Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

NHC has full attention to this that already they have possible recon for Saturday.

Oh I'm not saying they aren't watching out...but Investment is what I class as *full* attention, given thats when they can bring out a heck of alot more resources to track a system...

I'm sure its only a matter of time, no need to rush things I suppose with 93L doing what its doing right now.

Agree on that.They dont want to go thru the proccess of having invest up to then deactivate 24 hours later like 93L.

[northjaxpro]

weatherguy2, that is actually spot on the ECM track.

So the ECM continues to flip-flop vbetwewen an explosive system and nearly nothing...wonderful for confidence!

And WHERE is the invest!

KWT, I think it is safe to assume that this likely will be designated an invest today or tonight.

[SFLcane]

Latest GFS trends wont take much for a severe beating from either cuban mountains or Hispaniola.

[KWT]

KWT, I think it is safe to assume that this likely will be designated an invest today or tonight.

Yeah probably, mind you I've seen times where in the central Atlantic they wait till 30% so its no certainty it does become an invest today.

[Meso]

463
ABNT20 KNHC 181136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[SFLcane]

From this morning HPC discussion...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

FINALLY THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING FOR A DAY 7 FCST WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM FCST TO REACH CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. THE
VARIOUS DETAIL ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE LEAD TO FAVORING A BLEND OF
THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS SOLN
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE EXTRAPOLATION OF YDAYS
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA... WITH MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A TRACK A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT SPREAD.

[SFLcane]

Life in the USA would be a weekly disaster movie if you lived in the world of the GFS 8-day forecast.

[lonelymike]

anybody post a historical map

[HurricaneBelle]

I wonder if it's precisely because the model consensus is so strong for a Florida/SE Coast hit that they're not designating this an invest yet. At least here in the Tampa Bay area, I notice several of the local mets giving invests as much attention these days as TDs/TSs almost, along with presentation of the "spaghetti models". Perhaps by keeping it at sub-invest status, NHC is trying to keep panic down for a little while in this part of the country.

[lonelymike]

I dunno. I wonder what the pro mets thinking is. NHC doesn't seem too impressed at the moment and Wxman57 wasn't either yesterday (if I recall rightly)...be interesting to see...

[Aric Dunn]

I see models continue to be very consistent. very little deviation from sunday till now.

and last night 00z euro says alot

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[ROCK]

I see models continue to be very consistent. very little deviation from sunday till now.

and last night 00z euro says alot

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

lets see if the EURO sticks on the 12Z...personally I think the GFS is overcooking developement...but thats just me

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro Ensemble mean. Some bring it up the east coast of Florida...others into the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS Ensemble mean...majority take it into the Gulf after hitting the Keys

[bvigal]

Good Morning Fellow Campers!!

I think avoiding panic, or maybe more accurately, "hype", is precisely why this invest hasn't been posted. Make no mistake when it does get posted, you will see several past fixes... just because it isn't open to public scrutiny doesn't mean they aren't paying very close attention. It doesn't have to be so impressive right now, sucking in all that dust, look at the cloud motion. If the 48 probability of development is 10%, that doesn't mean the 96hr probability can't be 90%, and if so, you'll see something later today or tomorrow, it will be necessary.

Several mentioned mountains of Hispaniola, which I think is a very valid point. To follow the model loops across those mountains with scarcely a drop in intensity is like watching 'Lost in Space' - it's fiction, it doesn't happen. However, a large system (which this looks like right now), can quickly regain power, as energy is only cut off for a short time... and waters are very warm.

Got a kick out of the jokes about GFS tendency to exaggerate beyond 5 days. What gained my attention was Euro and Canadian models beginning to agree with GFS on this system developing in the same general vicinity. As to where it goes in mainland U.S., really too early to predict. There are too many variables, and only a slight change in even one could make a huge difference in track.

[SouthFLTropics]

The circulation on this pouch is massive. Haven't seen one like that in quite some time. I think a monkey in the wrench of the models may be that ULL that is sitting north of PR. I wonder what effect that will have on future 97L???

SFT

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The circulation on this pouch is massive. Haven't seen one like that in quite some time. I think a monkey in the wrench of the models may be that ULL that is sitting north of PR. I wonder what effect that will have on future 97L???

SFT

I have been watching that upper level low for a couple days and wondering the same thing. It could create shear or help it depending on where it is in relation to the storm. As far as changing the track I don't know.

[Ivanhater]

Updating the GFS list. The last 13 runs have consistently shown a major U.S hit.

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27

[Rob H]

I wonder if it's precisely because the model consensus is so strong for a Florida/SE Coast hit that they're not designating this an invest yet. At least here in the Tampa Bay area, I notice several of the local mets giving invests as much attention these days as TDs/TSs almost, along with presentation of the "spaghetti models". Perhaps by keeping it at sub-invest status, NHC is trying to keep panic down for a little while in this part of the country.

HB, Dave Osterberg on fox 13 gave a report on the wave this AM. Said he normally would not mention it since it is so far away but thought it
pertinent that every model has consistantly developed it and has it heading in the vicinity of Florida.

[SFLcane]

Here we go...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,