ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

96 HOURS...Just south of PR Coast

[Ivanhater]

102 hours...bombing out

[somethingfunny]

Looking at those closed lows at 72hrs on the front off of the Mid-Atlantic and out by the Cape Verde islands, are we sure 97L will be named Irene? I would not like Jose at all.

[KWT]

Heading towards Hispaniola, nearly identical to previous runs and the 00z UKMO run.

I still think its too quick to get this going...though strengthening does hold off till E.Caribbean.

[somethingfunny]

102 hours...bombing out

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

Let's see if it skirts the DR or makes a direct hit....and how the GFS handles that direct hit if it happens, because I don't trust how little it weakens over Hispaniola on these runs.

[Ivanhater]

108 hours...hitting the SE coast of Hispaniola

[Ivanhater]

114 hours...over Hispaniola

[Ivanhater]

120 hours..making its journey through Haiti...btw the GFS is weakening this over land

[caneseddy]

120 hours..making its journey through Haiti...btw the GFS is weakening this over land

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

Now watch it ramp it up again when it exits Hispaniola, although looking at the initialization point and where it is, it did initialize it a bit south, like KWT said..whether that makes a difference is still up in the air

[Ivanhater]

126 hours...about to emerge of the west coast of Haiti

[KWT]

Not really wekaneing it that much given its going over 1000+ mountions...you'd think it'd weaken miore then 1-2mbs!

Could be a spine of Cuba run this one...which would really be a big problem for its potenial development chances down the line if it hasn't really got going by then (which is possible)

Whats going to be interesting to watch is whether the ECM goes further north like it has done on previous runs.

[Ivanhater]

Not really wekaneing it that much given its going over 1000+ mountions...you'd think it'd weaken miore then 1-2mbs!

Could be a spine of Cuba run this one...which would really be a big problem for its potenial development chances down the line if it hasn't really got going by then (which is possible)

Well it is a global model so I would not go by the mb being shown. It does have the right idea of weakening at least

[ROCK]

it not weaken it that much IVAN.....that core would be jacked and wouldnt emerge intact like that...


personally, I think its overcooked as it enters the carib.....said that last night also...and the night before....

[Ivanhater]

132 hours...still heading pretty much due west

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't such a large circulation be less affected by Hispaniola? I know there would be significant weakening but I highly doubt we'd be looking at a remnant low in this situation. Ok on with the rest of the GFS .

[somethingfunny]

120 hours..making its journey through Haiti...btw the GFS is weakening this over land

[im g]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif[/im g]

From 997mb at its' 114hr DR landfall, to 999mb at 120hr, and then back to 997mb in that gulf between Haiti's two peninsulas at 126hr. Then 999mb again here at 132hr as it crosses the northern peninsula of Haiti.

[Ivanhater]

it not weaken it that much IVAN.....that core would be jacked and wouldnt emerge intact like that...

Well we are looking at the 500 mb heights, not a close up look of a core on the GFS...the idea of weakening is there though

[ROCK]

it not weaken it that much IVAN.....that core would be jacked and wouldnt emerge intact like that...

Well we are looking at the 500 mb heights, not a close up look of a core on the GFS...the idea of weakening is there though

good point...

[caneseddy]

Looks like its going to go south of Cuba into the Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

138 hour..slow crawl over the water between Haiti and Cuba