ATL: IRENE - Models

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#61 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:25 am

caneseddy wrote:Looks like its going to go south of Cuba into the Caribbean


It has pretty much stalled
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#62 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:25 am

there is its way out to the north....but aint going to take it....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#63 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:25 am

144 hours will not load the picture all the way , for me at least :D
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#64 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:26 am

If it would follow this path (assuming it develops) the islands would eat it up IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#65 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:26 am

does someone smell something?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#66 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:27 am

150 hours...over eastern Cuba

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#67 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:27 am

Well the fact that it started it a bit south, and its heading just north of west at the moment makes me think next run it will show a more northerly track. Over Puerto Rico or just north of it. IMO.
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Re: Re:

#68 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:27 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Well it is a global model so I would not go by the mb being shown. It does have the right idea of weakening at least


I'd suggests it way too strong in every department at that point it emerges from hispaniola...it weakenes but not nearly enough.

Heading into Cuba...I really think that track will not leave a whole lot left to the system, maybe a TD/weak TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#69 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:27 am

ROCK wrote:does someone smell something?


Not yet but the oven is preheating..not sure if this run will do it :wink:
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Re: Re:

#70 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:28 am

KWT wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
Well it is a global model so I would not go by the mb being shown. It does have the right idea of weakening at least


I'd suggests it way too strong in every department at that point it emerges from hispaniola...it weakenes but not nearly enough.

Heading into Cuba...I really think that track will not leave a whole lot left to the system, maybe a TD/weak TS.



yep...and also means steered more so by the lower levels....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#71 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:28 am

156 hours...taking a beating of Cuba, heading west. Trough is developing over the lakes though

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#72 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:29 am

162 hours...emerging off the southern Cuba coast into the Caribbean..should start to lift up soon

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#73 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:30 am

The GFS track shifted 150 miles north is a worry...the track the 12z GFS has thus far would not kill it on its own, but my word it'd come out a mess...

Still, take a look at history, some biggies have taken the track over HI/Cuba and emerged to be beasts.

Track maybe like Fay?
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#74 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:30 am

Still looks further south than 06z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#75 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:31 am

168 hours...looks like it is about to get tugged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#76 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:31 am

I can't read the pressure on 162hr. Is it intensifying along the southern coast? That red on red is worse than trying to read a Tinypic Capatcha verifier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#77 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:32 am

IVAN it aint going to lift up if its being steered by the lower levels. It just ate Hispa and half of Cuba for dessert.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#78 Postby caneseddy » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:32 am

Ivanhater wrote:168 hours...looks like it is about to get tugged
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif


You nailed it ...at 174 heading north over Central Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#79 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:32 am

174..getting tugged NW

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#80 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:33 am

Highly doupt in my view this thing survives all that land interaction...
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