ATL: IRENE - Models

[northjaxpro]

Ivanhater, I appreciate so much you outlining the history of the GFS model runs these past several days!

I was wondering if you or anyone else is doing the same for the Euro or the other dynamical models like the GFDL?

[KWT]

How about how slow the GFS moves this system through the Greater Antilles.....it seems to just creep westward over the course of several days, just waiting for any kind of weakness to hit...so the ridge doesn't look to be very strong over the Western Atlantic towards the end of the run....just enough to keep it crawling westward

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Yeah, that also argues for a weaker system giving the amount of time overland.

My main concern is the GFS has got a habit of under-estimating the upper high. The only thing that is helping that worry out is the fact that the other models broadly agree...for now!

[jlauderdal]

Make this 14 runs in a row!

Updated GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27

This is great work by you. I hope you can keep this up because it really helps show the consistency in summarized format vs comparing maps.

be good to get this pinned, good work by those that are updating it

[ROCK]

EURO coming out soon....oops already started..

[Kohlecane]

EURO coming out soon....

How is the Euro Timed

[Frank2]

This photo is another one of those "Go home, Frank!" moments from 30 years ago - Dr. Rosenthal (HRD Director at that time) would tell me that after my being at the DIFAX machine all night long...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

It was Stan's way of saying "Nothing there right now"...

LOL

P.S. Rest in peace, Stan...

[Vortex]

12z GFS Ensemble mean is showing one hell of a signature in the Gulf..heading generally toward Pensacola

Wouldnt surprise me abit if this crossed keys, possibly southern fl then into EGOM and turns into the weakness with a final landfal between Biloxi-Panama city....In fact thats my general forecast at this point

[ROCK]

the consistency of the GFS is about to be creamed by the mighty EURO......nothing but a TW 48hrs out...

let the model war begin....

[x-y-no]

the consistency of the GFS is about to be creamed by the mighty EURO......nothing but a TW 48hrs out...

let the model war begin....

GFS also has a tropical wave at 48 hours. Yes, there's a closed isobar - but nothing close to a closed circulation.

[caneseddy]

At 72 hours...starting to wind it up approaching the NE Caribbean

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[ROCK]

the consistency of the GFS is about to be creamed by the mighty EURO......nothing but a TW 48hrs out...

let the model war begin....

GFS also has a tropical wave at 48 hours. Yes, there's a closed isobar - but nothing close to a closed circulation.

I was being sarcastic...

[ROCK]

At 72 hours...starting to wind it up approaching the NE Caribbean

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

do you want to post the images as they update? no sense in us wasting bandwidth...

[caneseddy]

At 72 hours...starting to wind it up approaching the NE Caribbean

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

do you want to post the images as they update? no sense in us wasting bandwidth...

You go ahead..I can't post images from my work computer

[Portastorm]

Please make sure all images include text to put them in proper context.

[chaser1]

...hey, what the heck! I'll get in on this model "holy war" To be honest though, I think that the GFS is only now ( 48hr. ) just showing the first glimpse of any semblance of a closed 1009 week low, associated with this system. Will be anxious to see what the Euro shows at about 96 - 120 hr. period.

I do agree, when it comes to down to it, i'm in the Euro camp when it comes to longer range reliable nuances as it applies to track and intensity. Used to feel pretty good about the UK also, but some have felt that the UK has lost some "cred." I guess.

the consistency of the GFS is about to be creamed by the mighty EURO......nothing but a TW 48hrs out...

let the model war begin....

[ROCK]

EURO already coming in south than the 0Z...probably not enough to make a difference...though...

[Ivanhater]

96 hours..strengthening just south of PR...very similar to the GFS

[Vortex]

96 hours..strengthening just south of PR...very similar to the GFS

Very similar to the GFS so Far....and it appears abit stroner so far

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet also at 72 hours is spot on to the ecm/gfs....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif

[Ivanhater]

120 HOURS..TAKING A BEATING OVER Hispaniola