ATL: IRENE - Models

[ROCK]

96 hours..strengthening just south of PR...very similar to the GFS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... 6.gifquote]


Very similar to the GFS so Far....and it appears abit stroner so far

the 12Z GFS at 96 is slower than the EURO? looks like it...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everybody remember there isn't even a defined llc yet. Until there is everything, including the long range model projections, is just guess work.

[Vortex]

Getting tangled up over Hispanolia at 96 hours but nearly identical to gfs thus far...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[ROCK]

now theres a model that knows how to weaken a storm over land.....looks way more realistic IMO.....

[micktooth]

120 HOURS..TAKING A BEATING OVER Hispaniola

BTW, what's that out in the Eastern Atlantic that the Euro is showing?

[chaser1]

Just curious, being that I had not had a chance to see the Euro 12Z "initial" ( or the 24 hr. forecast for that matter ), where does the Euro actually "initialize" the invest?? I realize that we are of course dealing with a broad diffuse invest and that it is speculative as to where exactly the center is, but as was mentioned earlier in this post, 1 degree surely might make a world of difference as too what kind of storm ( or "Megacane" ) we might be looking at, considering the track going over land or not. My eyes are telling me that its up around 14N and given that we are not yet dealing with that stacked of a system, would not imagine that any WSW motion would occur as a result of the strong ridging to its north. Would likely just go with the lower flow westward or perhaps just N. or due west I would guess.

[northjaxpro]

Just curious, being that I had not had a chance to see the Euro 12Z "initial" ( or the 24 hr. forecast for that matter ), where does the Euro actually "initialize" the invest?? I realize that we are of course dealing with a broad diffuse invest and that it is speculative as to where exactly the center is, but as was mentioned earlier in this post, 1 degree surely might make a world of difference as too what kind of storm ( or "Megacane" ) we might be looking at, considering the track going over land or not. My eyes are telling me that its up around 14N and given that we are not yet dealing with that stacked of a system, would not imagine that any WSW motion would occur as a result of the strong ridging to its north. Would likely just go with the lower flow westward or perhaps just N. or due west I would guess.

It is possible the ridging could be stronger than what the models are initially picking up on as well. If ridging is stronger, then 97L could take on a more west-west/southwest trajectory down the road. This is only a possibility of course.

[cycloneye]

Hey everybody remember there isn't even a defined llc yet. Until there is everything, including the long range model projections, is just guess work.

That and to see doom scenarios and lala-land entretainment.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes it is could be taking a beating over Hispaniola. But look off the coast of Africa. We have more possible systems coming up. He he.

[Ivanhater]

144 hours...trying to get back together over water

[Vortex]

144 Eastern Cuba...or just S....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[northjaxpro]

Yes it is could be taking a beating over Hispaniola. But look off the coast of Africa. We have more possible systems coming up. He he.

We will see the CV train of waves for at least the next month or so. We are just now entering the heart of CV season.

[ROCK]

doesnt look all to healthy with ridging to the north...trof not digging like the GFS...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree Cycloneye so far this is entertainment. But I do like to get entertained with these model developments right now because in the near future these model plots may well be not that entertaining for someone.

[Vortex]

ECM seems to be settling with less spread....still GFS thus far is the king of of run to run consistancy...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everybody remember there isn't even a defined llc yet. Until there is everything, including the long range model projections, is just guess work.

That and to see doom scenarios and lala-land entretainment.

True, usually each season by now a GFS model storm has destroyed NYC.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yep that we will Northjaxpro. A long train of cv waves will be coming off Africa now.

[Vortex]

H168 intesification underway just S of cuba....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[Vortex]

Could be a central gulf threat this run....

[ROCK]

ridge holding...trof not as sharp...168hr