ATL: IRENE - Models

[Vortex]

216 blowing up in the yucatan channel...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

[Ivanhater]

Weakness over Central Gulf

[ROCK]

Weakness over Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

yep....and the Texas death ridge is retreating...hmmmm....LA just came into play...

[Ivanhater]

240 hours

[Ivanhater]

Extrapolated heading toward North Central Gulf coast

[Wx_Warrior]

That deserves a "katy, bar the door."

[SouthDadeFish]

Well um... it looks like we aren't gunna have 0 hurricanes for much longer....

[ROCK]

that really paints an ugly picture.....

[Vortex]

Again to reiterate, LA and points East to the carolinas need to be vigilant...It's likely somewhere along the gulf coast/Fl/carolinas will be impacted by a significant storm in 7-9 days....

[gatorcane]

That is about a 500+ mile swing at the end between the 00Z and 12Z Euro..needless to say no need to panic at all....

[Aric Dunn]

Still the first 5 days have not changed much at all... the end of run is now a flag flapping in the wind

[ROCK]

That deserves a "katy, bar the door."

I wondered where you ran off too....

[Ivanhater]

Now I know there a a lot of Euro huggers in here and they say the Euro starts the trends. Well see

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

BAMMS track north of Puerto Rico

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181855
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC THU AUG 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110818  1800   110819  0600   110819  1800   110820  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  39.4W   14.1N  42.6W   15.0N  46.6W   16.0N  51.0W
BAMD    13.6N  39.4W   14.3N  42.5W   15.2N  45.9W   16.1N  49.4W
BAMM    13.6N  39.4W   14.3N  42.5W   15.3N  46.3W   16.4N  50.4W
LBAR    13.6N  39.4W   13.9N  42.1W   14.7N  45.2W   15.6N  48.3W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110820  1800   110821  1800   110822  1800   110823  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  55.5W   18.6N  64.1W   18.6N  71.1W   17.8N  75.3W
BAMD    17.1N  52.7W   18.9N  58.8W   20.5N  63.3W   22.2N  67.0W
BAMM    17.6N  54.6W   19.4N  62.6W   19.9N  69.8W   19.0N  74.9W
LBAR    16.4N  51.4W   17.8N  57.3W   19.0N  60.8W   20.8N  61.6W
SHIP        50KTS          69KTS          80KTS          88KTS
DSHP        50KTS          69KTS          80KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  39.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 =  36.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  34.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Kory]

Weakness over Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

yep....and the Texas death ridge is retreating...hmmmm....LA just came into play...

Yep...if this plays out, not good for New Orleans.

[northjaxpro]

Again to reiterate, LA and points East to the carolinas need to be vigilant...It's likely somewhere along the gulf coast/Fl/carolinas will be impacted by a significant storm in 7-9 days....

Yeah, it is still early, but for the most part Vortex you are right. We are all going to have to be vigilant for the next 7-10 days. Unfortunately, it may be that our incredible luck of being spared a hit by a very signifcant tropical cyclone for nearly the past six years may be coming to an end very soon.

[BatzVI]

The BAMMS, etc all look a little too close for comfort...

[Vortex]

Extrapolated heading toward North Central Gulf coast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

Exploding ,and turnning NNW. Synoptics look to turn it into the weskness between biloxi and the the FL panhandle....Model agreement is high that recurature appears to take place between 80-85 W

[HurricaneWarning92]

Weakness over Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

yep....and the Texas death ridge is retreating...hmmmm....LA just came into play...

Yep...if this plays out, not good for New Orleans.

How about not good for anyone..

[ROCK]

Still the first 5 days have not changed much at all... the end of run is now a flag flapping in the wind

true.... we dont know how any interaction with land will change track.....needs to get to the islands first at what lat and intensity then we watch what happens over the islands...

I remember IVAN running right towards Jam then does this weird jump around....maybe 97L loops arounds the islands and the core stays offshore...that the most important part anyway...