ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

Only 190nm to the coat of Honduras. That's 12 more hours over water unless it jogs northward.

Isn't it about to slow down considerably?

Yeah, a bit, but models have it reaching NE Honduras around mid morning tomorrow. Not a lot of time remaining.

18Z models still say "INVEST"

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1800 110819 0600 110819 1800 110820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 80.4W 15.8N 82.2W 16.1N 83.9W 16.3N 85.6W
BAMD 15.4N 80.4W 15.6N 82.5W 15.6N 84.3W 15.5N 86.1W
BAMM 15.4N 80.4W 15.7N 82.2W 15.8N 83.8W 15.9N 85.5W
LBAR 15.4N 80.4W 15.5N 82.6W 16.0N 85.1W 16.5N 87.5W

[SouthDadeFish]

Up to 30 knots:

AL, 93, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 154N, 804W, 30, 1008, DB,

[Aric Dunn]

Only 190nm to the coat of Honduras. That's 12 more hours over water unless it jogs northward.

Isn't it about to slow down considerably?

Yeah, a bit, but models have it reaching NE Honduras around mid morning tomorrow. Not a lot of time remaining.

18Z models still say "INVEST"

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1800 110819 0600 110819 1800 110820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 80.4W 15.8N 82.2W 16.1N 83.9W 16.3N 85.6W
BAMD 15.4N 80.4W 15.6N 82.5W 15.6N 84.3W 15.5N 86.1W
BAMM 15.4N 80.4W 15.7N 82.2W 15.8N 83.8W 15.9N 85.5W
LBAR 15.4N 80.4W 15.5N 82.6W 16.0N 85.1W 16.5N 87.5W

yep but they have renumbered many times after... but dont think they will again unless they get some data.

[westwind]

well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.

Pressure is starting to fall:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=EST

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.

well that is unlikely.. because any center would be to far south for it cross directly over. but the pressures are falling quite fast right now. little more than normal afternoon pressure falls.

[cycloneye]

Nice loop that does not update.

[supercane]

Close-up view from earlier ASCAT:

Latest vis:

[HurrMark]

Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.

look a lot more organized now. with clear banding developing and convection firing..

[westwind]

:uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.

well that is unlikely.. because any center would be to far south for it cross directly over. but the pressures are falling quite fast right now. little more than normal afternoon pressure falls.

Yeah thats true I just worked out where the buoy is: now reporting pressure of 1009mb and falling rapidly with sustained winds of 23.3kt which is TD strength.

[HurrMark]

Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.

look a lot more organized now. with clear banding developing and convection firing..

I think the banding is status quo from several hours ago...the convection pattern has deteriorated somewhat. It may be a TD, but a poorly organized one...it will probably need another day to get itself going.

[Aric Dunn]

Its funny its probably going to come close the landfall tomorrow probably as a TS and wont be any warning..

[SouthDadeFish]

Banding features developing:

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....

[Aric Dunn]

Banding features developing:

yeah 1km visible is quite revealing. convection building all around the center. inflow is a vast improvement from this morning and overall structure.

[RL3AO]

I find it very hard to believe its not a tropical cyclone.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....

TD ... would say 99.999999 % lol

once we get more convection over the center in the next 6 hours or so TS is likely soon after.

[SouthDadeFish]

I find it very hard to believe its not a tropical cyclone.

You are not the only one. If this is not named at 5pm then the 8pm TWO should give near 100%. (Just my opinion)

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....

TD ... would say 99.999999 % lol

once we get more convection over the center in the next 6 hours or so TS is likely soon after.

Well I say maybe TS because estimates have been 2.0 for a while now and it is only looking better. Next would be 2.5=TS