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cycloneye
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Re:
BZSTORM wrote:quick question on tracking map which Luis posted last night which initials are model is ECM that everyone is talking about on the models page. thanks
The ECM is not among those models that are at the graphic.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
From HPC discussion.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS A SYSTEM OF CONCERN.
THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON DAY 03. AS RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ALOFT...AND MJO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR RAIN SQUALLS AND HEAVY
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS A SYSTEM OF CONCERN.
THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON DAY 03. AS RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ALOFT...AND MJO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR RAIN SQUALLS AND HEAVY
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE START TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40 WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THOSE SECTORS OF THE
ISLAND UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 40 WEST THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES WITH SOME VCSH/VCTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER TISX...TIST...TJMZ...AND TJPS UNTIL 18/23Z.
THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 30 30 40 40
STT 79 90 80 90 / 50 50 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE START TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40 WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THOSE SECTORS OF THE
ISLAND UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 40 WEST THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES WITH SOME VCSH/VCTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER TISX...TIST...TJMZ...AND TJPS UNTIL 18/23Z.
THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 30 30 40 40
STT 79 90 80 90 / 50 50 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
cycloneye wrote:From HPC discussion.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS A SYSTEM OF CONCERN.
THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON DAY 03. AS RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ALOFT...AND MJO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR RAIN SQUALLS AND HEAVY
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
the Guianas? so it will stay South of us, Luis?
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
msbee wrote:cycloneye wrote:From HPC discussion.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS A SYSTEM OF CONCERN.
THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON DAY 03. AS RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ALOFT...AND MJO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR RAIN SQUALLS AND HEAVY
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
the Guianas? so it will stay South of us, Luis?
That is the southern part of wave that goes to Guianas. Not sure yet where this will track exactly but we will know more by tommorow.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
OK, Luis
thanks
will continue to monitor
thanks
will continue to monitor
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/97L E of L Antilles
Updated discussion by San Juan NWS:
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
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ok so have potential TS making landfall approx 25miles south of me on current track given tonight for TD8 by NHC.
The 400km radar on BZ met is not working right now hopefully they will have it back up by tomorrow the 250KM static is working and the loop though.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-static
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-static
as my dsl connetion seems even worse today will post info as I get it and have connection. hoping the recon flight in morning doesnt get scuppered like todays.
The 400km radar on BZ met is not working right now hopefully they will have it back up by tomorrow the 250KM static is working and the loop though.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-static
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-static
as my dsl connetion seems even worse today will post info as I get it and have connection. hoping the recon flight in morning doesnt get scuppered like todays.
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this is this evenings forecast discussion from BZ Met (approx 6pm) pretty sure this is going to read allot differnt come 2morrow mornings dicussion
Date: THURSDAY 18TH AUGUST 2011
Time: EVENING
THE WX IMPROVED THIS EVENING AS SAT IMAGERY (VIZ / IR) SHOWED CLOUDINESS DECREASED WHILE
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED EARLIER ON RADAR OBS OVER INLAND AREAS DISSIPATED. SKIES
WERE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. A COUPLE BANDS OF WEAK-MOD
CONVECTION WERE OVER THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN DRIFTING W'WARDS WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IN
ASOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN SHOWED SIGNS OF CYCLONIC
TURNING. THE WV IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR OVER OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MAINLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE SHOWED MOISTURE RANGE 50-60mm.
SFC ANALYSIS (19/00Z) HAD A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W / 83W WITH A LIGHT NNE'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE GLFMEX. UPPER-LEVELS ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING AND NE'LY FLOW
OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE SFC-LOW-MID LVLS. AT UPPER LVLS AN INVERTED TROUGH / LOW WAS FURTHER WEST ACROSS YUCATAN / BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN ESE'LY FLOW ALOFT.
SKEW-T (19 / 00Z) SOUNDING SHOWED SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE TO NEAR 500hPa / 18,000ft. AND DRIER
ALOFT (PW 59.72mm) THE INDICES (KI 39.50, LIFTED -3.37, SHOW -2.45 AND CAPE 1333j/kg) SHOW A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRON.
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL. THE GFS SHOWS THE
LEAST DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM DEVELOPS A 1008hPa LOW OVER NE'RN
NICARAGUA DURING THE FCST PERIOD TO MOVE OVER THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EXTND AND OVER N'RN BZE SAT. NIGHT SUN. THE NGP TEMPORARILY FORMS A 1008hPa LOW OVER NE'RN HONDURAS / NICARAGUA THEN AS AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING W'WARDS. THE GFS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO TEMPORARLY BACK TO NNW'LY TOMORROW BUT TO BE MOSTLY NE'LY DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIOD THEN BECMG ESE'LY AFTER. THE NE'LY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE / SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA. AT UPPER LVLS THE HIGH CENTER ALOFT IS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO OVER SE'RN YUCATAN / BZE BY SAT MORNING AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SUN. THIS IS TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED MOD-DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIODS. THE GFS FCST RR AMTS OF .25-.5ins/6hrs DURING THE 3-DAY CYCLE. THE NAM PROGS SIMILAR AMTS DURING THE FCST PERIOD THEN A STEADY INCREASE DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE NGP FCST 2-8mm/12hrs TONIGNT THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE 3-DAY CYCLE.
FORECAST CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AND INLAND AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED:
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDEWRSTORMS OR PERIODS OF RAIN OVER MOST AREAS.
MARINE:
WINDS: N-NE 5-15 KTS.; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP-CHOPPY; WAVES: 2-4 FT.;
FORECASTER:
M. GENTLE.
Date: THURSDAY 18TH AUGUST 2011
Time: EVENING
THE WX IMPROVED THIS EVENING AS SAT IMAGERY (VIZ / IR) SHOWED CLOUDINESS DECREASED WHILE
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED EARLIER ON RADAR OBS OVER INLAND AREAS DISSIPATED. SKIES
WERE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. A COUPLE BANDS OF WEAK-MOD
CONVECTION WERE OVER THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN DRIFTING W'WARDS WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IN
ASOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN SHOWED SIGNS OF CYCLONIC
TURNING. THE WV IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR OVER OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MAINLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE SHOWED MOISTURE RANGE 50-60mm.
SFC ANALYSIS (19/00Z) HAD A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W / 83W WITH A LIGHT NNE'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE GLFMEX. UPPER-LEVELS ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING AND NE'LY FLOW
OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE SFC-LOW-MID LVLS. AT UPPER LVLS AN INVERTED TROUGH / LOW WAS FURTHER WEST ACROSS YUCATAN / BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN ESE'LY FLOW ALOFT.
SKEW-T (19 / 00Z) SOUNDING SHOWED SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE TO NEAR 500hPa / 18,000ft. AND DRIER
ALOFT (PW 59.72mm) THE INDICES (KI 39.50, LIFTED -3.37, SHOW -2.45 AND CAPE 1333j/kg) SHOW A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRON.
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL. THE GFS SHOWS THE
LEAST DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM DEVELOPS A 1008hPa LOW OVER NE'RN
NICARAGUA DURING THE FCST PERIOD TO MOVE OVER THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EXTND AND OVER N'RN BZE SAT. NIGHT SUN. THE NGP TEMPORARILY FORMS A 1008hPa LOW OVER NE'RN HONDURAS / NICARAGUA THEN AS AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING W'WARDS. THE GFS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO TEMPORARLY BACK TO NNW'LY TOMORROW BUT TO BE MOSTLY NE'LY DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIOD THEN BECMG ESE'LY AFTER. THE NE'LY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE / SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA. AT UPPER LVLS THE HIGH CENTER ALOFT IS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO OVER SE'RN YUCATAN / BZE BY SAT MORNING AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SUN. THIS IS TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED MOD-DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIODS. THE GFS FCST RR AMTS OF .25-.5ins/6hrs DURING THE 3-DAY CYCLE. THE NAM PROGS SIMILAR AMTS DURING THE FCST PERIOD THEN A STEADY INCREASE DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE NGP FCST 2-8mm/12hrs TONIGNT THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE 3-DAY CYCLE.
FORECAST CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AND INLAND AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED:
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDEWRSTORMS OR PERIODS OF RAIN OVER MOST AREAS.
MARINE:
WINDS: N-NE 5-15 KTS.; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP-CHOPPY; WAVES: 2-4 FT.;
FORECASTER:
M. GENTLE.
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Tropical depression 8 advisory#1
08/18/2011 10:49 PM EDT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 190249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHT TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/19/2011 12:06 AM EDT
000
WTNT63 KNHC 190406
TCUAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
AT 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
08/18/2011 10:49 PM EDT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 190249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHT TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/19/2011 12:06 AM EDT
000
WTNT63 KNHC 190406
TCUAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
AT 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=TD 8 in W Carib / 97L E of L Antilles
Good morning.
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND PULLS
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT LOW. A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 43W/44W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND AND AFFECTED
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT AROUND 2.1 INCHES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THINGS DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY SURGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN SCT SHRA. SHRA
CURRENTLY INCR PR TO NORTH LESSER ANTILLES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. GFS CONT THIS PATTERN FOR SAME AREA
MOST OF TODAY SO WILL EMPHASIZE MORE SHRA FOR VI SITES FOR UPCOMING
TAF UPDATES. FOCUS OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCR WILL AGAIN BE WESTERN PR IN DAYTIME HEAT. WIND BLO FL150 ESE
10-15 KTS THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 91 80 / 50 40 40 70
STT 89 79 91 82 / 50 40 40 70
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND PULLS
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT LOW. A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 43W/44W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND AND AFFECTED
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT AROUND 2.1 INCHES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THINGS DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY SURGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN SCT SHRA. SHRA
CURRENTLY INCR PR TO NORTH LESSER ANTILLES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. GFS CONT THIS PATTERN FOR SAME AREA
MOST OF TODAY SO WILL EMPHASIZE MORE SHRA FOR VI SITES FOR UPCOMING
TAF UPDATES. FOCUS OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCR WILL AGAIN BE WESTERN PR IN DAYTIME HEAT. WIND BLO FL150 ESE
10-15 KTS THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 91 80 / 50 40 40 70
STT 89 79 91 82 / 50 40 40 70
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=TD 8 in W Carib / 97L E of L Antilles
This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather of TD 8,97L and 98L.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=TD 8 in W Carib / 97L E of L Antilles
BZSTORM,Belize is now with a Tropical Storm Warning.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=TS Harvey in W Carib / 97L E of L A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND PULLS
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...INTERIOR
AND AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER WATERS AT AROUND
SUNSET. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING THE EASTERN ADJACENT ISLANDS.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...NOW EAST OF THE REGION....WILL MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL REGION LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUR MAIN CONCERN IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN TEMPO
TSRA IN TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 19/23Z. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SFC TO 20 K FT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
THEREFORE SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS FORECAST
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 40 40 70 70
STT 79 90 82 93 / 40 40 70 70
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND PULLS
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...INTERIOR
AND AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER WATERS AT AROUND
SUNSET. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING THE EASTERN ADJACENT ISLANDS.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...NOW EAST OF THE REGION....WILL MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL REGION LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUR MAIN CONCERN IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN TEMPO
TSRA IN TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 19/23Z. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SFC TO 20 K FT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
THEREFORE SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS FORECAST
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 40 40 70 70
STT 79 90 82 93 / 40 40 70 70
&&
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Looking at the storm map on Storm2K and its looking like a invest"ation" damn they are flying off the coast of africa. While I'm preoccupied by TS Harvey, you Island folk keep safe as well - just saw invest 97L just got ractched up to 60%. Appreciate everyone who's taking time to help me track Harvey while they have one eye also on this invest.
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Re:
BZSTORM wrote:Looking at the storm map on Storm2K and its looking like a invest"ation" damn they are flying off the coast of africa. While I'm preoccupied by TS Harvey, you Island folk keep safe as well - just saw invest 97L just got ractched up to 60%. Appreciate everyone who's taking time to help me track Harvey while they have one eye also on this invest.
You stay safe too BZSTORM..
it's a busy time for all of us, watching all these . but right now the biggest threat is to you with Harvey.
Be careful!
Belize reports here:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml
Barbara
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Too many hurricanes to remember
thxs msbee believe me after Hurr Iris I dont trust blindly any tracking were way to small a country and having had landfall swing from Belize city as landfall in morning by midday dangriga and it actually hit us at 5.30 but because were a peninsula we dont count as "land" so the official landfall was Monkey river. Same with Hurr Mitch storms in these waters do like to do sudden dips south, throwing off tracking. But there is a hope a not to strong TS will help clear up weird algae bloom we have in Southern Belize for nearly 2 months now and its spread out as far as the outer reef. Wrecking the fishing industry as well as marine tourism, free divers cant even see more than a foot in front of thier face to catch lobster. Visability is really really bad. And just seen latest advisory with note that hurricane conditions to be expected along Belize coast. Sheesh.......ok if posts get really far & few between it will be due to no current to run my modem. Will keep u all posted
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
BZSTORM wrote:thxs msbee believe me after Hurr Iris I dont trust blindly any tracking were way to small a country and having had landfall swing from Belize city as landfall in morning by midday dangriga and it actually hit us at 5.30 but because were a peninsula we dont count as "land" so the official landfall was Monkey river. Same with Hurr Mitch storms in these waters do like to do sudden dips south, throwing off tracking. But there is a hope a not to strong TS will help clear up weird algae bloom we have in Southern Belize for nearly 2 months now and its spread out as far as the outer reef. Wrecking the fishing industry as well as marine tourism, free divers cant even see more than a foot in front of thier face to catch lobster. Visability is really really bad. And just seen latest advisory with note that hurricane conditions to be expected along Belize coast. Sheesh.......ok if posts get really far & few between it will be due to no current to run my modem. Will keep u all posted
Here is the 11 PM advisory. Is now forecast to be a hurricane before landfall. Be careful there and when you can,post what is going on.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
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