ATL: IRENE - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Perhaps the models are starting to latch on the to the fact that this won't develop very quickly, thus taking it more westard. All that means however is the larger potential of a much dangerous storm entering the gulf....

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM loop...has it approaching the NE Caribbean in 72 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_072l.gif

[somethingfunny]

Up until now I'd have said SETX isn't in play because the Florida solution has been SO consistent. But now with this west trend (and the logic that a storm which plows into Hispaniola and shreds itself up would go with the low-level flow, westward, to the south of Cuba until it restrengthens - first alluded to by yesterday's 12z Euro) I really wouldn't keep anything out of play yet. Yesterday's 12z Euro had a redeveloping cyclone in the NW Gulf and a weakness over Texas at 240hr.

The exact initiation point of the LLC, the track regarding Hispaniola, the speed of re-intensification if it hits Hispaniola/Cuba, and the timing of the trough are all huge variables still at this time. It's funny how all this week it seemed like the agreement was so remarkable that we could narrow the cone from Apalachicola to Wilmington at 11 days out, and now at 10 days out the cone has re-widened to include Texas-Maine.

IF it is a hurricane by the time it reaches Hispaniola and/or Cuba, and IF it misses those islands and gets north of them unimpeded, I'd say the Gulf is still out of play anywhere west of Apalachicola.

Errrrr, I just noticed I made a pretty bad typo that needs correction. Yesterday's 12z Euro had a redeveloping cyclone in the NW Caribbean, not the NW Gulf. But it depicted a weakness leading towards the NW Gulf. Today's 12z Euro strengthens it/turns it north faster and is also faster with the weakness moving east.

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM over PR in 84 hours late sunday night..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

And there is your 12z Euro Ensemble mean...Majority Central Gulf

[Portastorm]

Now that's something to keep many of us up in the next few nights!

[Aric Dunn]

hehe... Yucatan to recurve between NC an bermuda.. lol

[KWT]

Yep ensembles have been shifting westwards a little in the last few days. Whilst I'd give alot of weight with the ops because they are going to have a much better grip on the strength of the system, the fact the ECM shifted well west and I do think the GFS is slowly shifting SW with time as well is a big clue for the future trend.

Longgest thread since Ike 2008 here we come!

[stormhunter7]

uh... the anniversary of Katrina is when? Boy, will the media have a field day with this late next week! (if it developes and tracks into GOM)

[gatorcane]

Yeah, I am not sure we can say there is a west trend here. Look at those GFS ensembles sniffing out the deep eastern CONUS trough towards the end with a quick bend to the north, several of them now going east of Florida also...Even the BAMs show a sharp turn prior to the GOM, though EASTERN GOM certainly has several runs through it.

And...those ENSEMBLEs expect a slight south of west movement to commence soon...let's watch if that happens. Could mean the difference between a Hispaniola hit or not.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep ensembles have been shifting westwards a little in the last few days. Whilst I'd give alot of weight with the ops because they are going to have a much better grip on the strength of the system, the fact the ECM shifted well west and I do think the GFS is slowly shifting SW with time as well is a big clue for the future trend.

Longgest thread since Ike 2008 here we come!

well actually there is no trend.. this a track the euro has had a couple times now. and even the gfs.. nothing new here. beyond 5 days is the flag flapping... up to 5 days is in remarkable agreement and has been. nothing has changed. average over last few days for euro and gfs for after 5 days is basically up west coast of florida... ( just an estimate)



Also notice everytime the euro went over hispaniola it took a track over or near the NW carrib and into gulf. so again the synoptics still point to through or just north of Hispaniola

Here are the most recent EURO runs I could find

8/15 12z: 8/25 Bahamas
8/16 00z: 8/26 -Eastern Bahamas
8/16 12z: system dies over Hispaniola
8/17 00z: 8/28-intense hurricane off of SC/GA border
8/17 12z: shredded over Hispaniola and heads into NW Caribbean as a weak low
8/18 00z: 8/26-off of East coast of Florida and 8/27 landfall in SC
8/18 12z: 8/28: intense hurricane in the Central Gulf after going over Hispaniola

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah, I am not sure we can say there is a west trend here. Look at those GFS ensembles sniffing out the deep eastern CONUS trough towards the end with a quick bend to the north, several of them now going east of Florida also...Even the BAMs show a sharp turn prior to the GOM, though EASTERN GOM certainly has several runs through it.

I don't see a recurve if it enters the Carib...It will be too far south to feel any trough. Plus, I think the High will build in further west, preventing any recurve....

[HurricaneWarning92]

yeah how is that a trend? plus the ensembles initiate it going south of west... its been moving north of west...

[TwisterFanatic]

yeah how is that a trend? plus the ensembles initiate it going south of west... its been moving north of west...

I don't see it.. Due west to me.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS starts updating in 10 mins...

[caneseddy]

18z GFS running.....

[KWT]

Lets see what the 18z does, whether it lifts in WNW through Hispaniola or whether it continues todays idea of taking it W into Cuba as well...

That could actually result in a rather large difference between the solutions on offer here (the Bahamas idea and the Caribbean into Gulf idea.)

Broad synoptics are the same Aric but small track differences make the difference between it latching onto the dying weakness at 144hrs before the upper high rebuilds and scooting up the east coast/just inland or it being weakened by prolonged land interaction and missing that last connection and trucking west/WNW into the Caribbean like the ECM suggests.

[caneseddy]

Is it me or is the 18z GFS initializing again a bit south of where the estimated center is?

[KWT]

Maybe just a touch stronger by 48hrs then the previous run but pretty much the same.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...60 Hours.....getting going right on cue Sunday