ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

KWT · #1341 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:47 pm

Probably is a TD, little hard to deny that given the presentation.

Either way the approach to land will give a good indication through obs whether its got an LLC or not.

Aric Dunn · #1342 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:48 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....

TD ... would say 99.999999 % lol

once we get more convection over the center in the next 6 hours or so TS is likely soon after.

Well I say maybe TS because estimates have been 2.0 for a while now and it is only looking better. Next would be 2.5=TS

yeah its possible.. but figured would a little conservative being that with pressures falls there is always a lag in the winds..

#1343 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:52 pm

Its the old debate about do you treat something over the open atlantic as you would when its near land.

Its probably (IMO it is) a tropical cyclone right now. Should you wait for 100% proof though when its going to be impacting land within 24 hours?

Aric Dunn · #1344 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:56 pm

Econus is in rapid scan mode...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#1345 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:04 pm

93L's progress today:

1415Z:

2045Z:

#1346 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:06 pm

Looking at MIMIC-TWP

Live link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Circulation getting squashed, seems to be struggling.

#1347 Postby **MGC** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:07 pm

I caution some that the satellite presentation can be quite deceiving. I've seen many a system that looks like a TD or TS but does not have a closed circulation at the surface. We will need recon or a ship report to verify that 93L has closed off before upgrading. If 93L is not a TD it could be at any time as it does look good and has plenty of mid level spin. I think it will close off before reaching land.....MGC

Aric Dunn · #1348 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:22 pm

pressure down to 1008 at buoy .. which is about 50 to 75 miles NNW of center.. pressure in center is probably near 1004

actually its straight north of center ... more like a 100 miles

Aric Dunn · #1349 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:30 pm

Im actually pretty baffled they have not released even a special update... or something.. very weird.

FireRat · #1350 Postby **FireRat** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:40 pm

Looking at this I find it hard we don't have a TD. Anyways, it's gearing toward Honduras where they could expect severe rainfall impact tomorrow!

KWT · #1351 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Im actually pretty baffled they have not released even a special update... or something.. very weird.

I suppose they must think it just doesn't have a closed LLC,Wxman57 did say earlier he had doubts about that.

Florida1118 · #1352 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:47 pm

KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Im actually pretty baffled they have not released even a special update... or something.. very weird.

I suppose they must think it just doesn't have a closed LLC,Wxman57 did say earlier he had doubts about that.

Yeah, unless their certain, its not going to be upgrade. It is VERY close though IMO.

#1353 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:geez 98L too now.. lol

The wet MJO has arrived.

#1354 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Im actually pretty baffled they have not released even a special update... or something.. very weird.

I agree. I'm thinking they may be gun-shy because of the last couple of storms that looked good on satellite but had no LLC. But as we've all been saying here, if you can't get RECON in, you have to use all of the other tools and come to a reasonable decision, and you might have to move quicker than you want to if it's threatening land. So my other suspiciion is that they figure Honduras will be on the weak side...

#1355 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:geez 98L too now.. lol

Holy wow! I usually catch those because I love watching easterly waves come off Africa, but I totally missed that. That's impressive! OK, back on topic.

#1356 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:56 pm

So Recon had mechanical difficulties and had to turn around.
Isn't it odd how many missions have had to be aborted this season?
Don't know if it is funding or anything other than just an odd occurence.
If, and when we get a real threat this could be a bad situation.
Sure is frustrating too.......

#1357 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:04 pm

With each new visible frame I see, this thing is really wrapping up...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

This is now on my fictitious list of "best looking invests ever"

HurrMark · #1358 Postby **HurrMark** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:06 pm

Well, it looks like the next recon will start on its way in a couple of hours, so we should have some idea of what it is before landfall...whether tomorow or later on.

KWT · #1359 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:12 pm

It does look very good i have to admit, will be interesting to see what recon finds.

#1360 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:12 pm

Yeah, my list too, lol. and I'm glad to hear another plane is going out. I really think we have aTS considering the way pressures are dropping in the area and the great presentation on satellite.

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