ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

KWT · #161 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:58 pm

280 degrees takes it right into Hispaniola from this point, and to be fair most models are suggesting that.

The key to avoid a fate like Emily is for there to be less shear then it had, that was the factor that tipped Emily over the edge.

#162 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:07 pm

convection on the decrease....its strange. It seems there is something that is just keeping these systems at check this year in the deep tropics (dry air and SAL??? Solar flares?).

If this one does not develop into a hurricane (not because of land interaction), wow another bust for the models. They are having a tough time this year it seems, though I still think the ECMWF is performing the best as far as not being overbullish on intensity. Still, even it is bombing this system out in the end.

caneseddy · #163 Postby **caneseddy** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:convection on the decrease....its strange. It seems there is something that is just keeping these systems at check this year in the deep tropics (dry air and SAL??? Solar flares?).

If this one does not develop into a hurricane (not because of land interaction), wow another bust for the models. They are having a tough time this year it seems, though I still think the ECMWF is performing the best as far as not being overbullish on intensity. Still, even it is bombing this system out in the end.

Patience, patience....remember that most models do not develop this until Sunday at the earliest so don't expect any intensification until then

ConvergenceZone · #164 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:11 pm

Yep, I agree Gator. If this system goes poof, good luck getting ANYONE to ever pay attention to the models again. I know I won't be paying attention to them.....

#165 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:11 pm

Yeah I agree its going to take at lest 2-3 days to get going....

KWT · #166 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:21 pm

Yep its going to take some time, to be fair there is a big SAL outbreak just to the north, your going to get times, esp as Dmin where the convection really struggles.

Also note most models take at LEAST another 3-4 days to get going (ECM takes more like 4-5 days) so no need to worry about development just yet.

Agreed about the ECM gatorcane.

#167 Postby **OuterBanker** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:22 pm

Just about everyone is saying that 97L won't get anything going until 55 or 60W. Conditions are just not there. Also, night is falling. It's frustrating I know, but wait a couple days before writing this off. I really does have a beautiful llc. Just wait for the convection.

KWT · #168 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:28 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Just about everyone is saying that 97L won't get anything going until 55 or 60W. Conditions are just not there. Also, night is falling. It's frustrating I know, but wait a couple days before writing this off. I really does have a beautiful llc. Just wait for the convection.

Typically these broad systems do take a little while to get going even in better conditions so thats another factor that should prevent much development for a little while yet.

#169 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah I agree its going to take at lest 2-3 days to get going....

I think once the system reaches about 60 degrees longitude is when I think the conditions will begin to become more conducive for organization.

SouthFLTropics · #170 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:42 pm

I could be mistaken but it looks to me that this thing is gaining some latitude. I'm still wondering what that ULL to the Northeast of PR is going to do with this thing. I think that may be the fly in the ointment of the models right now.

SFT

KWT · #171 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:44 pm

Does look that way to me as well, not sure whether we are just being fooled though because the circulation isn't all that well defined looking at the vis.imagery.

#172 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:55 pm

Is the ULL progged to weaken and move north as time progresses? It seems the ULL well northeast of the Leeward Islands currently looks rather well-defined right now looking at water vapor imagery.

bamajammer4eva · #173 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:57 pm

With that 12z EURO model in mind-here's a thought... If 93L, 98L and something else were to form and get a name before 97L this could become this years K storm which of course is a brand new name since the last K storm in this years list was retired about 6 yrs ago. Wouldnt be impossible considering the fact that it's a slow developer. 8-)

robbielyn · #174 Postby **robbielyn** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:30 pm

97L is in marginally warm wtrs 80 degrees. further west in around 48 hours it will tap into 85 degree water sure that will give it some fuel.

KWT · #175 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:37 pm

Yeah the system needs all the help it can get against the slug of SAL that is heading westwards with it.

#176 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:40 pm

robbielyn wrote:97L is in marginally warm wtrs 80 degrees. further west in around 48 hours it will tap into 85 degree water sure that will give it some fuel.

And more fuel will be the heat content after 50W.

#177 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:39 pm

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #178 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

Up to 20% !

#179 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:45 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

Up to 20% !

And not going as fast as before. It was at 20 mph,now down to 15.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #180 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

Up to 20% !

And not going as fast as before. It was at 20 mph,now down to 15.

Nice observation!

ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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