ATL: IRENE - Models

[caneseddy]

Starting to intensify at +66...so far same track as 12z run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal066.gif

[Ivanhater]

Looks like 93L could get named and GFS is showing 98L developing before 97L. This could potentially be Jose

[Ivanhater]

72 hours

[caneseddy]

Looks like 93L could get named and GFS is showing 98L developing before 97L. This could potentially be Jose

And you know what the ironic thing would be....if this does happen, we have almost caught up to 2005 in terms of named storms..of course, all the ones this season have been anything but TS

[Ivanhater]

78 hours...continuing to intensify

[caneseddy]

I still can't believe how consistent the GFS has been with this system

[Ivanhater]

84 hours...passing just south of PR

[KWT]

Broadly the same path as the 12z run...what a surprise eh!

[Ivanhater]

90 HOURS...Approaching SE Hispaniola

[cycloneye]

Looks like 93L could get named and GFS is showing 98L developing before 97L. This could potentially be Jose

Interesting,if that occurs,the name Jose is one of the most popular in PR and other Caribbean countries.

[Ivanhater]

96 hours..

[KWT]

I still can't believe how consistent the GFS has been with this system

when one model is this keen on a track, usually that is the one to keep an eye on...

[Ivanhater]

102 hours...sliding along the southern coast of Hispaniola

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like 93L could get named and GFS is showing 98L developing before 97L. This could potentially be Jose

Interesting,if that occurs,the name Jose is one of the most popular in PR and other Caribbean countries.

Jose has to go to Texas and or Mexico. It just has to.

[fci]

ok looking at the models and correct me if i am wrong i am still new to this and i am still learning it is showing the ridge that is over TX to weaken and move to the west giving this system a better chance of making land fall on the coast around LA and MS and if this senario happens then it is looking close to making land fall 6 years after katrina very close to the same date if not the same date but if the ridge does not retreat to the west we are looming at maybe more of a florida land fall. and what strenth of a hurrican would be with a 922 MB Pressure. again please correct me if i am wrong i am still trying to learn.

Hey, first thing is not to be afraid to ask questions!!

No one has answered you yet, and I am not trained well so I can't give you a complete answer.
But, given where this is and the time it would take to get to the GOM, the best thing to do is to follow along and learn what you can from the comments in the discussion forum for 97L as well as this model thread.
Personally, I don't like to correlate dates on the calendar although "Firerat" does present a huge set of evidence that there are indeed correlations. I let him explain, it is a bit confusing.
Anyway, keep watching and learning and hopefully some one will see my re-post of your post and can speak to the high and potential issue for the GOM coast.

[Ivanhater]

108 hours...over Hispaniola

[KWT]

Over Hispaniola...and stronger...ok then...

Track taking it over the southern portion of the countries.

[South Texas Storms]

Is it more south than the 12z run so far? Looks like it to me...

[Ivanhater]

114 hours...weakening over Haiti

[Ivanhater]

Is it more south than the 12z run so far? Looks like it to me...

Almost exactly the same so far