ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

If this can stay at least 50 miles north of Honduras (big if) I think there is a pretty fair chance we will see Hurricane Harvey from this. (Just my opinion)

[HurrMark]

Shoot...I got the wrong date mixed up. At least from what I can see, there is no recon tonight...none till tomorrow morning...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
C. 18/1430Z
D. 15.0N 80.0W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[KWT]

Looks like its probably south of 16N, going to have to pick up some latitude pretty soon!

[ozonepete]

that's too bad with no RECON. oh well...

[ozonepete]

The steering winds are still forecast to drop off a lot. That will be very significant for intensification if it occurs.

[SouthDadeFish]

The steering winds are still forecast to drop off a lot. That will be very significant for intensification if it occurs.

And the waters of the NW Carib are the most notorious in the entire Atlantic Basin for quick intensification.

[tailgater]

This being a fairly small system it Could ramp up Quickly and vysa versa. And as Ozonepete said:
The steering winds are still forecast to drop off a lot. That will be very significant for intensification if it occurs.
Might even gain a little lattitude before being smash WSW.

[BigA]

Could someone post a link of the steering currents or tell me where I can find them? Much thanks. Also agree that it's probably a 35-45 mph tropical cyclone right now.

[tailgater]

I like this site, Lots of good info. Click on North Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[HurrMark]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Satellite images indicate that the low-level circulation associated
with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea is becoming
better-defined and a surface low could be forming about 100 miles
east-northeast of Cape Gracias a Dios Nicaragua. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for a tropical depression to form as
long as the disturbance remains offshore. This system has a high
chance...80 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland over Central America. Tropical-storm-conditions are
possible along the coasts of Honduras...the Bay Islands...Guatemala
and Belize during the next day or two as the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.

[GCANE]

TCFA Up

[Hurricaneman]

It possibly looks like were going to start advisories at 11

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Could someone post a link of the steering currents or tell me where I can find them? Much thanks. Also agree that it's probably a 35-45 mph tropical cyclone right now.

Hey there, if you don't knnow how to get through CIMSS via the link that tailgater posted, here's the direct link to their steering winds page:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

[Ptarmigan]

I think 93L could become Harvey soon, especially the slower it moves.

[ozonepete]

I agree with Aric. They should be issuing some kind of special statement. Even if Honduras is on the weak side, there's still the chance of flooding and mudslides.

[CrazyC83]

You can't really be cautious right now since a Tropical Storm Warning would be needed right away for Honduras. If there is a solid evidence of a circulation, they should go ahead right away and call it TD8 so the warnings can go out.

[ozonepete]

You can't really be cautious right now since a Tropical Storm Warning would be needed right away for Honduras. If there is a solid evidence of a circulation, they should go ahead right away and call it TD8 so the warnings can go out.

Yep. Unless they know something we don't.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110819 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  0000   110819  1200   110820  0000   110820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  81.5W   15.6N  83.1W   15.8N  84.8W   16.2N  86.6W
BAMD    15.4N  81.5W   15.5N  83.5W   15.5N  85.3W   15.5N  87.4W
BAMM    15.4N  81.5W   15.6N  83.2W   15.6N  84.8W   15.7N  86.6W
LBAR    15.4N  81.5W   15.6N  83.8W   16.1N  86.2W   16.6N  88.8W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          46KTS          54KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          36KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  0000   110822  0000   110823  0000   110824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  88.5W   17.6N  93.0W   17.9N  97.4W   18.3N 100.8W
BAMD    15.5N  89.6W   15.3N  94.4W   15.1N  98.7W   15.3N 101.9W
BAMM    16.0N  88.7W   16.4N  93.5W   16.7N  98.0W   16.9N 101.4W
LBAR    17.3N  91.5W   18.9N  97.3W   20.7N 101.9W   21.5N 105.1W
SHIP        64KTS          80KTS          90KTS          98KTS
DSHP        45KTS          29KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.4N LONCUR =  81.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  15.3N LONM12 =  79.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  15.2N LONM24 =  76.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM