ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Could be Harvey, Irene, Jose ... or "poof." Like ConvergenceZone said, the way 2011 is playing out ... this one probably becomes first
hurricane as it goes deep sea fishing.
hurricane as it goes deep sea fishing.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
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I suspect given the position of the Bermuda high in the 5-10 day period it could well be a threat to funnily enough Bermuda if it does end up developing.
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Very impressive wave.. likely going to develop rather quickly.
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
18z GFS has this at around 23N/50W...but importantly the Bermuda high is strengthening directly north of it.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
30%
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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- TwisterFanatic
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Wow.. 30% coming off the coast!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Come On people. Still way too early to know where either 97L or 98L will wind up going. Over a week or more away for both. 98L looks to be the stronger of the systems to come into the Atlantic basin though. But the tropics are active....and so will be the banter.
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Not at all surprised they went code orange, especially given the circulation it has at the moment!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
00z Best Track
AL, 98, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 127N, 183W, 25, 1007, DB
AL, 98, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 127N, 183W, 25, 1007, DB
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 190048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110819 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000 110820 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 18.3W 13.1N 19.5W 13.9N 20.9W 14.9N 22.6W
BAMD 12.7N 18.3W 13.2N 19.4W 14.2N 20.4W 15.5N 21.4W
BAMM 12.7N 18.3W 13.5N 19.5W 14.5N 20.6W 15.6N 22.0W
LBAR 12.7N 18.3W 13.5N 20.1W 14.6N 22.0W 15.8N 23.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110821 0000 110822 0000 110823 0000 110824 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 24.5W 17.4N 29.3W 18.8N 34.4W 20.2N 39.5W
BAMD 17.1N 22.8W 20.6N 26.9W 23.3N 30.7W 23.8N 33.3W
BAMM 16.9N 23.8W 19.4N 29.1W 21.8N 35.2W 24.2N 41.3W
LBAR 17.3N 25.8W 20.7N 29.9W 23.8N 34.0W 26.2N 37.4W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 49KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 49KTS 39KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 18.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 16.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 13.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Hylian Auree
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Yep, seems like this could be a Julia-like system, recurve included
Might even get a J-name, even though at this rate it's more likely this'll become Irene.
Might even get a J-name, even though at this rate it's more likely this'll become Irene.
Last edited by Hylian Auree on Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Up to 40%
2 AM TWO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
2 AM TWO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Looking good this morning on the first visible satellite image:
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z GFS has this system near Bermuda.
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