ATL: IRENE - Models

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#361 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:41 pm

216 headed for Texas

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#362 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:41 pm

Ivanhater wrote:204 hours...beast in the central gulf

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smelling it now IVAN? :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#363 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:41 pm

240 hours...Ouch

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#364 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 pm

Hmmm weakness is very well...weak...

Could go anywhere this run, upper high is still strong so not impossible this ends up over S.Texas or could well head towards the central Gulf where there is still something of a weakness...

Much further west this run though...trend? I'll leave that upto you guys to discuss...
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#365 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 pm

My reunion is not gonna happen with this run, lol

Is that a big weakness over LA that it will head to or will it continue to TX?

Can someone tell me how to spot a weakness on those maps? I always look for the red between the purple but I am starting to think I have it all wrong. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#366 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 pm

Headed for Houston

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#367 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 pm

:eek: one for the ages right there....folks. :eek: ...where is Portastorm....

west trend continues...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#368 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:43 pm

Well that would definitely be a droughtbuster...unfortunately it will bust up alot of other things too!

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#369 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:43 pm

Holy smokes. This changes everything...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#370 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:43 pm

Holy moly! WOW!

Bye bye drought?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#371 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:43 pm

276..landfall Houston

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#372 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:44 pm

Uh oh Rock. Uh oh me in College Station! No school? lol it is still so far away...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#373 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:44 pm

:eek:

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#374 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:44 pm

This is almost surely the first big swing of many. This just goes to show that EVERYONE is still in play.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#375 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:44 pm

this run would really suck...BTW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#376 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:44 pm

And we all thought Ike was bad... :eek:
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#377 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:45 pm

Weakens before landfall but still thats probably quite a strong hurricane there...ouch!
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#378 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:45 pm

Rain, great!!! In that form, NO THANK YOU!!!! what is pressure at landfall?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#379 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:45 pm

Time to update the GFS!

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
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Re:

#380 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:46 pm

BigB0882 wrote:This is almost surely the first big swing of many. This just goes to show that EVERYONE is still in play.


Yeah exactly, my big fear is though the ECM also shifted westwards a little on its last couple of runs.

not impossible this shifts the whole way to Mexico...I grant you its an outside risk!
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