ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#381 Postby caneseddy » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:46 pm

Awwwww come on GFS...you were so consistent with a landfall around Florida and now you have to throw a monkey wrench into this and pulverize Houston
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#382 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:46 pm

The Gulf has certainly come to the forefront today!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#383 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:47 pm

Time to update the GFS!

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
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Re:

#384 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:47 pm

jwayne wrote:Rain, great!!! In that form, NO THANK YOU!!!! what is pressure at landfall?


968mbs...you probably shave some of that as well...very likely a 3/4 into Texas on that run.

Is the GFDl/HWRF going to be run tonight, they could be interesting to say the least!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#385 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:47 pm

ROCK wrote:this run would really suck...BTW


ROCK, I'll make sure my guest room is ready for ya! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#386 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:47 pm

as always the EURO leads the way.... :lol: man that is a deep monster...Carla comes to mind...though I wasnt born yet...I have read her report.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#387 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:48 pm

So far the GFS has hit a few Gulf coast cities :lol:

Houston
New Orleans
Pensacola
Tampa
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#388 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:48 pm

Its not too different from another biggie storm from history trackwise:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

not perfect but not a bad match for that run overall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#389 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:49 pm

Euro shows between Nola and Destin while the GFS shows Houston. Let's see what tonight brings!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#390 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:49 pm

Well this next week is certainly going to be crazy for most of the Gulf and possibly the East Coast as well! Tonight's models will be very interesting to say the least!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#391 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:So far the GFS has hit a few Gulf coast cities :lol:

Houston
New Orleans
Pensacola
Tampa



problem is that as we closer, things are moving west. Reminds me of a certain storm called Ike?!?!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#392 Postby red herring » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:51 pm

Houston, tenemos un problema!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#393 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:51 pm

jwayne wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:So far the GFS has hit a few Gulf coast cities :lol:

Houston
New Orleans
Pensacola
Tampa



problem is that as we closer, things are moving west. Reminds me of a certain storm called Ike?!?!



Very true buddy. Let's see if the west trend continues in the next few days.
Oh dang the 18z GFS made me forget about my 1000th post! :lol:
Last edited by South Texas Storms on Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#394 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:51 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Time to update the GFS!

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30




Hey Texas is representing...I like it.... especially since its the 18Z and it only shows it once,,,, :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#395 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:51 pm

Ivanhater wrote:So far the GFS has hit a few Gulf coast cities :lol:

Houston
New Orleans
Pensacola
Tampa


Yes, it is definitely making the Gulf tour on it's runs. As always this will all come down to where and when the eventual LLC takes up shop. I would expect some additional flopping in the models before it is said and done. With that being said I think the greatest threat is from the Rio Grande up to the NC Outer Banks... :A:

SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#396 Postby bamajammer4eva » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:52 pm

According to the 18z GFS and the size of the Isobars, the storm is so huge that the center hits houston but the rains and winds of at least tropical storm force would stretch all the way to Florida :eek:

Image
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#397 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:53 pm

Well the 18z totally destroys the previous GFS runs show and shifts well west.

Had a feeling we were about to see a westward trend from the 18z GFS...

Its always wierd whenthe GFS is west of the ECM...but they both have shifted to the central Gulf...

We will have to see what the 00z suite shows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#398 Postby lonelymike » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:54 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:According to the GFS and the size of the Isobars, the storm is so huge that the center hits houston but the rains and winds of at least tropical storm force would stretch all the way to Florida :eek:




Panic Chaos and Disorder :double: All I can say the GFS and sadly the Euro haven't got a clue.

Rock I guess if the 18z verifies you'll have no power and A/C and then you can eventually smell like what you shower in :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#399 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:55 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:According to the GFS and the size of the Isobars, the storm is so huge that the center hits houston but the rains and winds of at least tropical storm force would stretch all the way to Florida :eek:


can you imagine the surge from that!!! the whole GOM would be inudated...Galveston would be gone...as well as some cities inland under water....massive evacs would need to take place for real ala Rita....
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Re: Re:

#400 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:57 pm

KWT wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:This is almost surely the first big swing of many. This just goes to show that EVERYONE is still in play.


Yeah exactly, my big fear is though the ECM also shifted westwards a little on its last couple of runs.

not impossible this shifts the whole way to Mexico...I grant you its an outside risk!



No way it goes to MX if that TX Ridge is retreating like that. It will take that TX ridge holding and expanding eastward over most of the northern half of the Gulf to drive this to MX and none of the models have shown such thus far.
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