ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

According to the 18z GFS and the size of the Isobars, the storm is so huge that the center hits houston but the rains and winds of at least tropical storm force would stretch all the way to Florida

It does look like a rather large hurricane on the 18z, the ECM isn't quite as large but they are both still suggesting pretty impressive strengthening in the gulf.

[Ivanhater]

The models will eventually even out...Central Gulf coast is not sitting pretty but it is very far out. The uncertainty did get bigger today. Anywhere from Texas to the East coast keep an eye out

[Kory]

The Euro always sniffs out a pattern change before the GFS.

[jwayne]

According to the 18z GFS and the size of the Isobars, the storm is so huge that the center hits houston but the rains and winds of at least tropical storm force would stretch all the way to Florida

cannot say I remember seeing something that bad on our doorstep on a model inside of 10 days save maybe Rita???

[bamajammer4eva]

Of course it has to form first... and then survive land/shear/dry air etc.

[CourierPR]

Of course it has to form first... and then survive land/shear/dry air etc.

That is correct. Much will depend on how quickly this forms and how far north or south it forms. Those factors could influence later model runs.

[StormClouds63]

Ike ... part 2 ... at least size-wise.

Of course, this is all speculation at this point.

Florida vs. Texas posters will have something to discuss. Unless ... this thing just "poofs."

[Kory]

Now it looks like we may have some consistancy in having the system in the Gulf. From there, anyone from Veracruz to Tampa need to watch this closely.

[CourierPR]

Now it looks like we may have some consistancy in having the system in the Gulf. From there, anyone from Veracruz to Tampa need to watch this closely.

Kory, I love your enthusiasm but I think it's too soon to narrow the playing field to an area between Tampa and Veracruz.

[bella_may]

Man I sure do hate when these things track towards the gulf! Especially since I'm on the miss. Coast.right in the middle of the track! Lol

[Countrygirl911]

i know it is several days away and what i am seeing is everyone from FL to TX has to watch this close. in my opinion i am thinking that there is a good chance that it will make landfall between La and TX but that is my opinion for now it could change depending on what the models show over the next few days. but for some reason i an leaning more towards somewhere on LA coast to SE TX coast. i am praying that it never develops or threatens the US at all but if it hits the US that people have enought time and help to get out of its way or if hits LA i just pray it is not like Katrina i know during gustav that they were watching the leveies closely because they were so close to topping over and it this one is stronger then there is a higher chance the levies could be topped over. again i am new to this and correct me if i am wrong in anyway so that i can learn more and do a better job reading the models. but in your opinion where do you think this thing will end up.

[South Texas Storms]

i know it is several days away and what i am seeing is everyone from FL to TX has to watch this close. in my opinion i am thinking that there is a good chance that it will make landfall between La and TX but that is my opinion for now it could change depending on what the models show over the next few days. but for some reason i an leaning more towards somewhere on LA coast to SE TX coast. i am praying that it never develops or threatens the US at all but if it hits the US that people have enought time and help to get out of its way or if hits LA i just pray it is not like Katrina i know during gustav that they were watching the leveies closely because they were so close to topping over and it this one is stronger then there is a higher chance the levies could be topped over. again i am new to this and correct me if i am wrong in anyway so that i can learn more and do a better job reading the models. but in your opinion where do you think this thing will end up.

It's way too early to tell right now. If I had to make a range of possible landfalls, I would say anywhere from the Rio Grande to North Carolina.

[lonelymike]

I'd hate the destruction that that a hurricane of this alleged size can cause but it might be an answer to a lot of prayers for the drought striken folks in Tx.

[jlauderdal]

Wow look at that beast! Watch out northern GOM.

another beast heading well south of FLL, thanks ridge

[KWT]

Now it looks like we may have some consistancy in having the system in the Gulf. From there, anyone from Veracruz to Tampa need to watch this closely.

A bit soon for that, I'd not feel all that confident in florida, especially in the Panhandle region just yet.

Still trend is west...how many times we all heard that before.

[Tireman4]

I'd hate the destruction that that a hurricane of this alleged size can cause but it might be an answer to a lot of prayers for the drought striken folks in Tx.

Way, way, way to soon to even think about anything. LOL. Just my humble opinion.



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been predicting the ridge over Texas to break down in 10 days for the past month. It's always 10 days or so down the road. Is it right this time? Probably not. Much will depend on if and when the disturbance ever develops.

[Turtle]

Interesting, here in East TX, GFS was showing 4.5" 2 days ago. After a few runs of showing <.50", it jumped up to 8" in todays 18Z GFS. While I doubt this is true, it goes to show how hard it is to track tropical systems.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has been predicting the ridge over Texas to break down in 10 days for the past month. It's always 10 days or so down the road. Is it right this time? Probably not. Much will depend on if and when the disturbance ever develops.

This is exactly what I've been asking for the last several days. I understand the excitement of a potential storm, but this ridge has been a beast and very dominant. What has suddenly changed to have it leave this quickly?

[pgoss11]

Too many variables this early in the game to say where this "potential storm" will be going. It's a safe bet this is going to hit land somewhere if it forms. Still a lot of "ifs" though. Should be a fun week coming up!!