Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

[HurrMark]

Here is something else to chew on...since Andrew in 1992, there have been a grand total of two major hurricanes making landfall on the East Coast (Fran in 1996 and Jeanne in 2004...Bonnie in 1998 was "borderline" but HURDAT data shows it as a cat 2 at landfall and Emily in 1993 just "brushed" the Outer Banks) The Gulf has not been so lucky, but the East Coast has dodged major bullets.

Also, not a single hurricane has made landfall north of North Carolina since Bob in 1991 (the 20th anniversary is Friday)...I do not think we have ever gone this long without this happening.

I am really starting to think that the pattern of trajectories of storms veering away from the US is more a trend and not a coincidence. Perhaps a Ph. D. dissertation could be written to prove (or disprove) this. Maybe something has been written that I don't know about?

[CrazyC83]

It is always possible a tropical depression could enter that list ultimately as well...

[HurricaneBill]

Didn't the Florida panhandle go more than 70 years without a major hurricane landfall until Eloise in 1975?

[HurrMark]

Didn't the Florida panhandle go more than 70 years without a major hurricane landfall until Eloise in 1975?

That might be true...haven't done the research. I guess the 1930s-50s active period was Atlantic coast dominated, whereas the 1995- period was Gulf dominated when it comes to US landfalls.

[BigB0882]

Didn't the Florida panhandle go more than 70 years without a major hurricane landfall until Eloise in 1975?

Wow, that is a long time!

My bf keeps wanting a storm so bad, nothing too damaging but he likes them when they happen. I keep reminding him that it could be 20+ years before we see one or this summer, there is no way to know. I think we got spoiled when we got to be a part of Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike all in 3 years. Rita and Ike were not direct hits but we still had lots of rain and some nice gusts to watch. However, growing up in Beaumont, TX we went my entire childhood without anything. 18+ years with nada, zilch! Beaumont soon paid dearly when Rita and Ike slammed hard, but the point is that it could be another 20 years before anything...or next week...

[Cyclenall]

Thank the Lord - considering the national debt, unemployment, oil and housing crises, imagine what it could be like if another Katrina or Andrew happened at this time...

So, be thankful nothing has come since then...

If another Katrina or Andrew occurred it would actually be good for unemployment because the rebuilding effort would create many jobs in construction and other areas. This has happened with Hurricane Katrina and other TC's in the western Pacific. Equilibrium.

The US should take a book out of Japanese constuction. These houses are all built with concrete...I admit some of the ugliest places..but no need to worry if a major storm is headed your way. And these winds can withstand 198 mph winds ( Don't think I would want to test them though)

Page. Houses. When you say ugliest places do you mean the houses look ugly or is the land where they are is morbid?

I am really starting to think that the pattern of trajectories of storms veering away from the US is more a trend and not a coincidence. Perhaps a Ph. D. dissertation could be written to prove (or disprove) this. Maybe something has been written that I don't know about?

I haven't noticed any increase in tropical cyclones veering away from the US at all. Some number statistics on this would be helpful.

[wxman57]

Didn't the Florida panhandle go more than 70 years without a major hurricane landfall until Eloise in 1975?

The panhandle isn't often hit by Cat 3-4-5 hurricanes. I could only find 3 cases prior to 1975.

There was the Okeechobee hurricane of 1926 which hit the western panhandle as a Cat 3:


And the 4th hurricane of 1917:


And the only other one I could find is the 4th hurricane of 1851:

[tolakram]

I don't care what category you call it, but Ike was definitely a major hurricane here in Southeast Texas. It wiped out an entire city here in the Golden Triangle... Bridge City.
Not to mention all the other devastation around here...

Hell, Ike was a major event up here near Ohio. We had massive amounts of damage from Ike and the resulting Ike induced windstorm. Ike is a prime example of why categories do not work, IMO. That massive a storm changed the weather for nearly half the US during a 3 day period.

[Category 5]

IMO, the term "Major Hurricane", needs to be tossed in the trash.

[Brent]

IMO, the term "Major Hurricane", needs to be tossed in the trash.

Gustav and Ike proved that

[dwsqos2]

Back in the day, Ike would have been considered a major just based on the 950 mb pressure. Does this mean that it was a major? Absolutely not, but you're comparing storms with intensities often derived from little more than the Kraft or Atkinson-Holiday pressure wind relationships to modern storms with much more scrutinized windspeeds.

On a similar note, consider the storm Carmen of 1974. If Carmen made landfall today I have little doubt that the landfall intensity assigned would be much less than 105 knots. The peak 700 mb winds measured near landfall were a whopping 85 knots. Assuming a standard vertical wind profile would yield a 10 meter wind of 77.5 knots. Surface obs were not very impressive either. According to the MWR season summary, the peak sustained wind was 75 knots at Morgan City. However, in table 3 that value is actual listed as a peak gust. In general Gustav and Lili produced similar or even stronger winds over the potion of Louisiana affected by Carmen, and neither Gustav nor Lili was a major hurricane. Finally, its 952 mb landfalling pressure is unimpressive by northern Gulf major hurricane standard. Most of the NGOM majors have pressures in the mid-940 mb or even lower. (Yes, Andrew was an exception, but Andrew was pretty small.)

To find Carmen near landfall recon data go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/. Click on Carmen of 1974; then click on RECONFIX. Finally, click on FIXLOG07.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1974.pdf

The point of this is that if you delete Carmen as a landfalling major, then you have a more than five year period between the majors Celia of 1970 and Eloise of 1975. I also have questions regarding Eloise's intensity, so there could be an even larger lull between U.S. landfalliing major hurricanes (1970-1979). But there isn't as much Eloise info available.

[Scorpion]

Very interesting to see how North GOM majors are actually quite rare. 2004 and 2005 made it seem that it happened much more frequently.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Gustav? Ike? Am I missing something? Werent those majors?

[Kory]

Gustav? Ike? Am I missing something? Werent those majors?

Yes, but not when they made landfall on the Gulf Coast.

[Ptarmigan]

Gustav? Ike? Am I missing something? Werent those majors?

Gustav and Ike were non-major at landfall. However, they were large hurricanes that did catastrophic damage, especially Ike.

[StormClouds63]

I remember Carmen (1974) very well ... I was living in Baton Rouge, and the storm had intensified to category 4 ... then an approaching cold front weakened the system along with dry air and shear. Little damage in BR ... a big scare, but nothing more. Edith, in 1971, actually caused much more damage, including a very bad tornado. 1974 was also a year in which the cool fronts starting come down very early in the late summer and early fall into Louisiana .... a lot like 2004.

FWIW ... regarding Irene ... the record will now likely remain in tact (at least for the time being) with no category 3 U.S. landfalls since Wilma (2005). However, as nearly everyone has written, Ike and Gustav caused severe damage, and both were high-end category 2 storms. In Lake Charles, the water and surge from Ike was actually worse than during Rita ... not the winds or structural damage ... but the storm tide and surge. Gustav tore up Baton Rouge with damage more severe than Andrew, Hilda, or Betsy.

[GreenWinds]

I was told to not post my message in the active storms forum so I'm posting it here because it has to do with reliability of intensity forecasts and I thought it would make for an interesting discussion. Mods, if this is not the right place then please tell me where.


I'm quite shocked by how Irene suddenly weakened so much. It was unprecedented by how almost all models (including the reliable global ones) were forecasting at least a category 3 brushing NC and a lower end category 2 for the NE coast.

It really makes me wonder if Project Stormfury (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury) or some other similar covert government program is really at play here. Sure it might be very expensive but considering that storm damage to the most populous part of the country and financial capital of the U.S. could outdo all other expenses, maybe the government jumped the gun and decided to authorize the execution of such a mission. Before you guys call me a conspiracy theorist, let me remind you there are several awesome technologies our government uses in advance before letting the public know about them.

And yeah, maybe it was just mother nature at play here and you might say that the hurricane models are not good with forecasting intensity. Just thought this might be interesting to consider.

[CrazyC83]

Irene didn't weaken a whole lot. The over-Atlantic intensities were probably mostly overestimated.

[maxintensity]

Just over 1 short week until we pass the peak of hurricane season and models show the good luck of the past 6 years will continue for the foreseeable future. Irene was likely the best chance since 2008 to break the streak but its lack of inner core due to eyewall replacement cycles prevented it from strengthening in otherwise ideal conditions.

[BigB0882]

I was in Baton Rouge for Gustav and trust me, major or no major it was horrible. One of the worst Baton Rouge has ever seen. Katrina was nothing compared to Gustav, not here in Baton Rouge. Of course we were on the "good" side of Katrina and the "bad" side of Gustav. It made me realize how horrifying these storms can be. I can't imagine what it would be like if a category 4 had a direct hit on me. The cat 2 was enough!