ATL: IRENE - Models

[CrazyC83]

I do believe this is heading south, similar to 93L. It will be too weak before the Caribbean to be drawn north I think.

[OuterBanker]

I know it's a different thread. But it could affect 97L's name. 98L went code orange. Could become a monster fish.

[caneseddy]

18z DGEX model has 97L over the Keys heading up the west coast of Florida

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

[otowntiger]

[quote="Ivanhater"]18z GFS Ensembles show SE Louisana and heading north

and not nearly as strong as previously advertised. Like I've said before, if we think predicting the direction is like guess work, then intensity forecasts are like playing darts blindfolded with no hands.

[TwisterFanatic]

18z GFS Ensembles show SE Louisana and heading north

and not nearly as strong as previously advertised. Like I've said before, if we think predicting the direction is like guess work, then intensity forecasts are like playing darts blindfolded with no hands.

You don't look at intensity on the ensembles..

[Blown Away]

Well this will throw a wrench in the west trend thinking, the NHC hugging 00z TVCN shows what looks like a recurve through the Bahamas.

[South Texas Storms]

Why haven't the GFDL and HWRF models been run yet for this system?

[Rgv20]

I took a close look at the guidance this evening and to put it bluntly they are all over the place in regards to 97l track. 18zGFS Ensembles track 97L anywhere from the Western Gulf to the East Coast and the 12zECMWF Ensembles are on the same boat as the GFS Ensembles. Bottom line interest in the Yucatan, Texas, Central Gulf Coast, Florida, East Coast need to keep an eye on it. (I tried my hardest to narrow it down...lol)

On a side note the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run has 97L tracking thru the West coast of Florida and the ECMWF Monthly Forecast release today has the track just to the East of Florida eventually making landfall in South Carolina on Saturday Night August 27.


18zGFS Ensembles Valid for Sunday August 28. Dark colors represent where 97L may end up.


12zECMWF Ensembles Valid for Sunday August 28. 97L could be anywhere in the Gulf Of Mexico to the East coast of the US.

[gatorcane]

So how is the consensus track (TVCN) so far east?

Do the deep BAM and NOGAPS carry that much weight?

[OuterBanker]

Wha happened, it was going to Houston couple hours ago

[caneseddy]

Wha happened, it was going to Houston couple hours ago

That was the GFS model.....the TVCN is a blend of all the models...the only reason I think is because of the BAMS and Nogaps, like gator stated

[weatherguy2]

So how is the consensus track (TVCN) so far east?

Do the deep BAM and NOGAPS carry that much weight?

It's the average of at least 2 of several models, and only two are available now. One being the interpolated NOGAPS which is way east, so that's why there was a east turn of the TVCN.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM rolling in..H+66 strenghening as it passes near Guadeloupe...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72 00Z NAM moving thru Northen leeward islands...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[wxman57]

So how is the consensus track (TVCN) so far east?

Do the deep BAM and NOGAPS carry that much weight?

NOGAPS is the last model I'd ever look at. It's almost always forecasting the exact opposite of what a TC actually ends up doing. BAM models are non-dynamic trajectory models. They shouldn't be used outside of the deep tropics (like south of 20N).

[Vortex]

H72 00z NAM...most agresive run thus far

500mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[South Texas Storms]

0z Nam tonight looks too strong and too far north. It almost takes it north of Puerto Rico on this run.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM most agressive run yet actually looks quite resonable...



Loop:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

[Vortex]

00Z NAM 500mb Loop...In fact, looking at the synoptics it makes complete sense..Most worrisome would be the fact it would miss most significant land interaction and would probablly be a powerhouse as it entered the bahamas....



Loop 500MB


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

200mb at H+84 indicates a very favorable pattern for strengthening...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif