ATL: IRENE - Models

[Vortex]

GFS 00z 30 minutes till we roll...

[ConvergenceZone]

I pay attention to each model run more than the time before, since every model run brings us closer and closer to landfall....

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS 00z 30 minutes till we roll...

Any bets? Will GFS continue it's westward trend and move closer to a Mexico landfall? Will is stay the same? or will is move East... Place your bets now....

[South Texas Storms]

GFS 00z 30 minutes till we roll...

Any bets? Will GFS continue it's westward trend and move closer to a Mexico landfall? Will is stay the same? or will is move East... Place your bets now....

No bets from me...but I'm really interested to see if the west trend continues in tonight's 0z model runs.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

until today it seemed we had a good agreement in general where this was going. But after todays runs it goes to show we still don't have a clue.

[SoupBone]

GFS 00z 30 minutes till we roll...

Any bets? Will GFS continue it's westward trend and move closer to a Mexico landfall? Will is stay the same? or will is move East... Place your bets now....

I'm calling skirting the east coast of Florida then second landfall in NC/SC area. I have no idea.

[gatorcane]

The 00z NAM has a noticeably deeper trough along the eastern seaboard of the CONUS than the 18z 3 days from now.

Less ridging north of 97l. I wonder if the GFS will show this on the 00z.

[South Texas Storms]

until today it seemed we had a good agreement in general where this was going. But after todays runs it goes to show we still don't have a clue.

But that is to be expected with a storm that hasn't even been named yet and is still a week away from a CONUS landfall.

[Nikki]

GFS 00z 30 minutes till we roll...

Any bets? Will GFS continue it's westward trend and move closer to a Mexico landfall? Will is stay the same? or will is move East... Place your bets now....

I say anywhere from Mexico to Canada!!!!!!

[SeminoleWind]

im willing to say the gfs stays the same or slightly east, the westward run earlier just seemed odd to me after so many consistent runs.
But we shall see soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it will stay the same and still show a Texas landfall, perhaps marking the end of the westward trend....We'll see shortly.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

until today it seemed we had a good agreement in general where this was going. But after todays runs it goes to show we still don't have a clue.

But that is to be expected with a storm that hasn't even been named yet and is still a week away from a CONUS landfall.

I agree with you on that, but with all those runs from so many different models I think we all felt it least it was close still may be time will tell.

[ROCK]

im willing to say the gfs stays the same or slightly east, the westward run earlier just seemed odd to me after so many consistent runs.
But we shall see soon.

EURO was alot more west in its run as well....that said the 12Z and 0Z GFS are really what you need to look at..better data.....

fun times second guessing model runs huh? This is why this 2K family is the best around....I have been here for 7 years now and I still get that feeling every May....

[ROCK]

I think it will stay the same and still show a Texas landfall, perhaps marking the end of the westward trend....We'll see shortly.

possibly...the GFS ensembles give it away. SW LA to Mid LA is my guess....

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am surprised no one has posted the track of Donna in 1960. I tried to post it but some how can't seem to.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am surprised no one has posted the track of Donna in 1960. I tried to post it but some how can't seem to.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am surprised no one has posted the track of Donna in 1960. I tried to post it but some how can't seem to.

Thank you for posting it, could very well follow a track similar to Donna I was in Key West when she came through,

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am surprised no one has posted the track of Donna in 1960. I tried to post it but some how can't seem to.

Thank you for posting it, could very well follow a track similar to Donna I was in Key West when she came through,

Fun fact, before my time however but, Donna caused sustained winds of 50 mph and peaks gusts to 75 mph & some moderate damage up here were I live between St Stephen & St Andrew New Brunswick, which is right along the SW border between Maine & New Brunswick on the map. My position being roughly 70 miles from where the centre was at its' nearest approach (though importantly on the right-handside side of the system). Donna was indeed an unusually intense storm, that maintained herself as a hurrucane nearly all the way to Northern Maine.

[ROCK]

the trick is how far west once it gets into the islands and how it does with land interaction. Pretty cut and dry for the next 5 days right now....

[Sean in New Orleans]

This system, I have one eye on, but, goodness, so much time and so far away. I doubt we'll know anything with much certainty until the weekend or early next week. No way in the world would I even take a guess any time soon.....looking at its path, it could fizzle....