ATL: IRENE - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Guess that gives my age away,Lol

[Sean in New Orleans]

This system, I have one eye on, but, goodness, so much time and so far away. I doubt we'll know anything with much certainty until the weekend or early next week. No way in the world would I even take a guess any time soon.....

[Vortex]

00z GFS rolling...

H+36, near 13/55...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif

[MWatkins]

Er, isn't this the models thread?

Anyhoo...looks like the models are taking out enough of that persistent ridging to dig whatever comes of this out of the Caribbean. Land interaction is going to be an issue, but the models appear to be holding enough ridging to get this to at least 80W. This looks to be the first real concern of the season, and maybe in the last few years, IMHO.

Waiting to see what the GFS does with the mid-layer pattern...but the models in general have been VERY consistent with the pattern evolution for the last few days. I don't expect a big change tonight either...

MW

[LaBreeze]

This system, I have one eye on, but, goodness, so much time and so far away. I doubt we'll know anything with much certainty until the weekend or early next week. No way in the world would I even take a guess any time soon.....looking at its path, it could fizzle....

My sentiments exactly - it is quite early. Point being, however, always be prepared and keep an eye to the tropics. Have your plans in place and your supplies ready and keep on top of it. I'm not going to take a guess any time soon either - so much could happen. Like today - it was clear, hot, 103 degrees and tonight we had a severe thunderstorm barrel on through with 2-3 inches of rain in 20 minutes and wind gusts up to 72 mph. Just got my power back on. Be prepared.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS seems way south? huh...

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at where the possible spin is and where the GFS initiates this, the GFS initiates this too far south

[Blown Away]

0Z GFS seems way south? huh...

SFL hit again?

[ROCK]

loses lat do to the huge ridge above it....no doubt it also hauling butt about 20mph across the pond....

[ROCK]

0Z GFS seems way south? huh...

SFL hit again?

no it intializes this wrong I think....or the ridge pushes down to about 13N or below....

[Vortex]

As the 00z GFS is rolling in, who wants to take a stab at final destination...given the 18Z run I say hit near Fl straits/keys then LA....

[ROCK]

geez that is way south!!!

[SFLcane]

Wave @ 48hrs

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can someoen please post them as they come out,

Thanks.

[ROCK]

As the 00z GFS is rolling in, who wants to take a stab at final destination...given the 18Z run I say hit near Fl straits/keys then LA....

with it so south I will go LA and westward....but I dont think its making the straits though.....weird run...

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible this run is erroneous

[SouthFLTropics]

If the initialization is wrong then you might as well toss this run out. Garbage in, garbage out. It will be fun to watch for entertainment only but for real application it may be worthless. JMHO

SFT

[ROCK]

If the initialization is wrong then you might as well toss this run out. Garbage in, garbage out. It will be fun to watch for entertainment only but for real application it may be worthless. JMHO

SFT

I agree...and its the 12Z....that far south it could cruise the caribbean....

[Vortex]

on 2nd thought looks a tad further S at H36, going with TX...

[ConvergenceZone]

Based up it's current projected position, I think it will land in Mexico on this run, OR right on the Texas Mexico border? I could be way off though.