ATL: IRENE - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Now on to the 0z CMC and Euro in a few hours. Will they both show more GOM hits?

[Vortex]

landfall near mobile it appears...very intense....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal264.gif

[Ivanhater]

Updated GFS!


06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29

[ROCK]

224hr...I am a little behind....

[ConvergenceZone]

landfall near mobile it appears...very intense....

So much for feeling relief when it was looking weaker when it was in the eastern Carib. This may not be that far off the mark. GFS seems to think it's going to be slow in strengthening until it gets in the Western Carib.

[Vortex]

The target zones seem to be between biloxi, MS and SC....Folks, I have little doubt this one is US bound!

[PTrackerLA]

End specifics aren't important, Ivan's list says it all. Potential massive hurricane threat to Gulf Coast/SE continues. Until morning, night everyone...

[weatherguy2]

00z run sure was a deep one:



Up to Memphis on this one:

[ROCK]

that would push a lot of water into the NO....probably over the levees...

just so dam big...

[ConvergenceZone]

Updated GFS!


06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29

Thanks again Michael for posting this. It's really looking like we are going to have a hurricane on our hands somewhere. The consensus is growing stronger as each model run passes.

[blp]

One interesting thing about this run is that now even in the short term there is less consistency because it bypasses Hispaniola to the South, which would be a good thing as they don't need any type of system.

[SunnyThoughts]

I wish I hadn't opened at looked at this thread tonight. sighhh Oh well, if we have to deal with it I guess we deal with it, nothing we can do about it right? I'm sure the models will flip and flop around the next week to 10 days, sure seems like the GOM is in for a rough time of it though. Everybody be observant, be prepared and above all be SAFE.

[SFLcane]

The target zones seem to be between biloxi, MS and SC....Folks, I have little doubt this one is US bound!

Target?? You do realize there sooo many options on the table on were this storm might end up. Lets wait till we get a classified cyclone before we can pin point areas.

This thing is days away before it becomes anything of real concern.

[Hurricaneman]

The target zones seem to be between biloxi, MS and SC....Folks, I have little doubt this one is US bound!

Target?? You do realize there sooo many options on the table on were this storm might end up. Lets wait till we get a classified cyclone before we can pin point areas.

This thing is days away before it becomes anything of real concern.

Or even if this even forms, this could poof too

[Vortex]

I think we can start to rule out the fact this will most likely not be recurving E of the US...

[South Texas Storms]

Now we wait for the almighty Euro.

You staying up for it Rock and Ivan?

[Turtle]

What model has the best history with tracking tropical development ~10 days out? I know none are truly accurate, but is there one that is looked upon with more importance?

[weatherguy2]

00z track reminds me of infamous Camille of 1969, except a tad more east.

[Blown Away]

224hr...I am a little behind....

Ok I'm tired and I need help, which one do I select to get this view?

[blp]

We have about 10-11 days before a potential landfall which equals between 40-44 GFS runs. Oh yea.... it is going to be a while before we get this straightened out....