ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

97L on cue, nearing 50W and convection is building.

[KWT]

This is starting to convect for 2 reasons, 1 is its starting to draw some moisture from the ULL and reeason number 2 is warmer ocean temps

and also

3: Heading into Dmax...

For developing system that in a somewhat marginal set-up (like 97L is...for now) can really see big differencesd made by those cycles.

[Gustywind]

First visible...

[Blown Away]

You know Luis & Gusty, looking like you guys might have to deal with at least a TS at this point! Models tightly clustered over you. JMHO, I'm thinking this will be a cane near PR.

[USTropics]

Here's a good view of both 97L and 98L this morning:

[KWT]

Looking better for sure, still got some way to go but hard to deny the trend that its organising right now...

Maybe the GFS wasn't so far off with its quicker development...hmmm...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Is it my imagination or have the systems up to now look like crap. So far not one that I would say had a complete circulation. Maybe that's why there hasn't been a hurricane yet. The pacific looks more like an El nino year. I know it could all change on a dime.

[SFLcane]

Its now approaching 50w as others suggested and convection appears on the increase.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Its now approaching 50w as others suggested and convection appears on the increase.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

needs to get out of the sal.

[weatherwindow]

a question for the board......where are the GFDL and HWRF...and why havent they been run?

[SFLcane]

Its now approaching 50w as others suggested and convection appears on the increase.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

needs to get out of the sal.

Favorable conditions aloft ahead.

[gatorcane]

a question for the board......where are the GFDL and HWRF...and why havent they been run?

They were run at 00z. GFDL keeps this as a wave. HWRF develops this into a strong hurricane that moves wnw north of Hispaniola and through Puerto Rico.

[USTropics]

a question for the board......where are the GFDL and HWRF...and why havent they been run?

They have been run for 00z. GFDL basically does nothing with it, the HWRF bombs this out north of Hispaniola (per usual):

[SFLcane]

Up to 40%....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191159
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

[Gustywind]

19/1145 UTC 13.6N 47.3W TOO WEAK 97L
19/0545 UTC 12.9N 45.2W TOO WEAK 97L

[weatherwindow]

a question for the board......where are the GFDL and HWRF...and why havent they been run?

They were run at 00z. GFDL keeps this as a wave. HWRF develops this into a strong hurricane that moves wnw north of Hispaniola and through Puerto Rico.

thanks, chris....i find it fascinating to see such a stark contrast in intensity between the two state of the art intensity specific models. as i understand it, both are using gfs inputs(and obviously, much else) and producing such dramatically different results. chris, do you see anything that jumps out at you that would yield these results. and IMHO, i would side with slower development based on the size of the envelope and the continuing presence of dry air in all quadrants....rich

[HurricaneWarning92]

19/1145 UTC 13.6N 47.3W TOO WEAK 97L
19/0545 UTC 12.9N 45.2W TOO WEAK 97L

Looks like it really is moving wnw, or just north of west.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W
AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH.

[KWT]

19/1145 UTC 13.6N 47.3W TOO WEAK 97L
19/0545 UTC 12.9N 45.2W TOO WEAK 97L

Looks like it really is moving wnw, or just north of west.

Nope, just the sat.estimate has shifted a little northwards towards the actual center, that 06z position was too far south. 40% looks reasonable for now, chances should crawl upwards.

[Blown Away]

INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE

This is a very confident statement for a conservative organization, it's a little unnerving. Often when we see a system develop in front of a big building high pressure it can help ventilate the system very well, many examples Andrew, Katrina, Ike, etc.