ATL: IRENE - Models

[lonelymike]

A JB impersonator at Accuweather (yes... I looked) believes that 97L will take a Donna like track....just saying

On the other hand Sadie the magic meterology chimp says....

[Blown Away]

The 00z FIM calls for a South Florida strike from the south and is in remarkably excellent agreement on the track through 200 hours with the ECMWF.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... n=0&wjet=1

Does this track go N or S of Cuba/Hispaniola?
NHC hugging TVCN creeping N, maybe N of Hispaniola before it's done!!

[Blown Away]

A JB impersonator at Accuweather (yes... I looked) believes that 97L will take a Donna like track....just saying

On the other hand Sadie the magic meterology chimp says....

Donna track seems unlikely at this point, she went just N of all the Caribbean islands.

[HurricaneWarning92]

If those runs go N of Hispaniola that's when it becomes extremely worrisome for SFL.

BA, a track similar to the Euro moving N-NE across central Cuba toward S FL would not be good either.

I know, all hurricanes are bad but very few Major strikes on the Florida peninsula from storms crossing over Cuba/Hispaniola. I know Charley!

What he meant i believe was that if it tracks just north of Hispaniola, it wouldnt weaken as much, or nothing at all, and then... you get the rest... KABOOM...

[Blown Away]

What he meant i believe was that if it tracks just north of Hispaniola, it wouldnt weaken as much, or nothing at all, and then... you get the rest... KABOOM...

Yeah, I have been saying all along if 97L moves just N of those islands SFL/EC could be dealing with a big hurricane, IMO. Seems a track very close or over Hispaniola is likely for now.

[KWT]

Yeah I think thats about as good as we can do right now BA, models are close to Hispaniola, its jsut what side it ends up exactly that is going to hard to call right now and it does make a big difference.

[ROCK]

Yeah I think thats about as good as we can do right now BA, models are close to Hispaniola, its jsut what side it ends up exactly that is going to hard to call right now and it does make a big difference.

This huge...if it goes over hispa it could miss the weakness.....any slight deviation in track now means a lot down the road.

[AHS2011]

What are the percent chances of this storm recurving off the East Coast if it goes up the East Coast?

[gatorcane]

Notice the 00Z ECMWF takes the system over Hispaniola and Eastern cuba disrupting it, and it still ends up getting pulled northward towards S. Florida in the end, then the Carolinas thereafter hitting a large and pronounced weakness.

It seems the trends from the models last night is that they are creating a larger weakness by this time next week over Eastern North America. The GFS even bends the system NNE into the Big Bend of Florida into the Eastern GOM.

Will be interesting to see what they do with that weakness in today's 12Z runs. It wouldn't take too much more shifting to have a track similar to Emily's east of the CONUS.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191257
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  1200   110820  0000   110820  1200   110821  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  47.3W   13.9N  50.2W   14.5N  53.4W   15.6N  56.6W
BAMD    13.5N  47.3W   14.0N  50.5W   14.6N  53.6W   15.3N  56.7W
BAMM    13.5N  47.3W   14.0N  50.4W   14.6N  53.5W   15.6N  56.7W
LBAR    13.5N  47.3W   14.1N  50.8W   14.8N  54.4W   15.7N  57.9W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  1200   110822  1200   110823  1200   110824  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  59.9W   18.7N  66.5W   20.3N  73.3W   20.5N  79.4W
BAMD    16.1N  59.7W   17.5N  64.9W   19.0N  69.4W   20.9N  73.5W
BAMM    16.6N  59.9W   18.3N  66.1W   19.4N  72.4W   19.5N  77.3W
LBAR    16.4N  61.4W   17.3N  67.4W   17.2N  71.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        61KTS          83KTS          95KTS          97KTS
DSHP        61KTS          71KTS          46KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  47.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  43.5W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  39.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  190NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[KWT]

Notice the 00Z ECMWF takes the system over Hispaniola and Eastern cuba disrupting it, and it still ends up getting pulled northward towards S. Florida in the end, then the Carolinas thereafter hitting a large and pronounced weakness.

It seems the trends from the models last night is that they are creating a larger weakness by this time next week over Eastern North America. The GFS even bends the system NNE into the Big Bend of Florida into the Eastern GOM.

Will be interesting to see what they do with that weakness in today's 12Z runs. It wouldn't take too much more shifting to have a track similar to Emily's east of the CONUS.

Its possible that this shifts eastwards and reflects a track abit like Emily, given one storm has already taken that track and Bret to some extent also broadly followed a similar exit track from the Bahamas that wouldn't be an unreasonable outside shot.

Think its far more likely this isd a SE US threat though.

[Blown Away]

Notice the 00Z ECMWF takes the system over Hispaniola and Eastern cuba disrupting it, and it still ends up getting pulled northward towards S. Florida in the end, then the Carolinas thereafter hitting a large and pronounced weakness.

It seems the trends from the models last night is that they are creating a larger weakness by this time next week over Eastern North America. The GFS even bends the system NNE into the Big Bend of Florida into the Eastern GOM.

Will be interesting to see what they do with that weakness in today's 12Z runs. It wouldn't take too much more shifting to have a track similar to Emily's east of the CONUS.

Its possible that this shifts eastwards and reflects a track abit like Emily, given one storm has already taken that track and Bret to some extent also broadly followed a similar exit track from the Bahamas that wouldn't be an unreasonable outside shot.

Think its far more likely this isd a SE US threat though.

Yeah, models not showing the big weakness Emily had, 97L could easy miss SFL to the E but I don't think it escapes w/o striking the EC.

[Blown Away]

Interesting the 12z xtrap showing WNW movement instead of WSW movement shown on 6z.

[cycloneye]

Interesting the 12z xtrap showing WNW movement instead of WSW movement shown on 6z.

[KWT]

Its even more interesting given its shaved 0.1N off from its 00z position...must be a 6hr average thats abit higher.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

A JB impersonator at Accuweather (yes... I looked) believes that 97L will take a Donna like track....just saying

On the other hand Sadie the magic meterology chimp says....

I posted a comment last night regarding a Donna track Lol.

[OuterBanker]

BTW, Cycloneye. Is that not the Herbert box on that map. A don't all models take it through it?

[Blown Away]

Seems the models are dropping the slow down, the 12z run has this system near Florida in 5 days (120 hours).

[wxman57]

Seems the models are dropping the slow down, the 12z run has this system near Florida in 5 days (120 hours).

Careful, those models are 6-day and 7-day models (BAM runs). The BAM runs were extended out to 7 days this year as the NHC is producing 7-day hurricane tracks as an experiment in preparation for going operational with 7 day tracks in 2-3 years. The timing to the Florida Straits is around next Friday morning.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro Ensembles still take this into the central Gulf