ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

And notice how some models and ensembles have this moving wsw at start, and then turn wnw... so far its been moving just north of west, so track could shift a bit to the right.

Or the track will shift more to the left/west as the models were forecasting it to be nearly a TS by now and they were clearly wrong on the early development. I think I'm seeing increasing evidence that it will track west of Florida.

Florida Peninsula or Florida Panhandle? There does look to be a weakness along the north central Gulf coast, but I agree I'm leaning toward a Gulf solution with the trend of delayed development this year. Nothing is conclusive by any means though

[somethingfunny]

delayed development

At what point do you think the BUST and SEASON CANCEL posts will return? If it doesn't develop by 60W? 70W?

[Ivanhater]

delayed development

At what point do you think the BUST and SEASON CANCEL posts will return? If it doesn't develop by 60W? 70W?

Oh they will always come no matter what

[KWT]

And notice how some models and ensembles have this moving wsw at start, and then turn wnw... so far its been moving just north of west, so track could shift a bit to the right.

Or the track will shift more to the left/west as the models were forecasting it to be nearly a TS by now and they were clearly wrong on the early development. I think I'm seeing increasing evidence that it will track west of Florida.

What i have noticed is most models on thier 00z suite took it either over orn jsut south compared to some previous runs which were to the north or just over it...so whilst small it is a slight trend west.

[Aric Dunn]

And notice how some models and ensembles have this moving wsw at start, and then turn wnw... so far its been moving just north of west, so track could shift a bit to the right.

Or the track will shift more to the left/west as the models were forecasting it to be nearly a TS by now and they were clearly wrong on the early development. I think I'm seeing increasing evidence that it will track west of Florida.

What i have noticed is most models on thier 00z suite took it either over orn jsut south compared to some previous runs which were to the north or just over it...so whilst small it is a slight trend west.

That again is nothing new they have been doing that for the last few days. back and forth by barely 50 to 100 miles ....not a trend.

[wxman57]

And notice how some models and ensembles have this moving wsw at start, and then turn wnw... so far its been moving just north of west, so track could shift a bit to the right.

Or the track will shift more to the left/west as the models were forecasting it to be nearly a TS by now and they were clearly wrong on the early development. I think I'm seeing increasing evidence that it will track west of Florida.

Florida Peninsula or Florida Panhandle? There does look to be a weakness along the north central Gulf coast, but I agree I'm leaning toward a Gulf solution with the trend of delayed development this year. Nothing is conclusive by any means though

West of the FL Peninsula, not necessarily west of the FL Panhandle.

[SFLcane]

Donna like maybe wxman57?

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM tracking WNW north of Hispaniola as a powerful system. NAM shifting right the past several runs.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS starting now..

[cycloneye]

Donna like maybe wxman57?

For those members that dont remember the Donna track,here it is.

[weatherguy2]

12z GFS rolling (Edit update 12hr):

[gatorcane]

And notice how some models and ensembles have this moving wsw at start, and then turn wnw... so far its been moving just north of west, so track could shift a bit to the right.

Or the track will shift more to the left/west as the models were forecasting it to be nearly a TS by now and they were clearly wrong on the early development. I think I'm seeing increasing evidence that it will track west of Florida.

I think its quite possible but there is more uncertainty than usual this time. For example, if this invest decides to get its act together more quickly over the next couple of days, could easily end up more east, even east of the FL peninsula into the Bahamas and SE CONUS. Several GFS ensembles suggest this solution. Though several ECMWF ensembles insist on a Central GOM threat.

Convection really getting going now with this invest so once it slows down some, it could be on its way as the GFS and ECMWF have progged.

Right now it is moving at 280 and not 260 like several of these models think it would be moving right now.

[AHS2011]

What do you think the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a threat level scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

[KWT]

NAM briefly goes NW then starts to bend back closer to west, very close to the ECM solution actually.

[SouthFLTropics]

What do you think the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a threat level scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

I'm getting the feeling of Deja Vu. Didn't I see this question asked in almost the exact same wording about two weeks ago???

SFT

[wxman57]

Donna like maybe wxman57?

Well, except NOT hitting the FL Peninsula, maybe. I'd still like to see more evidence that it actually is going to develop. Models yesterday morning had it at TS strength by 12Z today. That's not happening.

[AdamFirst]

What do you think the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a threat level scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

Way, way, way too early to tell. Those prospects are still 9, 10 days down the road.

[AHS2011]

Lol. Yeah SouthFLTropics. I'll ask that question whenever there's a threat to Southern New England by a hurricane. Sorry if it's annoying.

[KWT]

Donna like maybe wxman57?

Well, except NOT hitting the FL Peninsula, maybe. I'd still like to see more evidence that it actually is going to develop. Models yesterday morning had it at TS strength by 12Z today. That's not happening.

to be fair Wxman57 nearly all the global models delay development till 57-60W...which is probably still a solid 24-36hrs away...

The ECM barely gets going before Hispaniola as well.

[weatherguy2]

Was going WNW but it took a SW dip: