ATL: IRENE - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#721 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:41 am

AHS2011 wrote:Lol. Yeah SouthFLTropics. I'll ask that question whenever there's a threat to Southern New England by a hurricane. Sorry if it's annoying.


Not annoying...just found it amusing??? In all seriousness I would say that no one is off of the board yet. Just stay tuned right here at S2K and you'll be well informed.

SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#722 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:42 am

way south (was going WNW then took a far SW turn): 24 hr:
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Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:47 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#723 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:43 am

Looks like this run is living in lala land I'm afraid, way too far south I'd suspect...probably a good 3 degrees too far south!!
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Re:

#724 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:44 am

KWT wrote:Looks like this run is living in lala land I'm afraid, way too far south I'd suspect...probably a good 3 degrees too far south!!


Yes, that is too far south. It would have to literally move SW very soon. This run probably needs to be thrown out unfortunately.
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Re: Re:

#725 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:46 am

gatorcane wrote:
KWT wrote:Looks like this run is living in lala land I'm afraid, way too far south I'd suspect...probably a good 3 degrees too far south!!


Yes, that is too far south. It would have to literally move SW very soon. This run probably needs to be thrown out unfortunately.


There really isnt a defined low yet so its not really far south...Will prob bounce around till the islands like it has the past 15 runs...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#726 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:46 am

AHS2011 wrote:What do you think the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a threat level scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?


It isn't likely but it isn't out of the question. I won't quantify its' chances though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#727 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:46 am

This run does even have a closed center yet, just a broad area of low pressure....let's wait to see where it consolidates it :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#728 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:47 am

It did this last night during the 00z if I remember and then it seemed to work its issues out and get back on track. Lets let the hand play out and then see what cards we were dealt before we decide to fold on this run...At least that's my initial thinking.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#729 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:47 am

It's turning back NW at 30 hr:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#730 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:49 am

That's poor, moved way SW again, almost to South America:
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Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#731 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:50 am

Well look at that...GFS is delaying development on this run :lol:
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#732 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:50 am

landfall in South America on this run? :lol:

Yeah, looks like a garbage run in my opinion
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#733 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:51 am

Wow, is GFS going to lose it for the first time?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#734 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:51 am

extremely far south.. would have to start heading wsw to do that..

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Re:

#735 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:51 am

KWT wrote:Looks like this run is living in lala land I'm afraid, way too far south I'd suspect...probably a good 3 degrees too far south!!


I don't think it's actually THAT bad. I plotted the latest satellite image with the 3hr GFS MSLP down to 1mb and the GFS initialized it near the center of the large broad low pressure area. The GFS 15Z low position is right at 12N. Not really that far from the southern area of convection (90nm). It has the center entering the Caribbean around 13.2N. That's probably a bit too far south. More likely a few degrees farther north than that (15-16N).
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Re:

#736 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:52 am

gatorcane wrote:landfall in South America on this run? :lol:

Yeah, looks like a garbage run in my opinion


Even the Canadian does not really develop this until well into the Caribbean. Not so garbage imo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#737 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:52 am

Went due north and made a come back LOL:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#738 Postby bigdan35 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:53 am

Lets see what happens in the 120 hr range :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#739 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:53 am

It's not moving north or wnw or wsw..it has been a broad are of low pressure and the GFS is just now consolidating it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#740 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:55 am

48 hour, it's getting a hold on it, and slowly strengthening (just west of Saint Lucia):
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:58 am, edited 3 times in total.
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