ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#761 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:14 am

102 hours...never hits Hispaniola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#762 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:15 am

120, edit:
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#763 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:16 am

well so basically its just about 8 to 12 hours faster than the 6z. ok next model please..lol
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#764 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:18 am

Only needs a 50 mile shift north and it hits Haiti and its mountions...thats a really close call that far out!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#765 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:19 am

Short wave dropping into Alabama. But ridge may rebuild after it passes through and off east coast. :flag:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#766 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:19 am

Approaching Jamaica
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Re:

#767 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:19 am

KWT wrote:Only needs a 50 mile shift north and it hits Haiti and its mountions...thats a really close call that far out!


Well the models were north of it then over it, now south of it
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#768 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:19 am

well a slight change at 120 hours.. its due north of the 6z position by about 75 to 100 miles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#769 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:21 am

hr 138, edit:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#770 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:21 am

This is where the model fun really begins...Does it bomb it out and does it hit the weakness???

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Re:

#771 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well a slight change at 120 hours.. its due north of the 6z position by about 75 to 100 miles.


Looks exactly the same by 132 hours..just a little faster wnw
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Re:

#772 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well so basically its just about 8 to 12 hours faster than the 6z. ok next model please..lol


I have measured a 24hr movement of about 26 mph (23 kts). At that rate, it'll be in the Caribbean early Sunday morning. Don't discount the GFS timing too much, it has the center crossing into the Caribbean at 09Z Sunday. It could even be there a bit earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#773 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:23 am

Looks like landfall along Haiti Peninsula.
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Re:

#774 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 am

KWT wrote:Only needs a 50 mile shift north and it hits Haiti and its mountions...thats a really close call that far out!



KWT, can you imagine what Florida/Gulf states would experience from year to year hurricane wise if those islands weren't there? Yikes!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#775 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 am

150 hr, edit:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#776 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 am

Agree its moving along at a good clip.
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#777 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 am

its definitely a little farther N than the last run.. not much .. and not a big deal..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#778 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 am

Geeez, spends alomst a day over W Haiti, man they don't catch a break.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#779 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 am

Trough coming down
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#780 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 am

GOM'ers beware...
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