ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#781 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 am

Looks a bit like a charlie track setting up.. starting to pass just east of isle of youth crossing cuba towards eastern gulf..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#782 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 am

Blown Away wrote:Geeez, spends alomst a day over W Haiti, man they don't catch a break.


You're probably looking at yesterdays run of the 12z
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#783 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 am

Going over western Cuba...trough has opened a weakness over the eastern Gulf but the trough is lifting out...
0 likes   
Michael
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#784 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 am

hr 168, edit:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#785 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 am

Trough has lifted out..ridging still influencing

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#786 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 am

165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#787 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#788 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out


yep.. either the ridging keep it moving.. or the steering gets weak


just as I wrote that... steering weakens a little .. its bombs out and drifts north
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#789 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

hr 180, edit:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#790 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

Heading NW

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#791 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:34 am

Loos more like Dennis 2005 track so far
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#792 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am

186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#793 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am

186 hours...slow crawl NW/NNW

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#794 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak


Looks like a Panhandle run unless it doesnt move and another shortwave picks it up..well see
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#795 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:37 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak


Looks like a Panhandle run unless it doesnt move and another shortwave picks it up..well see


or ridging build in ...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#796 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

The joys of model watching :lol:
0 likes   
Michael
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#797 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

hr, 216 , panhandle landfall:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
fox13weather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm

Re: Re:

#798 Postby fox13weather » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out



Honestly. who knows?? 165 hours out?? We don't even have a named storm on the map and we are talking absolutes? What is the margin of error at 165 hours??? 500 miles???
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#799 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 am

216 landfall... dennis style..

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#800 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 am

Pensacola

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests