ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE...

Get out the garden shears - another hedge system (LOL)...

Frank

Essentially, they're not saying things aren't conducive for development, that things will become better farther west

[ConvergenceZone]

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE...

Get out the garden shears - another hedge system (LOL)...

Frank

40% IS ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD.....I didn't except this to have convection as early as it has. This tells me that it's
already starting to slowly get its act together....It should be up to %60 by tomorrow if not higher.

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but so far this season we've seen system after system that is very slow in getting organized - but never does much more than that...

Sure, these are the CV systems that have more potential, but if the environment isn't just right then it's origin doesn't matter...

In seeing the WV I'm sticking with the opinion that the ULL/TUTT environment ahead of it really isn't very suitable for development...

Frank

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG
17N48W TO 9N47W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS
AROUND A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS MAINLY W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[tolakram]

These spread out developing waves probably do more overall damage in rainfall than an organized tropical storm does. Islands should prepare for yet another deluge of rain and flooding ... again. In my opinion.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

19/1745 UTC 13.2N 49.0W TOO WEAK 97L
19/1145 UTC 13.6N 47.3W TOO WEAK 97L

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB foresees a more northerly track than indicated by the GFS model, in terms that the system should put PR at risk...

[Caribwxgirl]

Is the season getting exciting yet?

[Gustywind]

This thing continues to expanding in size in spite of the dry air in vicinity of its huge enveloppe of moisture. Convection seems on the increase since the last 3 hours.

[Blown Away]

TAFB foresees a more northerly track than indicated by the GFS model, in terms that the system should put PR at risk...

More NW to PR then WSW back under Hispaniola? Crazy, ridge pushing 97L around!

[ozonepete]

Man, this is really getting going. Impressive change to much better symmetry and big convective blowup and nice outflow.

[Macrocane]

It's looking better by the hour, sure it has to fight the dry air but if the mid level wind shear is not that high it won't affect it much.

[canes04]

keep an eye on the area near 14.8 & 49.

[northjaxpro]

Indeed, 97L is looking much better compared to even six hours ago. It seems that 97L has moistened the environment just enough, at least for the time being, to shield against that dry air that had impeded it earlier. We will have to see if this trend with the convection continues or at least sustains going into the evening.

[CourierPR]

Perhaps, but so far this season we've seen system after system that is very slow in getting organized - but never does much more than that...

Sure, these are the CV systems that have more potential, but if the environment isn't just right then it's origin doesn't matter...

In seeing the WV I'm sticking with the opinion that the ULL/TUTT environment ahead of it really isn't very suitable for development...

Frank

Apparently the meteorologists at the NHC disagree with you.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to be becoming more organized faster than I thought it would today. The low level inflow to the S through E has continued to improve with distinct cloud lines. Al there is a increased easterly motion to the low level could just south of the convection. and the last few hours there is a decent mid level circ right were the deep convection is. Convection is maintaining and becoming more concentrated. Still needs to continue for it ro develop before the islands.

best chance for something to tighten up seems to be around 15N 51 W

[BatzVI]

"Still needs to continue for it ro develop before the islands."

Personally, I'd rather it not develop.....!

[CourierPR]

Bastardi tweets that 97L (Irene) will be a Florida threat.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure falling pretty fast at the next buoy in its path ... still over a hundred miles from it pressure has probably dropped more... say 1005mb

[cycloneye]

Bastardi tweets that Irene will be a Florida threat.

So he thinks this will form first than 98L?