ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CourierPR]

Yes, Luis.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Aric,you see it here?

AL, 97, 2011081918, , BEST, 0, 136N, 493W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[JPmia]

Would be funny if this develops into Irene and hits Florida. 1999 Irene's revenge!

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

Aric,you see it here?

AL, 97, 2011081918, , BEST, 0, 136N, 493W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I had it between 14 an 15 N but thats close enough . pressure is down again ..

[ozonepete]

I'd say closer to 15N and 50W.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: I'd say closer to 15N and 50W.

If it truly is under the convection, all the models would be wrong because they all are going by the best track data

[Aric Dunn]

This is my best estimate doing a little math with what curved "banding" features that are visible in the low levels.

its actually coming along quite quickly now.. if this continues then early tomorrow we may be looking at a TD

basically anywhere within that circle not necessarily the center of the circle..

[Ivanhater]

It does look good today but remember some models don't have this going until later on, so just in case it struggles the next day or two don't think it is dying

Big picture..shes rolling along

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: I'd say closer to 15N and 50W.

If it truly is under the convection, all the models would be wrong because they all are going by the best track data

Absolutely, and it won't be the first time.

AndI think Aric has the area pretty well pinned down. I could see that as much as my 15N, 50W.

[ozonepete]

It has outflow in all 4 quadrants now. Really remarkable organization today.

[CourierPR]

JB has it at 15N and 50W.

[Hurricaneman]

I might say this is close to being a depression, and this is developing faster than any of the models have predicted

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[Blown Away]

IMO, the difference between 97L being a big cane for Florida or not will be Hispaniola. Many models go down the spine, if there is a shift of @100 miles N of Hispaniola SFL better watch out, JMHO!!

[jlauderdal]

:cheesy: Would be funny if this develops into Irene and hits Florida. 1999 Irene's revenge!

haha..its only allowed to come here as weak TS Irene..ivan gets the full version

[Patrick99]

Think I'm going to make sure my hurricane supplies are up to speed, as it seems conceivable that this could be a S. FL storm. It also seems possible that this might be sizable enough to affect a relatively large area even if the center doesn't pass directly over your locale. The circulation envelope of this wave looks pretty sprawling......this will probably be a large (in area) hurricane rather than a little buzzsaw like Andrew or Charley.

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB:

Western gulf threat period not till after Sep 1. Irene to be is my fla threat storm( near 15 north, 50 west)

BTW by next week at this time Irene and Jose, perhaps even Katia will get named MJO right in groove for atlantic development

Euro right on top of Cleo track in 1964. My track a bit further west.. see weatherbell.com post on that if you are curious

[canes04]

My gut feeling is telling me this is going north of DR.
Not what I want to see here in SFL.

[SootyTern]

Luis,

I'm on your beautiful island for the next week, until Aug 28, with only occasional internet service. What is the threat level of this storm to Puerto Rico and the timing of it? Thanks, I don't have time to reread this whole entire thread...

[shaggy]

Looking at the RGB you can see some inflow in the lower clouds. I'd certainly put the center north of 14N. If the models have missed this and it forms north of where they think the entire track could shift north and if it develops more rapidly it could even turn that much further north and miss wide right by a hundred miles.

Point is until theres an actual center this is all up in the air. I'd imagine with the rapidly improving satellite appearance they will be warming a plane up for a flight by tomorrow or sunday am?

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the RGB you can see some inflow in the lower clouds. I'd certainly put the center north of 14N. If the models have missed this and it forms north of where they think the entire track could shift north and if it develops more rapidly it could even turn that much further north and miss wide right by a hundred miles.

Point is until theres an actual center this is all up in the air. I'd imagine with the rapidly improving satellite appearance they will be warming a plane up for a flight by tomorrow or sunday am?

they have it set for tomorrow. I bet at 8pm they go up to at least 50% maybe 60%