ATL: IRENE - Models

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KWT
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#941 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:52 pm

Yep Ivanhater, mind you the battle between 98L and 99L will probably slow development down a little. Might be a close call though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#942 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:52 pm

36 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#943 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:00 pm

48 hours

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#944 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:03 pm

GFS looks too far south again, move the track 1-1.5N and its probably closer to the truth. If thats the case it will hit hispaniola.

NAM is VERY agressive isn't it!
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#945 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:05 pm

Imo, I think she makes landfall between NOLA to Hatteras with the highest risk between Biloxi to Peninsular FL...Lets see where she ends up this run...
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Re:

#946 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:06 pm

KWT wrote:GFS looks too far south again, move the track 1-1.5N and its probably closer to the truth. If thats the case it will hit hispaniola.

NAM is VERY agressive isn't it!



NAM actually looked reasonable given present location, GFS seems abit to far south to start...let's see..
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#947 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:06 pm

Hard to call at this early stage to be fair, but I will say IF the circulation sets up with the MLC, the ECM looks VERY good with its current forecast.

Track alot like Fay if thats the case...well Faylike for a while anyway!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#948 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:07 pm

60 hours


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#949 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:07 pm

H+72 just SE of DR


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#950 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:10 pm

78 hours

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#951 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:11 pm

Move that track northwards somewhat and thats very close to Hispaniola or over the island, just like the ECM which has better initial idea.
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#952 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:12 pm

Yeah I think the 00Z GFS run will probably initialize further north, maybe around 15N...look at that weakness there in the Western Atlantic, if this system got strong enough, you would think it could feel that and start a recurve track into it?

But the GFS only shows a weak low south of Hipaniola so likely to keep crawling west very slowly...
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#953 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:12 pm

84 hours...still south of Hispaniola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#954 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:13 pm

90 hours

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#955 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:13 pm

Look how deep that trough is on this GFS run..hmmm. Bermuda High displaced way out in the east-central Atlantic :uarrow:
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#956 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:14 pm

I could be wrong but given current location of system and where initialized could be a tad further N then where the GFS is indicating...TBD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#957 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:14 pm

96 hours

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Re:

#958 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:Look how deep that trough is on this GFS run..hmmm. Bermuda High displaced way out in the east-central Atlantic :uarrow:



Certainly appears deeper in the 3-4 day range than priors...well see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#959 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:15 pm

102 hours

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#960 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:15 pm

Looks nearly identical to Emily's path (and ultimate death) so far....trough not quite as deep as when Emily was at that location though...
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