ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Another one that won't make it to H?

Still can get to hurricane.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192040
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 04 20110819
203030 2853N 08921W 4589 06558 0353 -079 //// 005010 011 /// /// 05
203100 2851N 08920W 4448 06775 0353 -099 //// 016012 012 /// /// 05
203130 2849N 08920W 4389 06882 0360 -108 //// 019011 012 /// /// 05
203200 2847N 08920W 4332 06981 0365 -114 //// 027011 011 /// /// 05
203230 2845N 08919W 4280 07072 0372 -120 //// 026011 011 /// /// 05
203300 2843N 08919W 4237 07154 0378 -125 //// 026012 014 /// /// 05
203330 2840N 08918W 4201 07218 0384 -126 //// 028014 014 /// /// 05
203400 2838N 08918W 4145 07320 0389 -133 //// 039013 013 /// /// 05
203430 2836N 08917W 4105 07396 0395 -139 //// 041013 014 /// /// 05
203500 2834N 08917W 4054 07489 0400 -138 //// 042009 010 /// /// 05
203530 2832N 08916W 4016 07561 0406 -141 //// 034007 008 /// /// 05
203600 2830N 08916W 3971 07646 0410 -150 //// 048007 007 /// /// 05
203630 2828N 08915W 3941 07704 0415 -155 //// 042007 007 /// /// 05
203700 2826N 08915W 3923 07737 0417 -160 //// 042008 008 /// /// 05
203730 2824N 08914W 3925 07731 0414 -158 //// 038007 008 /// /// 05
203800 2821N 08914W 3925 07731 0413 -159 //// 046007 007 /// /// 05
203830 2819N 08913W 3923 07731 0411 -158 //// 057007 007 /// /// 05
203900 2817N 08913W 3925 07728 0411 -160 //// 058008 008 /// /// 05
203930 2814N 08912W 3923 07732 0411 -164 //// 064007 008 /// /// 05
204000 2812N 08911W 3925 07725 0409 -165 //// 071004 004 003 000 05
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Excerpt from discussion: Watch out folks in Belize!

THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY
BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS

[cycloneye]

Observation Time: Friday, 20:46Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.7N 88.9W
Location: 172 miles (277 km) to the SSE (156°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -19°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192050
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 05 20110819
204030 2810N 08910W 3925 07725 0407 -165 //// 053005 005 004 000 01
204100 2807N 08908W 3926 07720 0406 -163 //// 040005 006 006 000 01
204130 2805N 08907W 3926 07720 0405 -161 //// 038006 006 003 001 05
204200 2802N 08906W 3924 07723 0404 -160 //// 052004 004 003 002 05
204230 2800N 08905W 3926 07719 0405 -160 //// 038002 002 002 000 01
204300 2758N 08904W 3925 07722 0405 -160 //// 007002 003 000 001 05
204330 2755N 08903W 3926 07720 0405 -160 //// 008003 003 000 000 05
204400 2753N 08901W 3926 07722 0406 -160 //// 074001 001 000 000 05
204430 2750N 08900W 3926 07723 0407 -156 //// 067001 002 000 002 05
204500 2748N 08859W 3930 07715 0406 -155 //// 027003 003 000 002 05
204530 2745N 08858W 3925 07723 0406 -156 //// 023003 004 000 001 05
204600 2743N 08856W 3926 07720 0406 -157 //// 013004 005 000 001 05
204630 2740N 08855W 3922 07729 0406 -155 //// 069002 002 002 002 05
204700 2738N 08854W 3928 07716 0404 -155 -178 069003 003 001 001 03
204730 2735N 08853W 3925 07721 0404 -155 -194 060004 004 001 002 03
204800 2733N 08852W 3926 07719 0404 -155 -210 059005 005 000 001 03
204830 2730N 08851W 3927 07716 0403 -155 -245 042006 006 000 002 03
204900 2728N 08849W 3925 07719 0403 -155 -356 054005 006 /// /// 03
204930 2725N 08848W 3926 07717 0403 -155 -312 039003 003 000 001 03
205000 2723N 08847W 3926 07721 0404 -155 //// 017002 002 000 000 05
$$

[CrazyC83]

A Hurricane Watch or Warning will probably be needed if Recon finds a stronger storm. Those numbers probably should have called for a Hurricane Watch to be issued now for Belize.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192100
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 06 20110819
205030 2720N 08846W 3926 07719 0405 -155 -180 360002 002 000 000 03
205100 2718N 08845W 3926 07722 0406 -155 //// 035001 001 000 000 05
205130 2718N 08845W 3926 07722 0405 -155 //// 355002 002 001 001 05
205200 2713N 08842W 3926 07722 0405 -155 //// 040001 002 000 002 05
205230 2710N 08841W 3926 07720 0404 -155 //// 063001 002 000 001 01
205300 2708N 08840W 3926 07719 0403 -155 //// 072002 003 001 000 05
205330 2706N 08839W 3926 07717 0402 -155 //// 083002 003 001 002 05
205400 2703N 08837W 3925 07720 0402 -156 //// 040001 001 002 002 05
205430 2701N 08836W 3926 07716 0401 -155 //// 059002 003 001 001 05
205500 2658N 08835W 3927 07714 0401 -159 //// 050003 003 001 001 05
205530 2656N 08834W 3925 07719 0401 -163 //// 134002 003 000 001 05
205600 2653N 08833W 3926 07714 0399 -165 //// 111003 004 001 003 05
205630 2651N 08831W 3925 07715 0399 -166 //// 097003 003 000 001 05
205700 2648N 08830W 3923 07720 0399 -169 //// 118003 005 001 000 05
205730 2646N 08829W 3927 07712 0399 -165 //// 088005 005 001 000 05
205800 2643N 08828W 3925 07715 0399 -165 //// 095006 006 001 002 05
205830 2641N 08827W 3925 07717 0399 -168 //// 105007 007 000 001 05
205900 2641N 08827W 3925 07717 0398 -164 //// 092006 007 001 001 05
205930 2636N 08824W 3926 07714 0398 -160 //// 090006 007 000 002 05
210000 2633N 08823W 3922 07721 0398 -162 //// 098006 007 000 001 05
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192120
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 08 20110819
211030 2542N 08759W 3926 07710 0395 -168 //// 127007 008 002 001 05
211100 2539N 08758W 3926 07710 0394 -166 //// 123007 008 000 001 05
211130 2537N 08756W 3925 07711 0394 -169 //// 131008 009 000 003 05
211200 2534N 08755W 3927 07707 0393 -170 //// 143008 008 000 001 05
211230 2532N 08754W 3925 07711 0393 -170 //// 156007 007 001 002 05
211300 2529N 08753W 3926 07709 0392 -170 //// 153006 007 001 001 05
211330 2527N 08752W 3926 07707 0391 -170 //// 148007 007 000 002 05
211400 2524N 08751W 3925 07707 0391 -170 //// 148007 008 000 002 05
211430 2522N 08750W 3925 07707 0390 -170 //// 154009 009 000 002 01
211500 2519N 08748W 3929 07701 0390 -170 //// 152009 010 000 001 05
211530 2517N 08747W 3926 07706 0390 -170 //// 137009 010 001 001 01
211600 2514N 08746W 3926 07706 0391 -170 //// 140007 008 001 001 01
211630 2512N 08745W 3926 07707 0391 -170 //// 125008 008 001 002 05
211700 2509N 08744W 3926 07706 0391 -170 //// 127007 008 002 001 01
211730 2507N 08743W 3926 07706 0392 -170 //// 109006 006 004 001 01
211800 2505N 08742W 3925 07710 0392 -170 //// 103005 006 001 000 01
211830 2502N 08740W 3926 07706 0391 -170 //// 107005 006 000 001 05
211900 2500N 08739W 3926 07706 0391 -170 //// 112004 005 000 001 01
211930 2457N 08738W 3925 07708 0391 -168 //// 109006 007 000 001 05
212000 2455N 08737W 3929 07701 0390 -166 //// 094005 005 000 000 05
$$

[ozonepete]

A Hurricane Watch or Warning will probably be needed if Recon finds a stronger storm. Those numbers probably should have called for a Hurricane Watch to be issued now for Belize.

Totally agree. RECON is going to find a LOT more than they did earlier today. I'm really thinking it makes Cat 1 now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192130
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 09 20110819
212030 2452N 08736W 3925 07708 0391 -166 //// 094006 006 001 001 01
212100 2450N 08735W 3927 07705 0392 -165 //// 107006 007 004 001 01
212130 2447N 08734W 3925 07709 0392 -167 //// 120005 006 005 003 01
212200 2445N 08732W 3929 07701 0391 -165 //// 125004 005 010 002 01
212230 2442N 08731W 3924 07711 0395 -168 //// 125004 004 009 001 01
212300 2440N 08730W 3923 07735 0411 -165 //// 129005 007 012 006 01
212330 2437N 08729W 3926 07725 0410 -161 //// 136003 005 018 001 01
212400 2435N 08728W 3927 07724 0409 -163 //// 095002 005 011 000 01
212430 2432N 08727W 3926 07724 0410 -160 //// 094003 004 007 000 01
212500 2430N 08726W 3926 07726 0410 -160 //// 107003 003 001 001 05
212530 2427N 08724W 3927 07723 0410 -159 //// 092003 004 002 001 05
212600 2425N 08723W 3926 07724 0410 -159 //// 059003 004 003 000 01
212630 2422N 08722W 3923 07729 0409 -160 //// 028003 004 007 000 01
212700 2420N 08721W 3927 07723 0410 -160 //// 358004 005 012 002 01
212730 2417N 08720W 3925 07727 0411 -160 //// 004002 004 014 001 01
212800 2415N 08719W 3926 07725 0412 -163 //// 077002 004 007 001 01
212830 2412N 08718W 3927 07725 0412 -163 //// 175001 001 001 001 01
212900 2410N 08717W 3926 07729 0413 -160 //// 222001 002 001 000 05
212930 2407N 08715W 3926 07730 0413 -161 //// 227003 005 001 001 05
213000 2405N 08714W 3926 07727 0412 -163 //// 291003 004 000 000 05

[KWT]

Gotta admit, its really looking good now, I'd say a hurricane is possible though it may just run out of time like several other systems on this track have done before.

Its in real good conditions aloft thats for sure!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192140
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 10 20110819
213030 2402N 08713W 3925 07730 0412 -158 //// 285002 003 000 001 05
213100 2400N 08712W 3927 07725 0412 -156 //// 277005 006 000 002 05
213130 2358N 08711W 3926 07726 0411 -159 //// 299006 007 000 001 05
213200 2355N 08710W 3926 07727 0412 -162 //// 306005 007 000 000 01
213230 2352N 08709W 3926 07728 0413 -163 //// 310005 007 001 001 05
213300 2350N 08707W 3925 07730 0413 -164 //// 313006 007 001 001 05
213330 2347N 08706W 3927 07725 0412 -164 //// 300010 011 001 001 01
213400 2345N 08705W 3925 07729 0412 -165 //// 292010 010 000 001 05
213430 2342N 08704W 3927 07725 0411 -162 //// 301009 011 001 001 05
213500 2340N 08703W 3925 07729 0412 -163 //// 322005 006 000 001 05
213530 2337N 08702W 3926 07725 0410 -160 //// 337004 004 000 002 05
213600 2335N 08701W 3926 07726 0411 -162 //// 328003 004 000 002 05
213630 2332N 08700W 3918 07737 0406 -161 //// 263003 005 000 002 05
213700 2330N 08658W 3918 07733 0405 -160 //// 022001 002 000 000 05
213730 2328N 08657W 3921 07728 0404 -160 //// 339004 004 000 002 01
213800 2325N 08656W 3925 07722 0404 -155 //// 315005 006 000 000 01
213830 2323N 08655W 3919 07728 0402 -158 //// 325006 007 002 000 05
213900 2321N 08654W 3924 07720 0402 -160 //// 334006 006 005 001 01
213930 2318N 08653W 3918 07730 0401 -163 //// 342005 006 003 000 01
214000 2316N 08652W 3923 07720 0401 -160 //// 349002 003 005 000 01
$$

[BZSTORM]

oh whopee are u all saying we have another potential Hurr Richard like last year? The area now indicated for landfall Mullin river is swampland and water table is at max countrywide. Folks I really hope for my country sake that it doesnt make hurricane and just remains a very strong TS at landfall.

[cycloneye]

oh whopee are u all saying we have another potential Hurr Richard like last year? The area now indicated for landfall Mullin river is swampland and water table is at max countrywide. Folks I really hope for my country sake that it doesnt make hurricane and just remains a very strong TS at landfall.

I also hope it does not reach hurricane strengh. I know that you are preparing for this.Stay safe and dry there.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192150
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 11 20110819
214030 2314N 08651W 3922 07723 0400 -158 //// 336002 003 004 000 01
214100 2311N 08650W 3917 07733 0401 -164 //// 344002 003 000 001 05
214130 2309N 08649W 3923 07722 0400 -165 //// 315002 003 001 001 05
214200 2307N 08648W 3921 07724 0400 -164 //// 304003 003 001 001 05
214230 2304N 08647W 3917 07734 0401 -161 //// 316002 002 000 001 05
214300 2302N 08646W 3923 07721 0400 -160 //// 322002 003 000 001 05
214330 2300N 08645W 3919 07729 0400 -160 //// 326002 002 000 001 05
214400 2257N 08644W 3919 07725 0399 -158 //// 337003 004 000 001 05
214430 2255N 08643W 3923 07718 0400 -162 //// 339005 005 000 000 05
214500 2253N 08642W 3919 07728 0400 -165 //// 328003 004 000 001 01
214530 2250N 08641W 3921 07724 0400 -165 //// 331003 004 000 001 05
214600 2248N 08640W 3922 07722 0399 -160 //// 316002 002 000 001 05
214630 2246N 08639W 3922 07722 0400 -160 //// 274001 002 000 001 05
214700 2243N 08638W 3919 07725 0400 -160 //// 217002 002 001 001 05
214730 2241N 08637W 3920 07725 0399 -161 //// 271002 002 000 001 05
214800 2239N 08635W 3919 07725 0399 -161 //// 285003 004 001 001 05
214830 2236N 08634W 3921 07724 0400 -160 //// 242003 003 000 002 05
214900 2236N 08634W 3921 07724 0400 -158 //// 218003 004 000 001 05
214930 2232N 08632W 3923 07722 0400 -157 //// 218002 003 000 001 05
215000 2229N 08631W 3919 07726 0400 -160 //// 251002 003 001 001 05
$$

[Macrocane]

Harvey has improved A LOT since this morning, better outflow, much better banding, stronger convection and even the size has increased. I would dare to say that Harvey is the best looking system in the Atlantic since Arlene and a hurricane is a very "good" possibility. And its effect may be felt even in the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador as tropical cyclones in the Bay of Campeche usually lift the monsoon trough and place it over those countries. Let's be prepared. I will try to keep you updated today and on the weekend with preparations and impacts in the countries.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192210
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 13 20110819
220030 2142N 08607W 3920 07726 0401 -170 //// 245001 002 002 000 01
220100 2140N 08606W 3921 07726 0401 -167 //// 074001 002 003 000 01
220130 2137N 08605W 3920 07727 0401 -168 //// 083003 004 003 000 01
220200 2135N 08603W 3921 07725 0401 -165 //// 080004 005 003 000 01
220230 2133N 08602W 3921 07726 0401 -165 //// 099002 002 004 000 01
220300 2131N 08601W 3921 07726 0401 -164 //// 141001 001 002 000 01
220330 2128N 08600W 3921 07726 0402 -163 //// 092002 003 003 000 01
220400 2126N 08559W 3921 07727 0402 -164 //// 049001 002 002 002 05
220430 2124N 08558W 3921 07726 0401 -160 //// 010002 003 002 001 01
220500 2122N 08556W 3922 07721 0399 -161 //// 003003 004 002 001 05
220530 2119N 08555W 3919 07727 0399 -163 //// 015004 005 002 001 05
220600 2117N 08554W 3922 07722 0399 -157 //// 049004 004 002 001 05
220630 2115N 08553W 3922 07722 0399 -155 //// 048004 005 002 001 05
220700 2112N 08552W 3919 07726 0399 -159 //// 034005 005 001 001 05
220730 2110N 08551W 3921 07723 0399 -160 //// 009005 005 002 001 01
220800 2108N 08549W 3922 07722 0399 -160 //// 033005 005 001 002 05
220830 2106N 08548W 3919 07726 0399 -163 //// 040005 005 001 001 01
220900 2103N 08547W 3921 07723 0398 -163 //// 029005 005 002 001 01
220930 2101N 08546W 3921 07722 0398 -164 //// 029006 006 002 000 01
221000 2059N 08545W 3921 07723 0398 -165 //// 025006 006 001 001 01

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192220
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 14 20110819
221030 2056N 08543W 3922 07720 0397 -162 //// 043006 007 005 002 05
221100 2054N 08542W 3919 07724 0397 -163 //// 055006 006 012 004 01
221130 2052N 08541W 3921 07721 0395 -164 //// 057007 007 014 003 01
221200 2050N 08540W 3920 07721 0395 -163 //// 060006 007 003 001 05
221230 2047N 08539W 3921 07721 0396 -166 //// 061008 009 000 001 05
221300 2045N 08538W 3922 07718 0395 -169 //// 062009 010 002 002 05
221330 2043N 08537W 3919 07722 0395 -166 //// 061008 009 003 001 01
221400 2041N 08535W 3922 07718 0395 -165 //// 058008 008 002 000 05
221430 2038N 08534W 3921 07718 0395 -165 //// 053007 008 002 001 01
221500 2036N 08533W 3922 07718 0395 -165 //// 051008 008 001 000 01
221530 2034N 08532W 3919 07723 0396 -165 //// 056008 009 001 001 05
221600 2032N 08531W 3921 07719 0396 -165 //// 060009 009 001 001 01
221630 2029N 08530W 3921 07721 0397 -165 //// 062009 009 001 001 05
221700 2027N 08528W 3921 07722 0397 -167 //// 065009 009 000 003 05
221730 2025N 08527W 3921 07721 0396 -168 //// 064009 010 001 001 05
221800 2023N 08526W 3919 07724 0396 -165 //// 061009 010 000 001 05
221830 2020N 08525W 3920 07722 0396 -165 //// 053009 009 001 003 05
221900 2018N 08524W 3919 07723 0396 -167 //// 050008 009 001 002 05
221930 2016N 08523W 3919 07724 0397 -169 //// 048009 010 002 001 01
222000 2013N 08522W 3919 07725 0398 -170 //// 044009 010 002 000 01
$$

[ozonepete]

oh whopee are u all saying we have another potential Hurr Richard like last year? The area now indicated for landfall Mullin river is swampland and water table is at max countrywide. Folks I really hope for my country sake that it doesnt make hurricane and just remains a very strong TS at landfall.

We all hope it washes out before it ever gets to you. But it doesn't look that it will. Be safe my friend and finish up your preparations.