ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Some where tracking the MLC and thinking it was headed north of west..now you can see the MLC taking over on the SW side heading west. Not there yet
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[ozonepete]

Nothing at the surface yet

Be careful with this version of ASCAT. It doesn't show which wind barbs are contaminated entries. And there are probably a LOT that are contaminated by heavy rain. Also, that image shows the circulation too far off to the south. I don't trust EUMETSATs version - it looks nicer than NOAA's, but I think it needs work.

[Aric Dunn]

The point is, I'm not getting carried away with the MLC yet. Not saying that is not where the LLC could set up though.

Yeah, I've seen even better looking MLC not have anything at the surface, Emily proved how badly we can be fooled by such features.

Still it does look like its trying to sdpin up something around that region.

the MLC is what eventually worked down with emily. there has to be convection for this to happen.. so only logical conclusion is to look where the convection is for a LLC.. same thing happened yesterday with harvey.

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing at the surface yet

[img]http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/oscat_50_prod/products/2011231_10084_10085_5.gif[/mg]

Be careful with this version of ASCAT. It doesn't show which wind barbs are contaminated entries. And there are probably a LOT that are contaminated by heavy rain. Also, that image shows the circulation too far off to the south. I don't trust EUMETSATs version - it looks nicer than NOAA's, but I think it needs work.

its also almost 7 hours old.

[ozonepete]

Nothing at the surface yet

[img]http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/oscat_50_prod/products/2011231_10084_10085_5.gif[/mg]

Be careful with this version of ASCAT. It doesn't show which wind barbs are contaminated entries. And there are probably a LOT that are contaminated by heavy rain. Also, that image shows the circulation too far off to the south. I don't trust EUMETSATs version - it looks nicer than NOAA's, but I think it needs work.

its also almost 7 hours old.

Very good point

[KWT]

Some where tracking the MLC and thinking it was headed north of west..now you can see the MLC taking over on the SW side heading west. Not there yet
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

FWIW I can see a weak broad circulation at lower levels to the SE of the convection, it shows up nicely on the high resolution loops and thats what the Vort maps clocked onto as well to some extent.

Aric, it can work both ways, I've seen plenty of naked LLC's switch energy and the whole lot moves west...I saw that with Emily at 60W where the whole complex shifted westwards and reformed over the center of low level vort, remember that day clear as anything.

[ozonepete]

The point is, I'm not getting carried away with the MLC yet. Not saying that is not where the LLC could set up though.

Yeah, I've seen even better looking MLC not have anything at the surface, Emily proved how badly we can be fooled by such features.

Still it does look like its trying to sdpin up something around that region.

the MLC is what eventually worked down with emily. there has to be convection for this to happen.. so only logical conclusion is to look where the convection is for a LLC.. same thing happened yesterday with harvey.

I have seen Aric pick the LLC way better than the models or most of us have and he's done it at least 3 times so far this season. His logic is sound. The NHC was surprised where the center of HArvey was this morning but Aric wasn't. I'm not trying to throw kudos around - I'm just saying he makes good points. His logic for this system seems really correct to me.

[KWT]

Good loop here to track the system, though note it will lose Vis imagery very soon:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

Can clearly see nothing with regards to westerlies...also there is turning quite far south of the convection between 12-13N and 48-52W, close to where the vort estimate was made earlier.

Also note the strong easterlies going into the MLC as well, as I said tends to suggest at least something is getting going up there.

I think we have a broad weak turning south of the MLC with probably a more stronger circulation starting to set up in the MLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Good loop here to track the system, though note it will lose Vis imagery very soon:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

Can clearly see nothing with regards to westerlies...also there is turning quite far south of the convection between 12-13N and 48-52W, close to where the vort estimate was made earlier.

Also note the strong easterlies going into the MLC as well, as I said tends to suggest at least something is getting going up there.

I think we have a broad weak turning south of the MLC with probably a more stronger circulation starting to set up in the MLC.

the area to the south is a "kink" ( for lack of a better term) in the old itcz that is getting drawn up on the east side of the large circ with 97L giving the appearance something is there..

[Macrocane]

97L has become better organized since this morning, I have no doubt about it: the outflow is much better, there's a better mid level circulation and some bands have developed, the only thing that looks a little worse is the convection as it has been weakening this afternoon but may be part of the diurnal cycles.

[Adoquín]

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

If it is the LLC then the ECM looks spot on with the track and with it...Hello Hispaniola and with it weakening...hopefully the ECM is correct because it reduces the threat of a major in a HUGE way...

Should be code red one way or the other.

provided other assumptions in the model pan out of course, and no quick strenghtening. otherwise it is a new ball game

[Gustywind]

97L

[weatherwindow]

nws miami and key west have terminated marine forecasts wednesday 8/23...marine forecasts nearshore and offshore normally cover the next seven days...my contacts with the nws office in key west before and during georges informed me that these forecasts are held pending coordination with nhc to insure accurate storm-focused marine products....this tells me that the nws and nhc consider this a credible threat to the respective cwas.....rich

[KWT]

provided other assumptions in the model pan out of course, and no quick strenghtening. otherwise it is a new ball game

Yep very true, not sure there'd be a whole lot of difference with the track though, may just mean the Bahamas would be at higher risk then they were yesterday...

NHC should go with 60%, they could go higher but no major sign of a LLC yet. Recon should be a go tomorrow...

[Cryomaniac]

97L

The following is entirely the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is based on no evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it shouldn't be used for any purpose

To my (very) untrained eye, 97L seems to be getting "the look". I'd be surprised if it didn't develop at all. Not so sure I buy some of the earlier "doom cane" scenarios though.

[MGC]

Organization of 97L has increased this afternoon with considerable convective incease noted. MLC is quite pronounce on the satellite loop. Not quite sure how long it will take for the circulation to bore to the surface. I'm thinking the odds are excellent for a TD to form before 97L enters the Caribbean Sea. Only thing holding 97L back is the dry air surrounding it. Getting concerned that this will be a GOM threat.....MGC

[KWT]

If the MLC keeps that presentation I can't imagine it'll take long for it to develop a lower level circulation...could be a TD in the next 24hrs if current trends continue.

[ROCK]

nothing at the surface....convection is decreasing however cloud structure looks good....

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully people don't think that if it decides to move into the carib that it's going to automatically be disruppted by mountainous terrain on the islands. There's also a very good chance that it might move over the flatter part of Cuba, or perhaps even go through the channel allowing it not to weaken at all.... There's just as good of a chance of that happening....

[KWT]

Hopefully people don't think that if it decides to move into the carib that it's going to automatically be disruppted by mountainous terrain on the islands. There's also a very good chance that it might move over the flatter part of Cuba, or perhaps even go through the channel allowing it not to weaken at all.... There's just as good of a chance of that happening....

If it heads over Hispaniola it will get weakened at least a little...

howver the conditions aloft are good and I certainly wouldn't bank on much weakening, though its hard to ignore Hispaniola's track record!