ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Too close for comfort!

000
FZNT02 KNHC 192144
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 21.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N49W 1007 MB. WITHIN 420 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N55W 1004 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NE SEMICIRCLE NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16.5N62W 1002 MB. WITHIN 600 NM NE AND WITHIN 120 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.


$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[northjaxpro]

If the MLC keeps that presentation I can't imagine it'll take long for it to develop a lower level circulation...could be a TD in the next 24hrs if current trends continue.

I agree KWT

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection is decreasing, but in my own personal opinion it should rebuild after midnight...

[msbee]

97L

Gusty
that looks like it is heading right at you.
what does Meteo. FR say? any watches yet?

[KWT]

Convection is decreasing, but in my own personal opinion it should rebuild after midnight...

Classic developing system, we have just gone past Dmin, give it another 6-9hrs and we'll probably see another fairly good flare-up of convection again.

[Gustywind]

97L

Gusty
that looks like it is heading right at you.
what does Meteo. FR say? any watches yet?

Waouw , Barbara, looks like.. view on this forward angle and you're may be right?. Since yesterday it seems at Guadeloupe could be one of the most island who may feel the "possible effects"of this feature?! Like you and our other friends in the Carib islands we SHOULD continue to watch it carefully hoping that he won't track in our area. You're right concerning Meteo-France, they have already issued an yellow alert (a watch for strong showers/ tstorms but not a watch Cyclone) for Guadeloupe, Martinica and...the Northen Leewards for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. If current increasing trend continues then we could eventually see another colors maybe tommorow, but that's another story and the one i hope we won't deal with. Don't let your guard down Barbara, it's too early to know if a particular island could be directly impacted. Let's wait and see.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

8pm TWO

Up to 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

[Hurricaneman]

New storms popping near the mid level center

[wzrgirl1]

8pm TWO

Up to 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

Wow 20 mph....it's booking!!

[KWT]

Well we have got our code red, no real surprise given the current presentation.

Should also mean recon is very likely to be on tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Look at that white pop in the middle.

[Gustywind]

Look at that white pop in the middle.

And what is your opinion about that Cycloneye? Would you suggest that we could see the early stages of something signinficant during the next 12H?

[Adoquín]

:eek: Too close for comfort!

000
FZNT02 KNHC 192144
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

16.5 /62w is west northwest of Gaudeloupe? Maybe should start getting somethings done, just in case they are right.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 21.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N49W 1007 MB. WITHIN 420 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N55W 1004 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NE SEMICIRCLE NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16.5N62W 1002 MB. WITHIN 600 NM NE AND WITHIN 120 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.


$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[KWT]

Looks like a real good convective burst going off with the center of the MLC, maybe a hot tower?

[cycloneye]

And what is your opinion about that Cycloneye? Would you suggest that we could see the early stages of something signinficant during the next 12H?

Well,not as significant that may be a hurricane or a Tropical Storm prior to arriving at the Leewards,but is indicating it is in a steady organizing phase.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 49W
FROM 9N-17N WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 48W-55W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 17 KT.
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

[gatorcane]

Look how the NHC red circle in the 8pm EST advisory actually extends more south than where the current MLC is located. The circle does not center around the MLC.

In other words, they are thinking there is a chance the center could form further south than where we see the MLC up around 15N.

Looks like they are hugging the GFS

[Adoquín]

Look at that white pop in the middle.

I noticed it too...not amused, but very telling.

People freaking out in San Juan forecast probabilities: 60 percent in 24 hours.

[Gustywind]

And what is your opinion about that Cycloneye? Would you suggest that we could see the early stages of something signinficant during the next 12H?

Well,not as significant that may be a hurricane or a Tropical Storm prior to arriving at the Leewards,but is indicating it is in a steady organizing phase.

thanks that give us some hope in the Leewards but as usual in the tropics we never know so let's wait and see...

[ConvergenceZone]

So now the question is, depression sometime tomorrow? or holding off until Sunday?