ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

So now the question is, depression sometime tomorrow? or holding off until Sunday?

Recon will have the answer tommorow afternoon.

[Caribwxgirl]

So now the question is, depression sometime tomorrow? or holding off until Sunday?

I say depression tomorrow...this is based on absolutely no scientific or meteorological facts but rather pure observation from my untrained eye looking at the images and following the discussion.

[jlauderdal]

Look at that white pop in the middle.

hot tower alert

[wxman57]

Quite impressive now. Development chances next 48 hours at least 90%. Definitely a TD or even a TS tomorrow if this trend continues tonight.

[gatorcane]

Quite impressive now. Development chances next 48 hours at least 80%.

Wxman, do you think the LLC is trying to form further north under the MLC, near 15N?

Because that should make a difference down the road on where it ends up and also how much land interaction will take place.

[msbee]

97L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir4.jpg

Gusty
that looks like it is heading right at you.
what does Meteo. FR say? any watches yet?

Waouw , Barbara, looks like.. view on this forward angle and you're may be right?. Since yesterday it seems at Guadeloupe could be one of the most island who may feel the "possible effects"of this feature?! Like you and our other friends in the Carib islands we SHOULD continue to watch it carefully hoping that he won't track in our area. You're right concerning Meteo-France, they have already issued an yellow alert (a watch for strong showers/ tstorms but not a watch Cyclone) for Guadeloupe, Martinica and...the Northen Leewards for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. If current increasing trend continues then we could eventually see another colors maybe tommorow, but that's another story and the one i hope we won't deal with. Don't let your guard down Barbara, it's too early to know if a particular island could be directly impacted. Let's wait and see.

All we can do is wait and see at this point..... and be careful.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

what does it look like the overall size of this system will be? Will it be compact like Charley was, or huge like Jeanne was? Hopefully not Flloyd size.
Katrina was so big that even though she was only a Cat 3 at landfall, her surge was liek a much bigger storm.

[ozonepete]

Quite impressive now. Development chances next 48 hours at least 80%.

Wxman, do you think the LLC is trying to form further north under the MLC, near 15N?

I hope he says yes. It sure looks like it to me. And it wouldn't be the first time the models and other evidence were wrong.

[KWT]

jlauderdal, yeah sure looks that way, should help development. Development earlier in turn should help to lift the system into Hispaniola or maybe even a smidge north of there...which in turn increases the chances it goes north before the US...though I'd not raise my hopes about that to be honest...

That sort of MLC is impressive, NHC kept the expanded red circle due to the vort and the weak turning that is further south BUT clearly the MLC is going to try and be the main feature, esp if there is a big burst soon...

[northjaxpro]

Look at that white pop in the middle.

hot tower alert

Yeah, it certainly looks like one. If it is a hot tower, that is a very telling sign that this system is about to take off.

[ozonepete]

what does it look like the overall size of this system will be? Will it be compact like Charley was, or huge like Jeanne was? Hopefully not Flloyd size.
Katrina was so big that even though she was only a Cat 3 at landfall, her surge was liek a much bigger storm.

this has a really big circulation envelope. It should be quite large as it strengthens and consolidates. But I would really want to hear what wxman57 says...

[wxman57]

Quite impressive now. Development chances next 48 hours at least 80%.

Wxman, do you think the LLC is trying to form further north under the MLC, near 15N?

I hope he says yes. It sure looks like it to me. And it wouldn't be the first time the models and other evidence were wrong.

Looks that way to me, but I wouldn't think it'll make THAT much difference way down the road. I still think it's looking more like it may pass west of the FL Peninsula. How far west? I'll tell you next week.

[storm4u]

every frame is looking better and better

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if it is really big, it better pass really far west of the west coast of Florida. We would love the rare surf along the coast for the surfers, but the rest you can keep!

though I don't want to sound like I'm wishing this storm on anyone else either.

[gatorcane]

Thanks but it certainly looks like it is gaining lattitude gradually looking at the SAT loops. If I extrapolate, looks like Northern Leewards/Puerto Rico area..so far I am not seeing the W to WSW dip some of the models like the GFS and CMC are wanting to do with it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[KWT]

Looks that way to me, but I wouldn't think it'll make THAT much difference way down the road. I still think it's looking more like it may pass west of the FL Peninsula. How far west? I'll tell you next week.

The weakness is a little more pronounced in recent model runs but its still not that strong its got to be said so always possible that it misses the first bite of the cherry like it does on the GFS.

If the formation 1 degree further north is what happens, it'll probably make a huge difference with regards to intensity between say 96-144hrs, the difference between a track over the Caribbean waters and a track over 2000M ground will be noticeable..unless it pulls a Georges of course!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

If the LLC is located that far north it could have an adverse outcome to Puerto Rico and DR in terms of its track and its proximity to those islands if it begins moving WNW. The hurricane hunter should be very helpful tomorrow determining this interrogation.

[storm4u]

97l looks to be moving wnw

[cycloneye]

Someone said "Hot tower alert"

[KWT]

Yeah does look like a hot tower, good job becasuse the convection has really gone down the pan in the last few hours thanks to Dmin.