ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Edit: This post was a double post, sorry.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Hopefully he does not finish building off an eyewall before landfall. If he does complete his eyewall, there really isn't anything to stop him from bombing besides landfall. But like I said, until an eyewall is established intensification will be more "gradual."

(Not a professional forecast, just my opinion through observation)

That's solid logic. Unfortunately, it looks like it may very well complete the eyewall. We need another microwave pass.

[supercane]

[SouthDadeFish]

I really think Hurricane Watches/Warnings should be posted at 11pm...

Another Edit: Dropsonde report that just came in measured 48 knot winds at the surface, which was dropped in "maximum wind band."

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200210
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 37 20110820
020030 1729N 08457W 6967 03179 //// +086 //// 096036 037 021 006 01
020100 1731N 08457W 6967 03179 //// +080 //// 091034 034 023 004 01
020130 1733N 08457W 6960 03189 //// +079 //// 094031 032 024 005 01
020200 1735N 08457W 6965 03181 //// +090 //// 095031 031 022 001 01
020230 1737N 08457W 6968 03177 //// +090 //// 095031 031 019 001 01
020300 1738N 08457W 6968 03178 //// +091 //// 096030 030 020 001 01
020330 1740N 08458W 6965 03182 //// +088 //// 099029 030 018 001 05
020400 1742N 08458W 6967 03179 //// +087 //// 102028 028 020 000 05
020430 1744N 08459W 6967 03179 //// +086 //// 104028 028 020 000 01
020500 1746N 08459W 6966 03182 //// +086 //// 103027 028 021 001 05
020530 1748N 08500W 6969 03177 //// +080 //// 103026 027 019 002 01
020600 1749N 08500W 6965 03181 //// +080 //// 105027 027 018 002 05
020630 1751N 08500W 6781 03399 //// +068 //// 095026 026 /// /// 05
020700 1753N 08501W 6555 03679 //// +063 //// 084028 028 /// /// 05
020730 1755N 08501W 6330 03966 //// +047 //// 084028 030 /// /// 05
020800 1756N 08501W 6109 04257 //// +034 //// 082024 028 /// /// 05
020830 1758N 08501W 5906 04549 //// +021 //// 095021 022 /// /// 05
020900 1800N 08501W 5722 04806 //// +003 //// 098016 017 /// /// 05
020930 1802N 08502W 5542 05065 //// -011 //// 089017 018 /// /// 05
021000 1804N 08502W 5367 05321 0274 -019 //// 096021 024 /// /// 05
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Next flight takes off at 4:30am eastern.

[Macrocane]

It's over now right? They are flying very high now.

[RL3AO]

Yeah

[cycloneye]

It's over now right? They are flying very high now.

Yes,mission is over.

[Macrocane]

I think RECON supports an intensity of 50 kt, we're going to know in 30 minutes or so.

[supercane]

[ozonepete]

I really think Hurricane Watches/Warnings should be posted at 11pm...

Another Edit: Dropsonde report that just came in measured 48 knot winds at the surface, which was dropped in "maximum wind band."

Wouldn't be surprised at all if they post Hurricane Watches.

[GCANE]

Wow, that is a huge hot-tower very close to the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 191845.jpg

I figured this would happen after the sun set and the upper troposphere started cooling.

I would say RI is just a few hours away.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just got back from the field for the weekend and see a nice TS sitting over very warm waters. My other predictions with systems usually missed their mark due to the fact that not everything was "perfect" or nearly perfect for RI. In this case, though, I see nothing but land interaction to counteract RI, and it seems it may even briefly help Harvey. The land interaction, I believe, helped tighten the core down to almost a pinpoint, and a burst of convection flared overhead. My indicator appeared around 2000 UTC (4 pm EDT) and right around 00 UTC (8 pm EDT) it got more pronounced (as Harvey passed the edge of the coastline). Obviously with this recon flight, pressure was dropping steadily and the winds have been increasing (5 pm advisory was 40 knots, and a dropsonde just measured 48 knots on the surface in the "maximum wind band", so an increase of 10 knots roughly in about 5 hours).

I believe that is just the beginning, associated with the weaker version of the indicator, and the real ramping up is about to begin. Over the next 4 hours or so, Harvey will work on closing off it's eyewall, then around 2 am or 3 am, take off for a little bit. The only issue is that it is very close to land, so that will limit the RI. 25 knots is likely (just shy of the definition of "RI"), 30 knots to 35 knots certainly possible. In short, we'll most likely be looking at our first hurricane by 12 pm tomorrow (in my opinion), unless land can force a disruption of the inner core, which it does not seem to be doing thus far.

Final intensity by 12 pm tomorrow? 75 to 85 knots. Hoping for 55 or less, as always, but this one just has excellent conditions and a very tight inner core, along with DMAX, hot SST's, and a nice ball of convection.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[NDG]

I really think Hurricane Watches/Warnings should be posted at 11pm...

Another Edit: Dropsonde report that just came in measured 48 knot winds at the surface, which was dropped in "maximum wind band."

I agree.

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest microwave:

Uh-oh. Looks like a possible eyewall is half-way built now. Quickly making progress tonight. These small systems can ramp up so fast...

[ozonepete]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just got back from the field for the weekend and see a nice TS sitting over very warm waters. My other predictions with systems usually missed their mark due to the fact that not everything was "perfect" or nearly perfect for RI. In this case, though, I see nothing but land interaction to counteract RI, and it seems it may even briefly help Harvey. The land interaction, I believe, helped tighten the core down to almost a pinpoint, and a burst of convection flared overhead. My indicator appeared around 2000 UTC (4 pm EDT) and right around 00 UTC (8 pm EDT) it got more pronounced (as Harvey passed the edge of the coastline). Obviously with this recon flight, pressure was dropping steadily and the winds have been increasing (5 pm advisory was 40 knots, and a dropsonde just measured 48 knots on the surface in the "maximum wind band", so an increase of 10 knots roughly in about 5 hours).

I believe that is just the beginning, associated with the weaker version of the indicator, and the real ramping up is about to begin. Over the next 4 hours or so, Harvey will work on closing off it's eyewall, then around 2 am or 3 am, take off for a little bit. The only issue is that it is very close to land, so that will limit the RI. 25 knots is likely (just shy of the definition of "RI"), 30 knots to 35 knots certainly possible. In short, we'll most likely be looking at our first hurricane by 12 pm tomorrow (in my opinion), unless land can force a disruption of the inner core, which it does not seem to be doing thus far.

Final intensity by 12 pm tomorrow? 75 to 85 knots. Hoping for 55 or less, as always, but this one just has excellent conditions and a very tight inner core, along with DMAX, hot SST's, and a nice ball of convection.

Think you have summed it up really well. Not good for Belize.

[Macrocane]

That microwave that supercane posted show us that the little core is working it's way to become an eyewall, IMO it just needs to move a little more west so it will be able to get more inflow from the south.

[ozonepete]

That microwave that supercane posted show us that the little core is working it's way to become an eyewall, IMO it just needs to move a little more west so it will be able to get more inflow from the south.

And we know it will. Very little doubt this will be our first hurricane of 2011.