ATL: IRENE - Models

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Vortex
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#1121 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

H+132 entering FL straights...looks like a possible hit on SE FL



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1122 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

132 hours coming off Cuba into FL Straits.
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Re: Re:

#1123 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:24 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
gatorcane wrote:it's slightly more east on this run by day 4-5...but not by much from the 18Z...gonna be a close call if it takes the trough north or not....


oh its taking it this run


Looks very reluctant to go into the weakness :eek:
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Re: Re:

#1124 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
Kory wrote:The GFS is not wanting to move the death ridge over Texas as fast as it has been.


Sadly it has been the theme this summer with long range guidance in showing the ridge braking down but never verifying.......but its going to have to give up sometime.. :cry:


Indeed, I still clearly recall how the Death Ridge killed TS Don, now that was nearly unbelievable. :double:
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#1125 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

H+138 heading over FL straights and intensifying...SE of Miami,,

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1126 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:25 pm

Image

Dangerous area for intensification
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#1127 Postby Kory » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Moving NNW into the weakness and ridge still isn't moving...
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#1128 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

So far 0zGFS is very close to the 12zECMWF in regards to track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1129 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Looks like it's gonna run up the east coast this run...so much for getting some consistency.
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#1130 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

Haha.. Flip-flop. Crazy
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#1131 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:26 pm

A track 50 miles farther NE or SW of the 00Z would have the circulation offshore of Cuba, which would make a big difference in intensity. This is gunna be one hard storm to forecast...
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#1132 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Hmmm so between hours 114 and 132 it goes from 997MB to 993MB over the high mountains of Cuba....I don't think so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1133 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Image
144 hrs
Getting stronger heading for Miami. :eek:
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1134 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

H+144 Intensifying, about to make landfall over SFL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1135 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 pm

Image

:eek:
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#1136 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 pm

H+150 bombing out over SFL...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal150.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1137 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 pm

Image

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1138 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

CMC, GFDL then the EURO on tap for tonight still
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1139 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

Well the good thing is, the old saying is generally true, that when it's gonna come to your house in east central Florida according to the models at first glance, it generally ends up going somewhere else. :flag:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1140 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 pm

Image :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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