ATL: IRENE - Models

[ROCK]

72hr EURO- big mess....

[ROCK]

not far off the CMC or GFDL runs....

[ROCK]

96...not much to look at yet...

[Hurricaneman]

looks better than last nights run though, looks to be south of Cuba by about 25 miles

[ROCK]

its a broad low and its not really all that consolidated yet.....

there we go

120hr

[SFLcane]

Thus far looks like the 12z run.

[ROCK]

12Z 120hr




0z 96hr

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 200621
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0621 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110820 0600 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110820  0600   110820  1800   110821  0600   110821  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  53.0W   15.1N  56.4W   15.9N  59.6W   17.1N  62.8W
BAMD    14.3N  53.0W   15.0N  56.1W   15.7N  59.1W   16.5N  62.0W
BAMM    14.3N  53.0W   15.0N  56.2W   15.9N  59.4W   16.9N  62.4W
LBAR    14.3N  53.0W   14.9N  56.3W   15.6N  59.7W   16.2N  63.0W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          52KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110822  0600   110823  0600   110824  0600   110825  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  66.0W   20.0N  72.2W   20.7N  77.3W   20.5N  80.4W
BAMD    17.2N  64.7W   18.9N  69.4W   21.2N  73.0W   24.2N  76.9W
BAMM    17.8N  65.3W   19.6N  70.9W   21.0N  75.3W   22.2N  78.9W
LBAR    16.7N  66.2W   17.4N  71.7W   19.5N  75.8W   21.7N  78.7W
SHIP        64KTS          82KTS          87KTS          89KTS
DSHP        64KTS          58KTS          59KTS          60KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  53.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  49.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  45.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN

[South Texas Storms]

Rock have you given up hope that this will bring us some rain?

[SFLcane]

Looks like another SFL landfall coming...144hrs

[gatorcane]

Looks like it might be headed for South Florida again on the 00z Euro

That would be three runs in a row.

[ROCK]

Rock have you given up hope that this will bring us some rain?

hope? I dont hope for a storm of this potential....but I do hope the ridge retreats this run..

[ROCK]

stait runner IMO....the ridge is still there compared to the 12Z.....

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the Euro might agree with the GFS

[gatorcane]

Landfall South Florida again, nearly identical to the 12z

[TwisterFanatic]

Appears we might have some consensus, which means tomorrow we'll have a spread from Mexico to Greenland.

[SFLcane]

Yep...SFL

[Scorpion]

Looks like things are lining up towards that solution. I don't see anything happening west of the Peninsula.

[SFLcane]

This run is also faster with the storm

[ROCK]

hard to argue against the mighty EURO at 165hr....that is medium range for it...