ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

The consensus between the GFS and ECMWF of a strong hurricane into South Florida is quite startling. It has my attention needless to say. Timeframe now about 6 to 7 days.

[SFLcane]

The consensus between the GFS and ECMWF of a strong hurricane into South Florida is quite startling. It has my attention needless to say,

Both models keep it away from haiti also.

[AdamFirst]

Why am I still awake?

[WeatherEmperor]

Why am I still awake?

I know me too! lol. But may it's because both the GFS and EURO show a hurricane in our area in about 6-7 days

[SFLcane]

Wow up the entire spine of florida...

[Scorpion]

Rare to get the same solution from both the GFS and Euro

[Turtle]

If the ridge retreats, I hope the hurricane will come here. Otherwise I want the ridge to stay and break some huge records!

[blp]

Yep...SFL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP168.gif

On that image I wonder if the other tropical system in the mid atlantic (I guess 99L) has anything to do with making the HIGH weaker by punching into it.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like things are lining up towards that solution. I don't see anything happening west of the Peninsula.

That's a relief! Glad Alabama is out of the cross-hairs now as we sure didn't need another bad storm this year. Maybe it will keep trending on eastward and avoid the US entirely now.

[WeatherEmperor]

@SFLcane,

That is almost the exact same scenario that the 00Z GFS shows. If you get both the GFS and EURO to agree we may have something to worry about. If they both continue to show this by Sunday, then it will totally have my attention. Still time for them to shift so we will see. Interesting times ahead for sure.

[maxintensity]

If it takes the track of the ecmwf and gfs you can forget cat 3, 4, or 5 as it approaches the US. I would be shocked if it were stronger than 105mph for the florida landfall on those tracks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

Rare to get the same solution from both the GFS and Euro

Indeed... The GFS still has some more swings to work out but having the EURO on board for a few runs now is a little concerning.

[StarmanHDB]

A quick question on models (and I hope this isn't "Off Topic")....

Obviously, the various wx forecasting models are the result of many years of painstaking research based on many years of mounds of collected data regarding (in this case) the life cycles of countless tropical systems. While I know that science definitely plays the key role in the story behind wx models, what impact do the scientists themselves play in wx modeling? The old adage of "garbage in, garbage out" comes to mind. No, I'm not stating that wx modeling is garbage; on the contrary, I'm 100 percent certain that severe storm models have helped save countless lives. What I am saying is that although science is supposed to be exact (well, I'm not so sure about atmospheric sciences--way too many variables involved) and unbiased, meteorologists, physicists, and atmospheric scientists are imperfect humans whose lives are filled with biases, agendas, investors, and bosses. All this said, which of the tropical wx forecasting models are the considered the most conservative, the most liberal, appear traditionally moderate, and are recognized as the most accurate in both long-range and short-range forecasting AND WHY? Again, please forgive me if I'm "Off Topic", but the 'why' is something I've pondered for some time and with this potential monster beating on our front door, now's as good as time as any to run this by a very knowledgeable crowd.

[SFLcane]

If it takes the track of the ecmwf and gfs you can forget cat 3, 4, or 5 as it approaches the US. I would be shocked if it were stronger than 105mph for the florida landfall on those tracks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

All you need is 60 to loose power.

[blp]

If it takes the track of the ecmwf and gfs you can forget cat 3, 4, or 5 as it approaches the US. I would be shocked if it were stronger than 105mph for the florida landfall on those tracks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

All you need is 60 to loose power.

Yes, I will never take a category 1 lightly again after Katrina. I thought it was nothing to worry about and did not put up any shutters and I had to hold up my front door which nearly came in.

[Scorpion]

If it takes the track of the ecmwf and gfs you can forget cat 3, 4, or 5 as it approaches the US. I would be shocked if it were stronger than 105mph for the florida landfall on those tracks.

Disagree.. it has a very large circulation that would not get too disrupted. Both models show it gaining tremendous strength in the Straits, they must see excellent upper level conditions. Sure it can easily not amount to anything but when global models continuously and have continuously been stressing on a powerful hurricane in our general vicinity for the past 5 days then its hard not to ignore them.

[blp]

Have you guys noticed how the models thread is twice as large as the discussion thread? That has a lot to do with how consistent the models have been at showing development at such a long range. It is really quite remarkable. I suspect the discussion thread will catch up starting tomorrow.

[fci]

The consensus between the GFS and ECMWF of a strong hurricane into South Florida is quite startling. It has my attention needless to say,

Both models keep it away from haiti also.

Where do they bring it in from; north of Hispanola?

[TBCaneFreak]

Good morning all. First time poster, viewer for years...Had to get involved here, hard to turn a blind eye to some 16 out of last 20 model funs of a hurricane to Florida..

[AdamFirst]

Good morning all. First time poster, viewer for years...Had to get involved here, hard to turn a blind eye to some 16 out of last 20 model funs of a hurricane to Florida..

Good morning...up with the rest of us tropical weather insomniacs? :p

It is quite intriguing. The models have been showing the same thing for the past three-four days, give or take a hundred mile swing in direction.