ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

The northeastern gulf gets hit once every 7-8 years so our due date doesn't come until 2012 or 2013 and since this region got hits in 2004 and 2005. Its not our time yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That stat is based on yearly average of systems making landfall in the northeastern gulf. I really don't think people should rely on it all the time. And also, whether an area gets hit once every 7-8 years based on statistics, it doesn't imply that it will happen exactly as it is. Say your area was "unexpectedly" hit by two storms within that 7 or 8-year range, it could be that the next storm to come will hit double that range.

Ok Ok gothcha-but no worse than using psychic powers that another poster is apparently using (nothing wrong with that-its his belief) but at least mine has scientific backup. lol js

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 52W
FROM 10N-18N WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER
PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

First Visible

[Nimbus]

Convection is really blossoming this morning up near 15.5N. Couldn't tell what is going on at the surface from the IR imagery but there is some inflow action southeast of the convection feeding up into it. When is recon scheduled? If the storm is starting to get steered WNW that would mean the gulf is less likely to see Irene.

[KWT]

Hmm presentation has gone a little, the MLC has lost its impressiveness overnight I see. Convection still flaring up though so if it holds circulation should form somewhere close to 15-15.5N

[HUC]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Hello all:VISIBLE OF 97l IN THIS EARLY MORNING.

[KWT]

Actually looking at that wind ob any circulation must be south of 15N based on that east wind there...

[HUC]

i THINK SO NEAR 14n OR SO??? wait for specialists to says...

[KWT]

Certainly backs up the idea that the MLC didn't produce anything even close to a low level circulation, wind direction is a total 180 from what you'd be wanting to see if there was a circulation near the convection.

[cycloneye]

Certainly backs up the idea that the MLC didn't produce anything even close to a low level circulation, wind direction is a total 180 from what you'd be wanting to see if there was a circulation near the convection.

Also,is starting to move a little more to the westnorthwest maybe 285.

[Gustywind]

i THINK SO NEAR 14n OR SO??? wait for specialists to says...

You may be right HUC as the NHC ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS put it near 14N... We will have more infos later.
000
FZNT23 KNHC 200918 CCA
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-201530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

1007 MB LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N53W. THE LOW WILL REACH
NEAR 15N58W BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN MOVE TO 16N60W SAT NIGHT...NEAR 17N63W SUN AFTERNOON...NEAR PUERTO RICO SUN NIGHT...THEN ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MON.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST AND
WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY...THEN TRACK NEAR THE LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE RECEDING
TUTT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE (DISTURBANCE). THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND NHC HAS GIVEN IT A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST AND PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ITS EXACT TRACK...HOW SOON IT DEVELOPS OR NOT...AND
EXACTLY WHAT THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS WHEN IT PASSES BY...
REMAIN UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

IRRESPECTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL RECEIVE AN INCREASE IN WINDS...SEAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE "POTENTIAL" FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
THESE...POSSIBLY INCLUDING FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...LOCALIZED
COASTAL FLOODING AND DOWNED TREES.

THEREFORE...ALL LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ BTWN 20/18-20Z. THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 20/12Z BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 79 / 20 70 70 70
STT 90 81 89 80 / 40 70 90 90

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

WED-FRI...THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARRIBEAN
NEAR 55W LONGITUDE. MODELS FORECAST IT TO BE IN VICINITY OF CUBA
NEXT THURS WITH A TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH FL BY NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT HPC DAY 7 POSITION HAS IT NEAR THE WESTERN KEYS AS
A RECURVING SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME EFFECTS ON ECFL.

Starting to think a track over PR and northern Hispaniola and maybe ultimately skirting the N coast is looking more possible. The HPC changed it's 7 day position from W Cuba to W Keys. Looking at the satellite this morning, 97L is looking much better, IMO we see a TD or TS Irene when recon goes.

[cycloneye]

The plane departs at 12:15 PM EDT from St Croix.

[Caribwxgirl]

First Visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Its really impressive looking...I notice ur area may be in for it if it develops please be safe.

[TBCaneFreak]

Yea really nice baby pictures...we're just not sure if it'll grow up to be a killer..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

8 AM TWO

80%

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED
ALONG 53W FROM 11N-18N WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
11N-18N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 17
KT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[GCANE]

Should start to feel some shear from the TUTT late this afternoon.

Most likely this will fire some MCS's as it enters the east Carib.

I dont' expect a lot of organization then until it gets south of PR.

At that time the current TUTT should have disspiated and another form direct east and farther away.

That should kick in a strong outflow channel and 97L most likely will ramp up then.

[jedsshed]

Any guesses on how much rain the Northern Leewards will get from 97L?