ATL: IRENE - Models

[AtlanticWind]

So far this GFS run about the same

[Kory]

Looking at the GFS, does anyone else notice the high pressure over the mid Atlantic states. What it there past runs?

[TBCaneFreak]

So far this GFS run about the same

Although its been great for consistancy sake, the models have grown quite boring, haven't they...Its like staying up till 3am to watch a superbowl, and its a repeat of Superbowl 10 over and over

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at the GFS, does anyone else notice the high pressure over the mid Atlantic states. What it there past runs?

Yes

[TBCaneFreak]

Im thinking a little further west this run, following the other model shift west. Looks like weekness and storm will meet in eastern GOM...

[Kory]

Hmm...now seems to be moving due west over Cuba on this run. The trough doesn't look at deep as it was on the 00z and 06z runs.

[storm4u]

actually looks like its going to be east

Im thinking a little further west this run, following the other model shift west. Looks like weekness and storm will meet in eastern GOM...

[USTropics]

At 120 hours, looking like a south Florida/east coast of Florida landfall

[gatorcane]

Big 500mb weakness right over peninsula Florida at 108 hours on GFS.

How can it miss that

[Ivanhater]

Ridging does build in stronger this run...

[WeatherEmperor]

At 132hr, GFS has it in the FL Straights moving slowly North...

[AtlanticWind]

I think this system is more likely to miss S.Fla to the east than the west. IMO

[TBCaneFreak]

Big 500mb weakness right over peninsula Florida at 108 hours on GFS.

How can it miss that

I switched to 500 ml ULgraphic..I see that too....lets see how she reacts to that

[Ivanhater]

Ridging is much stronger this run compared to the same time on the 06 run..could be a trend down the road


12z



06z

[WeatherEmperor]

138hr: hits extreme south florida at 996mb. Still moving slowly north..

[gatorcane]

Looks like a rapidly intensifying system moving very slowly north towards South Florida at 132 hours.

[wxman57]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

[Ivanhater]

Yep..trough lifts out much faster with ridging building in faster behind the trough this run...this run may still show the turn but I am more concerned with the upper dynamic trend

[SouthDadeFish]

Could the GFS be any more consistent?

[TBCaneFreak]

At hour 126 already past Miami so looks like another spinal tap possible...