ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Aric, I see the 15.8 but not the 61.8 part of it.

well that would be tomorrows position I believe. the 61.8 W point is if the llc was forming farther south than to get all the way up to 15.8 and 61.8 by tomorrow would be a NW motion..

This was from yesterdays TCPOD for todays mission.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 20/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
       C. 20/1615Z
       D. 15.3N 57.5W
       E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



spot on then!!!!!

[HUC]

Meteo Guadeloupe put a center near 13,8N 58W and an Orange alert for our territories.
The weather is overcast( cirrostratus and alto stratus ) with Cb clouds, passing rain and strong thunder...Things are beginin folks...Stay tunes and be prepared!

[cycloneye]

Ok good Dave.

I can't do it as I have to go out so who volunteers to post the data?

[srainhoutx]

Hey, someone has to inject some other thoughts here - but be careful what you post, since many non-weather folks also visit this site...

As for the system, as others said it needs to slow down before it can develop, and I agree that land interaction might be the key, per previous systems that were also thought to develop but didn't due to their track over the larger islands...

Frank

Nice edit there Frank. I'm sure that enough of that information is being spread about by other sources and if that were the case, we should close all weather boards based on speculation by weather enthusiasts. What an evil world we live in.

[wxman57]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

[indian]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

if it stays weak will it stay on a westerly path instead of turning north?

[psyclone]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

that would be nice. a heat-busting tropical storm would be an enjoyable deviation from the usual summer weather should it trend toward florida.

[Aric Dunn]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

if it stays weak will it stay on a westerly path instead of turning north?

well for the most part. but it is already farther north than most of the models are initializing it. its going have a hard time missing hispaniola if it stays weak.

[gatorcane]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

that would be nice. a heat-busting tropical storm would be an enjoyable deviation from the usual summer weather should it trend toward florida.

To be fair, the GFS holds off on development until the eastern Caribbean. I have not seen the GFS so insistent on a forecast in a while plus the ECMWF and FIM guidance is nearly identical run after run after run. Down to about 6 days now on a potential South Florida impact....models are more reliable within a 6 day timeframe so definitely watching this one. We are not in GFS fantasy land any longer.

[Dave]

Ok the Harvey mission is over...going to make a mt dew run then will be back on hdobs or whatever's needed here for 97L.

Cycloneye we're covered for 97L now I think....grabbed someone out of the audience.

[Gustywind]

Meteo Guadeloupe put a center near 13,8N 58W and an Orange alert for our territories.
The weather is overcast( cirrostratus and alto stratus ) with Cb clouds, passing rain and strong thunder...Things are beginin folks...Stay tunes and be prepared!

Thanks for you report HUC . The same here in my locality. Looking at the radar of Meteo-France squalls lines are not so far from our island! Let's continue to monitor carefully 97L approaching pretty closely now...

[robbielyn]

so what exactly would prevent this thing from going nne after crossing cuba like it has done many times before?

[supercane]

Can help out if you need it, Dave.

[clfenwi]

I can post the obs.

[Dave]

Hurakan's got graphics & I've got the hdobs for awhile...just stick around I'm sure both of us will be blind before the end of it.

[madinina]

Hi Gustywind,
Same weather in Martinique, but in yellow alert.
I hope it'll be not the same like for Emily...

[Gustywind]

97L becoming better organized and growing in size

[Gustywind]

Hi Gustywind,
Same weather in Martinique, but in yellow alert.
I hope it'll be not the same like for Emily...

Ok glad to see you my friend. You're right we don't want to have an Emily remake, so we should continue to be extremely vigilant, we never know...

[Dave]

Just a note, if 97L turns like the models are suggesting there will be mulitple flights daily & nightly into it so we will need you all to help out at various times. No one person can do it all...it takes all of us to cover these missions on a round the clock basis.

[chris_fit]

Wasn't it supposed to take off around 12:15? Don't see any obs yet.