ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[storm4u]

seems like its about to intensify

[LaBreeze]

No, it looks like anyone from TX/LA to NC should watch this one...still way too early.

Oh, I will always keep my attention on the movement of this, but it just seemed like it was more east - maybe it's just a gut feeling

[deltadog03]

Thank goodness for buoys....That wind shift that recon found lines up pretty well with some obs down there. This sucker has the "LOOK"....

[calmbeforestorm1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I think something might be happening at around 15.5 and 57.0. Deeper convection is forming and there is the beginning of a turning there. Also, this position would be right in the middle of the impressively growing moisture envelope that is evidenced by this latest WV loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

I really don't think this system is that far away from developing and I think it will be quite large and impressive when it does.

[Dave]

789
URNT15 KNHC 202003
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 20 20110820
195330 1424N 05517W 9594 00431 0080 +233 +093 133024 025 026 002 00
195400 1425N 05518W 9597 00429 0080 +232 +094 133026 027 027 001 00
195430 1427N 05519W 9593 00432 0081 +231 +093 131026 027 025 002 00
195500 1429N 05521W 9595 00430 0080 +231 +093 131025 027 027 001 00
195530 1430N 05522W 9593 00432 0081 +230 +093 129026 026 025 003 00
195600 1432N 05523W 9597 00427 0079 +234 +092 130027 028 024 001 00
195630 1434N 05525W 9593 00432 0079 +235 +092 131028 029 026 002 00
195700 1435N 05526W 9593 00431 0078 +235 +092 130030 030 027 001 00
195730 1437N 05527W 9593 00431 0077 +235 +093 129031 031 027 002 00
195800 1439N 05529W 9594 00429 0077 +235 +094 130032 032 028 001 00
195830 1441N 05530W 9595 00429 0078 +231 +094 128031 032 027 002 00
195900 1442N 05532W 9593 00430 0078 +233 +094 128031 032 028 002 00
195930 1444N 05533W 9594 00429 0078 +224 +095 126031 032 031 001 00
200000 1446N 05534W 9596 00428 0078 +223 +093 121028 030 031 004 00
200030 1447N 05536W 9589 00432 0078 +229 +091 120028 029 029 005 00
200100 1449N 05537W 9594 00429 0078 +230 +092 121029 030 029 002 00
200130 1451N 05538W 9595 00427 0078 +230 +093 119029 030 030 001 00
200200 1452N 05540W 9592 00431 0078 +231 +093 121030 031 029 002 00
200230 1454N 05541W 9594 00430 0079 +231 +094 120031 031 030 003 00
200300 1456N 05543W 9594 00430 0079 +230 +095 118030 031 030 002 00
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if it only hits Florida(if it goes there) as a tropical storm, the large size of it can create some very torrential and flooding rains.....

[TwisterFanatic]

Although there is not a well defined LLC, it is pretty beautiful:

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7272/204ie.jpg

That certainly has the look of a monster in the making.

[madinina]

South of Martinique : After rain, storm and wind,now it's very quiet... too quiet..
But we are only in yellow alert.

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

Although there is not a well defined LLC, it is pretty beautiful:

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7272/204ie.jpg

That certainly has the look of a monster in the making.

I must admit that this system is already quickly expanding in size. Unfortunately, this does has to potential to be a rather potent and dangerous tropical cyclone.

[storm4u]

kind of scary thinking about what might be unfolding.. Everyone on the gulf and east coast should be getting ready for this just in case.. better safe then sorry

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is the IR image. Not too shabby either. Some nice convection going off just North of the wind shift.

[ozonepete]

looks like a christmas wreath.

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS charts as of 18Z depict an anticylone over 97L, some nice convergence/divergence going on as well. I don't think d-min will it kill it this time. There does some to be a decent amount of dry air around the system, but I doubt it will be too harmful due to 97L's massive moisture envelope.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi folks, I'm sorry but this is more than just an open wave. Just looking at the SAT images, it has that "LOOK" its very close to becoming a depression. Even strong tropical waves don't look like this. It continues to get better organized and it is gaining lattitude also. It's just a technicality at this point to find a "closed surface circulation," why not just upgrade it given the trends....?

No way it takes a couple of days to get named, going to be sooner than that. I say 100% by next NHC advisory.

[Dave]

591
URNT15 KNHC 202013
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 21 20110820
200330 1457N 05544W 9593 00430 0078 +230 +096 118030 031 028 002 00
200400 1459N 05545W 9596 00429 0078 +230 +096 117030 030 028 003 00
200430 1501N 05547W 9596 00427 0078 +231 +096 117031 033 029 003 00
200500 1503N 05548W 9594 00430 0079 +230 +096 115032 032 030 000 00
200530 1504N 05549W 9592 00433 0079 +231 +095 115033 034 028 003 00
200600 1506N 05551W 9594 00429 0078 +232 +095 115035 035 027 003 00
200630 1508N 05552W 9595 00429 0079 +230 +093 114034 034 028 002 00
200700 1509N 05554W 9593 00432 0079 +233 +093 117035 035 029 002 00
200730 1511N 05555W 9605 00418 0079 +228 +093 113035 035 030 003 00
200800 1513N 05556W 9595 00427 0078 +230 +090 111035 035 029 001 03
200830 1514N 05557W 9590 00431 0077 +230 +089 112034 035 030 002 00
200900 1516N 05559W 9594 00428 0077 +229 +089 110033 034 031 003 00
200930 1517N 05600W 9593 00428 0076 +229 +088 107033 034 032 002 00
201000 1519N 05601W 9593 00428 0076 +227 +087 104033 034 033 003 00
201030 1520N 05602W 9597 00423 0075 +227 +087 106036 037 033 005 00
201100 1522N 05604W 9592 00430 0076 +227 +086 107036 036 034 003 00
201130 1523N 05605W 9590 00430 0077 +223 +086 103036 037 035 005 00
201200 1525N 05606W 9592 00429 0076 +225 +085 102039 041 033 002 00
201230 1527N 05607W 9597 00425 0076 +226 +083 102038 040 034 002 00
201300 1528N 05609W 9608 00414 0077 +221 +083 103039 040 035 003 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

wow recon finding lots of TS winds.. 40kts FL and 35kt sfmr

[Ivanhater]

Hi folks, I'm sorry but this is more than just an open wave. Just looking at the SAT images, it has that "LOOK" its very close to becoming a depression. Even strong tropical waves don't look like this. It continues to get better organized and it is gaining lattitude also.

No way it takes a couple of days to get named, going to be sooner than that. I say 100% by next NHC advisory.

This exact time yesterday people were saying the same thing...Recon is confirming this is still an open wave.

[Recurve]

I can't remember seeing anything with such a robust visible cloud presentation, at least this early in its development, in a long time.

[Expresses undefined unease].

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon just found 41 knot flight level winds. When upgraded it will probably go straight to TS Irene.