ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Wide view....HUGE!

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Hi folks, I'm sorry but this is more than just an open wave. Just looking at the SAT images, it has that "LOOK" its very close to becoming a depression. Even strong tropical waves don't look like this. It continues to get better organized and it is gaining lattitude also.

No way it takes a couple of days to get named, going to be sooner than that. I say 100% by next NHC advisory.

This exact time yesterday people were saying the same thing...Recon is confirming this is still an open wave.

No I didn't say it was a depression yesterday

Anyway, still leaning towards the center consolidating around 15N or more north. It tried yesterday but failed, but trying again today it looks like.

You got to think it will form there sooner or later.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah so far where they have been flying has good wind profile ... just lacking the west winds I believe.

[Ivanhater]

Hi folks, I'm sorry but this is more than just an open wave. Just looking at the SAT images, it has that "LOOK" its very close to becoming a depression. Even strong tropical waves don't look like this. It continues to get better organized and it is gaining lattitude also.

No way it takes a couple of days to get named, going to be sooner than that. I say 100% by next NHC advisory.

This exact time yesterday people were saying the same thing...Recon is confirming this is still an open wave.

No I didn't say it was a depression yesterday

Anyway, still leaning towards the center consolidating around 15N or more north. It tried yesterday but failed, but trying again today it looks like.

You got to think it will form there sooner or later.

Anything trying to close off is below 15 north but once it does close off..perhaps tomorrow or Monday...around 15 north looks like a good bet

[northjaxpro]

Recon just found 41 knot flight level winds. When upgraded it will probably go straight to TS Irene.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

[brunota2003]

41 knots flight level, plenty of uncontaminated 30 to 35 knot readings by the SFMR. Recon setting up for a NE to SW pass through the wind shift it appears, just dropped a RECCO labeled NE Entry Point.

[AdamFirst]

Tropical Swirl Irene. This is just like Emily's development, only super size it.

[SouthDadeFish]

97L's size and structure reminds me a lot of Tomas last year:

[cycloneye]

Yes Aric

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[storm4u]

they should upgrade just so people pay close attention and know its out there the average person has no idea what could be coming to them within a week

[Brent]

Although there is not a well defined LLC, it is pretty beautiful:

WOW is all I can say to that one.

[ozonepete]

You can see it still has multiple LLCs rotating around each other around 15 to 16N and roughly 57 to 58W. I'm pretty sure the final LLC will wind up at around 16 or so. The easternmost LLC is already crossing 15.

[brunota2003]

New RECCO decoded...looks like they are setting up to drop to the SW towards the wind shift earlier:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 20:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 20:08Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.2N 56.0W
Location: 283 miles (455 km) to the ENE (59°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 460 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 9°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 28 knots (~ 32.2mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

NE entry point

[TwisterFanatic]

wow recon finding lots of TS winds.. 40kts FL and 35kt sfmr

Wow.. That's surprising

[SkeetoBite]

Wow, that's big. Looks like it already has some twist and shout to it, even though it's still open. Yikes.

Edit: I don't recall seeing this many people saying "wow" this early in any developing system... lol.

[Migle]

they should upgrade just so people pay close attention and know its out there the average person has no idea what could be coming to them within a week

If they can't find a LLC, they won't upgrade it just "because".

[storm4u]

I know they wont but they should to let people know thats all im saying

they should upgrade just so people pay close attention and know its out there the average person has no idea what could be coming to them within a week

If they can't find a LLC, they won't upgrade it just "because".

[gatorcane]

Wow, that's big. Looks like it already has some twist and shout to it, even though it's still open. Yikes.

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It's very large, but not suprising because it was a very large wave out in the Atlantic several days ago spanning nearly 700 miles.

Looking like it is on a WNW heading, maybe the LLC is trying to form at 15N, 57W under the new deep convection burst I am seeing.

Seem like it is heading right for Puerto Rico then Hispaniola after that.

[CrazyC83]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Irene.