ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

846
URNT15 KNHC 202023
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 22 20110820
201330 1530N 05610W 9585 00433 0074 +226 +083 103040 042 036 000 00
201400 1531N 05611W 9599 00421 0075 +227 +082 099040 042 035 002 00
201430 1532N 05612W 9587 00433 0075 +221 +083 100041 041 036 003 00
201500 1534N 05613W 9594 00426 0074 +227 +081 099043 046 037 003 03
201530 1535N 05615W 9597 00423 0073 +228 +081 091044 047 038 004 00
201600 1537N 05616W 9590 00428 0075 +218 +082 092041 043 038 008 00
201630 1538N 05617W 9595 00425 0075 +224 +081 092039 040 036 006 00
201700 1539N 05618W 9593 00427 0074 +229 +080 094041 043 036 004 00
201730 1541N 05619W 9593 00428 0075 +227 +079 092041 042 036 003 00
201800 1542N 05620W 9589 00432 0075 +226 +079 091042 043 038 005 03
201830 1543N 05621W 9597 00422 0074 +225 +080 094042 044 037 005 00
201900 1545N 05622W 9592 00428 0074 +226 +079 093042 042 036 003 00
201930 1546N 05624W 9589 00428 0073 +227 +079 093043 044 036 004 00
202000 1548N 05625W 9593 00425 0073 +227 +079 093043 043 038 004 03
202030 1549N 05626W 9593 00425 0074 +226 +079 088041 043 /// /// 03
202100 1548N 05628W 9594 00423 0073 +224 +079 087039 040 040 004 03
202130 1546N 05629W 9594 00425 0073 +222 +078 087040 041 037 007 00
202200 1545N 05630W 9596 00422 0071 +224 +078 089040 041 040 009 00
202230 1544N 05632W 9591 00424 0069 +226 +077 087039 040 040 011 00
202300 1543N 05633W 9593 00420 0070 +213 +077 085038 040 044 012 00
$$
;

47 flt 44 sfmr all clear

[Aric Dunn]

47kt FL winds now..

[CrazyC83]

Latest Recon supports 45 kt. But is there an LLC? Otherwise it is just a low with strong winds.

[calmbeforestorm1]

97L's size and structure reminds me a lot of Tomas last year:

I don't see any way this will consolidate below 15.0 as some have suggested.

[tolakram]

here we go

[brunota2003]

Here we go...tighten your seat belts ladies and gents, they are now heading SW toward the wind shift.

[madinina]

South of Martinique : It's very quite here, nothing move.
Weather report here said it's just rain. Impact: weak to moderate.
What do you think about that? It's ok?

[KWT]

Wow i'm quite surprised winds are that high!

Still no doubt system is probably of TS strength, 35kts invest...for now!

[Dave]

CORRECTED RECCO
000
URNT11 KNHC 202025 CCA
97779 20224 70157 56518 04600 08036 22089 /0007
40940
RMK AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 05 CCA
SWS = 40 KTS
NE entry point
;

[cpdaman]

wow beautiful to watch unfold.

my money (whose value is questionable lol) says 15/ 57.3 'ish

[brunota2003]

Corrected decoded RECCO:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 20:25Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 20:22Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.7N 56.5W
Location: 276 miles (443 km) to the NE (49°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 460 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 36 knots (From the E at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 90° at 40 knots (From the E at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

NE entry point

[Recurve]

Just got to have a closed low before NHC declares it. No matter how pretty the clouds are. Has the winds to support a TS.

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing that's impressive today is that the convection that was there this morning is still there and there are even indications of a couple of hot towers getting going.

[brunota2003]

Recon's corrected RECCO Ob stated surface winds (likely by SFMR) 40 knots.

[KWT]

Am I the only one who thinks it looks quite odd?

Its a big ole lump thats for sure!

[Hurricaneman]

If they find west winds, this is a 45mph tropical storm

[ConvergenceZone]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

[SFLcane]

Only a matter of time with those winds....Just needs a defind circulation.

[psyclone]

it looks like one of those big west pac systems. very impressive to watch come together.

[madinina]

South of Martinique : It's very quite here, nothing move.
Weather report here said it's just rain. Impact: weak to moderate.
What do you think about that? It's ok?