ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[StormClouds63]

Looking at WV loop ... will the system basically follow that ULL (located to its west)?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Impact (if any) of the dry air/SAL still surrounding periphery of system?

[Lowpressure]

what are the winds they look for to determine if its a closed low?

West

[ConvergenceZone]

The size doesn't matter. As someone just said, if the core ghoes over the island, no matter the storm size or strength, it will get somewhat disrupted by P.R. but severely disrupted by Hispaniola.

Hopefully they will fix the GFS model soon so that it also takes in land-ineraction before spitting out it's forecasts. If the code was fixed, it would probably just be showing a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane.

[ozonepete]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

Georges took the meat of the DR and most of Cuba vertically and still was a hurricane in the keys. Size does matter.

Georges went from 120 mph as it hit DR to 75 mph as it entered Cuba. That's a pretty good knockdown.

[shaggy]

Gonna be a game changer when and if they close this off this afternoon? If its in the northern convection then its north of 15 maybe close to 16N already and that would start impacting the models some you'd think.

[cpdaman]

i'd like very much for it to explore the area NW of 15.3 56.5 or at least in the area of 14.8 57.5

[madinina]

Thanks Chris
You 're also just in yellow alert? For Emily, it was the same, Guadeloupe in orange alert before us, but finally, people was'nt ready.. I hope it'll not be the same... The last weather report was at six in the morning...

[Lowpressure]

Gonna be a game changer when and if they close this off this afternoon? If its in the northern convection then its north of 15 maybe close to 16N already and that would start impacting the models some you'd think.

Thinking it will eventually close below that Shaggy

[Recurve]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Convergence -- would be nice to know if there's research on that. Land weakens cyclones by cutting off heat energy source and also slowing winds from ground friction. A smaller wind field has less area to be disrupted, but a larger percentage is affected. Stronger systems are like running engines that can get choked off, undeveloped systems aren't running all that smoothly to be disrupted as much, without regard to size I think.

There are storms that have strengthened over the Gulf Stream and ones that have weakened, when land interaction wasn't a factor, just shows that other environmental conditions also affect the engine.

Maybe an expert will chime in.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is at 14.95N and still no west winds, so center must be south of that. Recon is finding a broad area of low pressure so I question if those 50+knot flight level winds accurately reflect the circulation. Still impressive nonetheless.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneWarning92]

Yeah i see something around 15-16 N also. im not seeing anything around 14 N.

[KWT]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

The wind direction looks right for where they are. Any LLC would be well southwest of there. Down around 14N. But I don't think it's closed off. Tropical waves can have 40-50 kt winds in squalls.

The next 30 mins will tell the tale, i wouldn't be shocked if it was quite close, though could go either way yet I suppose!

I'm also surprised you think its quite as far south as 14N, I'd have thought given the wind shift found earlier it'd be somewhere between say 14.3-14.5N, but then again your the pro!

[northjaxpro]

Looking at WV loop ... will the system basically follow that ULL (located to its west)?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Impact (if any) of the dry air/SAL still surrounding periphery of system?

Because of the huge moisture envelope which encompasses 97L, I don't think dry air will be a problem from here on out. This system has now insulated itself just about thoroughly now from any dry air intrusions in my view.

[Aric Dunn]

next set should at least show a good wind shift... maybe a slight SSW wind at least..

[Sanibel]

If that thing consolidates like it appears to be doing, look-out. It's a big one.


Looks more WNW now.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The center of Georges was over land for something like two days and still kept it's structure and Georges had amazing upper air support and a very large envelope.

[Recurve]

This pass should tell us something, wouldn't it? Looks like if there's any west component they'll cross it on this heading.

[gatorcane]

Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

[AdamFirst]

18Z BEST TRACK: AL97, 146N 572W, 45kts, 1005mb, DB INVEST