ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The center of Georges was over land for something like two days and still kept it's structure and Georges had amazing upper air support and a very large envelope.

Yes it did calmbeforethestorm. Georges was a remarkable storm to track, as it racked across the entire island of Hispaniola and also into Cuba , then still maintained its impressive structure to restrengthen into a Cat 2 cane as it passed by Key West.

[pricetag56]

what are the winds they look for to determine if its a closed low?

West

and thats from the west side of the circulation

[MWatkins]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Convergence -- would be nice to know if there's research on that. Land weakens cyclones by cutting off heat energy source and also slowing winds from ground friction. A smaller wind field has less area to be disrupted, but a larger percentage is affected. Stronger systems are like running engines that can get choked off, undeveloped systems aren't running all that smoothly to be disrupted as much, without regard to size I think.

There are storms that have strengthened over the Gulf Stream and ones that have weakened, when land interaction wasn't a factor, just shows that other environmental conditions also affect the engine.

Maybe an expert will chime in.

It depends.

If it establishes a well-defined inner core before making landfall, it will take longer for it to come back on the other side. If not, sometimes the strengthening process is actually quicker on the other side because the storm has less unwinding to do, if that makes sense.

But, the size of the envelope does give it a better chance of surviving intact than if it were a smaller system like say a Charlie.

MW

[Dave]

439
URNT15 KNHC 202053
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 25 20110820
204330 1455N 05720W 9598 00416 0065 +226 +083 123014 016 024 001 00
204400 1454N 05721W 9592 00420 0065 +228 +082 136017 019 022 000 03
204430 1453N 05722W 9589 00423 0064 +230 +083 141018 020 023 000 03
204500 1452N 05723W 9593 00418 0065 +230 +083 150018 019 022 000 00
204530 1451N 05724W 9594 00418 0064 +230 +083 141016 018 021 003 03
204600 1450N 05725W 9600 00411 0064 +230 +082 140015 016 023 002 03
204630 1449N 05727W 9589 00421 0064 +230 +082 139017 017 026 000 03
204700 1448N 05728W 9597 00413 0063 +231 +083 143017 018 025 001 00
204730 1447N 05729W 9597 00413 0062 +230 +083 142020 020 027 000 00
204800 1446N 05730W 9587 00422 0063 +220 +083 146021 022 024 003 00
204830 1445N 05732W 9586 00421 0062 +221 +082 149019 020 023 000 00
204900 1444N 05733W 9602 00408 0061 +231 +078 143020 021 024 002 03
204930 1443N 05734W 9587 00420 0061 +228 +078 146021 022 027 000 03
205000 1442N 05735W 9593 00414 0060 +228 +079 150022 022 028 000 00
205030 1441N 05736W 9594 00412 0059 +227 +080 153022 023 029 000 00
205100 1440N 05737W 9594 00410 0058 +225 +080 154021 021 028 001 00
205130 1439N 05738W 9593 00412 0058 +223 +080 158018 020 029 000 00
205200 1438N 05740W 9596 00410 0058 +221 +080 164018 019 025 000 00
205230 1437N 05741W 9589 00414 0057 +222 +080 178016 017 024 001 03
205300 1436N 05742W 9596 00408 0057 +223 +079 188013 014 024 000 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Recon found a wind from the direction of 188...so borderline S/SSW.

[Aric Dunn]

well winds switched so far to 188 degrees which is 5 degrees from ssw .. lol maybe next set with show at least SSW

[cpdaman]

14.6 57.7 188 degree winds

[KWT]

Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

nothing at all up there, if there is a LLC its further south near 14-14.5N looking at the obs, not to say its not going to get tucked further north in the near future.

Next recon set will tell the story one way or the other...i'm erring on the side of a sharp wave for now.

[Aric Dunn]

Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

nothing at all up there, if there is a LLC its further south near 14-14.5N looking at the obs, not to say its not going to get tucked further north in the near future.

Next recon set will tell the story one way or the other...i'm erring on the side of a sharp wave for now.

actually you both can split the difference. wind shift is actually 14.6N lol

[Sanibel]

I don't like the look of that convection. And the models ain't budgin off South Florida. Time to check hurricane check-list I think...

[cycloneye]

Updated Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1005, DB

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

Updated Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1005, DB

wow.. lol Figured they would go about that.. hard to pin point anything though without recon

[Nimbus]

well winds switched so far to 188 degrees which is 5 degrees from ssw .. lol maybe next set with show at least SSW

Well that is where the wind shift is happening "60 degrees" near 14.4. Now we wait for another fix in a few hours and see how much of a northerly component we are getting.

[CrazyC83]

Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

It's definitely not a depression. It is either a solid tropical storm or a very strong wave. Recon supports 50 kt.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm, well I think we are splitting hairs at this point. The trend is for organization. If RECON is finding SSW or South winds..its getting very close..could easily get a closed low within the next few hours after the plane has left. Given the trends, model support, SAT presentation, presence of 50-60mph winds...(yeah I know those are squalls) I wouldn't be surprised if NHC pulls the trigger this evening (by 11pm EST or earlier)

[Recurve]

Thanks Mike for that great clarification of my amateur explanation about land weakening of cyclones.

So this is bad.

[NDG]

If they keep going SW they will find the westerly winds, but no defined LLC just yet.
This is a big system taking shape!

[tolakram]

Interesting that the winds shifted a bit from the last pass and there seems to be something west of the plane now.

[canes04]

not liking this. can't imagine how she will look this time tomorrow.