ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #1021 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Is 211 or 267 good enough west winds for you? Got it.

did they turn NW .. casue the winds rotated all the wat NW after that.. cant be heading SW anymore. lol

well I guess its just light winds associated with the broad LLC

Battlebrick · #1022 Postby **Battlebrick** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:09 pm

special advisory should be coming soon, right?

calmbeforestorm1 · #1023 Postby **calmbeforestorm1** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:09 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:found west winds apparently..

So in a sense this has developed quicker then most models predicted?

Which woud cause the models to shift east if anything.

KWT · #1024 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:10 pm

Hard to argue there probably is some sort of closed circulation, just a question of whether the NHC think its defined enough to upgrade or not.

#1025 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:10 pm

I would guess worthy of a special tropical disturbance statement saying that a TD or TS appears to be forming. Tough call.

storm4u · #1026 Postby **storm4u** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:11 pm

I love seeing these turn into monsters i just hate when people are affected

Macrocane · #1027 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:12 pm

I can see a special advisory in the next couple of hours I know it's a weak "almost" west wind but they have upgraded other storms with more or less closed circulations this year, I agree that those SFMR winds are pretty impressive for an invest.

#1028 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

It's definitely not a depression. It is either a solid tropical storm or a very strong wave. Recon supports 50 kt.

Ok, I admittedly have not read a lot of the threads discussing 97L today(honey do's)but what am I missing here? How can you say it definitely is not a depression but say it is either a solid TS or very strong wave. Please help me understand. I will probably be hiding my head in embarrassment once this is answered.

#1029 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:14 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

It's definitely not a depression. It is either a solid tropical storm or a very strong wave. Recon supports 50 kt.

Ok, I admittedly have not read a lot of the threads discussing 97L today(honey do's)but what am I missing here? How can you say it definitely is not a depression but say it is either a solid TS or very strong wave. Please help me understand. I will probably be hiding my head in embarrassment once this is answered.

Flight level winds of 53 knots earlier, plus SFMR winds of 45 to 50 knots uncontaminated.

Website · #1030 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:14 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

It's definitely not a depression. It is either a solid tropical storm or a very strong wave. Recon supports 50 kt.

Ok, I admittedly have not read a lot of the threads discussing 97L today(honey do's)but what am I missing here? How can you say it definitely is not a depression but say it is either a solid TS or very strong wave. Please help me understand. I will probably be hiding my head in embarrassment once this is answered.

Recon found 50 kt surface winds... best track says 45 kts

#1031 Postby **NDG** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:14 pm

NDG wrote:If they keep going SW they will find the westerly winds, but no defined LLC just yet.
This is a big system taking shape!

#1032 Postby **Dave** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:14 pm

208
URNT15 KNHC 202113
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 27 20110820
210330 1408N 05810W 9594 00420 0067 +235 +091 324004 004 015 001 00
210400 1407N 05811W 9594 00421 0068 +235 +092 342004 005 018 001 00
210430 1405N 05813W 9595 00420 0068 +231 +091 353004 005 018 000 00
210500 1404N 05814W 9593 00422 0069 +230 +092 003004 005 017 000 00
210530 1403N 05816W 9593 00422 0068 +230 +092 017004 004 017 000 00
210600 1401N 05817W 9594 00420 0067 +230 +092 025005 005 019 000 00
210630 1400N 05819W 9594 00420 0067 +229 +092 018005 006 017 001 03
210700 1358N 05820W 9595 00419 0068 +228 +092 025006 007 /// /// 03
210730 1357N 05821W 9592 00423 0068 +227 +092 030006 007 020 000 03
210800 1355N 05823W 9595 00421 0068 +226 +092 027006 007 019 001 00
210830 1354N 05824W 9595 00421 0069 +225 +092 027007 008 020 000 00
210900 1353N 05826W 9595 00420 0069 +228 +093 023007 008 017 001 03
210930 1351N 05826W 9588 00426 0068 +230 +092 009004 005 /// /// 03
211000 1350N 05825W 9591 00423 0067 +230 +092 016001 002 018 000 03
211030 1350N 05822W 9593 00421 0068 +231 +093 112001 001 019 000 00
211100 1350N 05821W 9608 00408 0066 +235 +094 040001 001 016 001 00
211130 1350N 05821W 9608 00408 0064 +235 +093 034001 001 017 001 00
211200 1350N 05817W 9593 00417 0063 +234 +091 065002 002 018 000 00
211230 1350N 05816W 9581 00429 0065 +230 +087 172001 002 019 000 00
211300 1350N 05814W 9593 00422 0068 +230 +086 172003 004 018 000 00
$$
;

Someone want to take over HDOBS? Need a break...thanks!

#1033 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:15 pm

50kt winds found in cells north of what may be a forming LLC. A lot of 40 to 50kt winds at that. If it's upgraded it will be right to a TS.

#1034 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:15 pm

Off topic: are we nearing a record for number of people logged in. I see 327 guests and *alot* of members logged in right now :eek:

#1035 Postby **Dave** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:15 pm

Anyone wants to take over hdobs for awhile be my guest...need a break for awhile. thanks!

storm4u · #1036 Postby **storm4u** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:15 pm

the winds support a tropical storm they just need a defined west wind which they are trying to find

vbhoutex wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Huge convection burst blowing up now between 15N and 16N. There has got to be something there.......I just can't see anything lower than 15N.

I would classify this as a depression right now.

It's definitely not a depression. It is either a solid tropical storm or a very strong wave. Recon supports 50 kt.

Ok, I admittedly have not read a lot of the threads discussing 97L today(honey do's)but what am I missing here? How can you say it definitely is not a depression but say it is either a solid TS or very strong wave. Please help me understand. I will probably be hiding my head in embarrassment once this is answered.

ConvergenceZone · #1037 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:16 pm

That's a fairly hot looking tower that's popped. Image just updated about 2 minutes ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Macrocane · #1038 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:16 pm

Dave wrote:Anyone wants to take over hdobs for awhile be my guest...need a break for awhile. thanks!

I can take them for a while

#1039 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:16 pm

Recon just did a U-turn...didn't they see the No U-Turns Allowed sign? :lol:

storm4u · #1040 Postby **storm4u** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:17 pm

they had to have found something worth looking at

brunota2003 wrote:Recon just did a U-turn...didn't they see the No U-Turns Allowed sign?

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