ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[brunota2003]

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.

Also:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm curious about the intensity forecast by the NHC.

probably going to pretty steady for the next couple days. till it really gets defined.

[KWT]

That 2nd VDM did the trick nicely, hard to ignoren that really even if its not that well defined.

Hello Irene...lets see what problems you can cause for us all!

[storm4u]

Irene is here!!!

[WmE]

I'm curious about the intensity forecast by the NHC.

probably going to pretty steady for the next couple days. till it really gets defined.

Yeah probably.

[tolakram]

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection still north of the center. Wondering if it will stay that way for long though.

[Battlebrick]

special advisory or 8 pm?

[brunota2003]

Yep...heading for home...long days ahead starting early tomorrow!

000
URNT15 KNHC 202233
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 35 20110820
222330 1434N 05807W 6970 03168 0083 +087 +024 162011 011 015 000 00
222400 1436N 05810W 6971 03168 0085 +085 +024 165010 010 017 000 00
222430 1437N 05812W 6971 03165 0089 +083 +023 178008 009 016 000 00
222500 1438N 05815W 6974 03164 0088 +085 +023 190008 009 015 000 00
222530 1438N 05815W 6974 03164 0085 +085 +023 193008 009 015 000 00
222600 1441N 05820W 6971 03163 0085 +088 +022 191007 008 019 000 00
222630 1442N 05822W 6971 03165 0086 +085 +021 194007 007 017 000 03
222700 1443N 05824W 6970 03166 0087 +085 +019 202007 007 016 000 00
222730 1444N 05827W 6963 03175 0088 +085 +019 201006 006 018 000 00
222800 1445N 05829W 6973 03163 0088 +084 +019 176005 006 018 000 00
222830 1447N 05832W 6965 03171 0080 +087 +018 144004 004 017 000 00
222900 1448N 05834W 6659 03550 0087 +067 +011 126004 006 016 000 00
222930 1449N 05836W 6288 04029 0082 +045 +000 203004 006 018 000 03
223000 1450N 05838W 5913 04515 0048 +025 -011 223005 006 /// /// 03
223030 1451N 05840W 5598 04975 0049 +001 -020 225007 008 /// /// 03
223100 1451N 05841W 5403 05255 0259 -018 -029 204007 008 016 000 03
223130 1452N 05843W 5224 05530 0277 -033 -038 193008 008 016 000 03
223200 1453N 05845W 5034 05821 0297 -050 //// 178008 009 012 000 05
223230 1454N 05847W 4877 06068 0314 -065 //// 177011 012 015 000 01
223300 1455N 05848W 4727 06314 0330 -078 //// 181012 012 016 000 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Convection still north of the center. Wondering if it will stay that way for long though.

[img]http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/4812/209l.jpg[/mg]

Should eventually be pulled to the convection or reform closer to it.

[Buck]

Definitely special advisory here.

[pricetag56]

That 2nd VDM did the trick nicely, hard to ignoren that really even if its not that well defined.

Hello Irene...lets see what problems you can cause for us all!

wat exactly does VDM stand for

[thundercam96]

We Now Have Tropical Storm Irene. Official Advisorys Should Be Coming Soon...........

[WmE]

That 2nd VDM did the trick nicely, hard to ignoren that really even if its not that well defined.

Hello Irene...lets see what problems you can cause for us all!

wat exactly does VDM stand for

Vortex Data Message.

[chrisjslucia]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

Madinina, I've just checked again and no weather report at the local Saint Lucia met office site since yesterday at 6 pm. The three day forecast is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday....
But given the location being highlighted here of the centre of the system and the wind speeds from the recon, I think we are both due to get some strong winds and plenty of rain tonight as there doesn't seem much movement to the north. Maybe Gusty has some more up to date information?

madinina/chrisjslucia:

Given the current state of disorganization and the fact that the center of what will be Irene will pass to the north of Martinique in the early morning hours, I don't think your weather will be too bad. The heavy squalls with 50-60 mph winds appear to be on a track to pass to your north tonight. South of the center/track, winds are generally light, less than 20 mph. Though it's possible Irene-to-be could become a bit better organized over the next 6-8 hours before passing to your north, I think you can expect winds generally in the 10-20 mph range but you could see some gusts as high as 40-50 mph if any squalls develop to the south of the center tonight. You may have already seen heavier rain today than you'll see tonight.

Thanks Wxman, that's a great help. Yes I suspect the Leewards will get far more rain than us. It is just weird looking at satellite images of most of the region being covered in cloud and it is as still as a pond out here!

[KWT]

Convection still north of the center. Wondering if it will stay that way for long though.

[img]http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/4812/209l.jpg[/mg]

Should eventually be pulled to the convection or reform closer to it.

Yep thats the area to watch, makes perfect sense for that to happen with the LLC not all that well formed.

what TS irene does mean is we are going to be getting alot more RECON! Good times!

[Aric Dunn]

Convection still north of the center. Wondering if it will stay that way for long though.

[img]http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/4812/209l.jpg[/mg]

Should eventually be pulled to the convection or reform closer to it.

Yep thats the area to watch, makes perfect sense for that to happen with the LLC not all that well formed.

what TS irene does mean is we are going to be getting alot more RECON! Good times!

yep, and models will have to adjust depending on how far north it reforms...

and we also get radar first from Martinique then PR

[northjaxpro]

That 2nd VDM did the trick nicely, hard to ignoren that really even if its not that well defined.

Hello Irene...lets see what problems you can cause for us all!

A very good call by NHC to have the Hurricane Huinters do one last final pass before heading home. They indeed were able to close off the LLC a second time to have this system officially declared Irene. If they did not do that last pass, we would have likely had to wait overnight for the next Recon mission to find what was out there.

Now, the real serious business begins folks of honing in tracking this system now that we offically have an established LLC.

[jinftl]

will we see advisories before 11pm?

[Aric Dunn]

watch out PR.. the N side is large wet and could be stronger than models are forecasting.