ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

#1221 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:45 pm

jinftl wrote:will we see advisories before 11pm?

Think the latest would be 8PM, prob earlier. They are surely putting the forecast package together as we type in here...

MW

#1222 Postby **AdamFirst** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:45 pm

jinftl wrote:will we see advisories before 11pm?

Yes. 8 PM the latest since they need to issue warnings for the islands.

thundercam96 · #1223 Postby **thundercam96** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:46 pm

jinftl wrote:will we see advisories before 11pm?

May See Advisorys Very Soon. It will be TS Irene with 50 mph winds .

#1224 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:46 pm

The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

Jimsot · #1225 Postby **Jimsot** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:46 pm

A very scary sunset here on Anguilla with a pink tinted cloudy sky, heavy clouds off to the south and east. Not gonna be fun tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #1226 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:46 pm

TS Irene is the 3rd earliest for the 9th Atlantic TS to form.

First was Irene 2005 (August 7th).
Second was #9 1936 (August 20th, 06Z).

Gustywind · #1227 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:47 pm

Latest IR

#1228 Postby **Dave** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:47 pm

Thanks Tim for breaking me today...after doing Harvey then this one I was starting to get blurry eyed. lol Looks like many more to come though.

#1229 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:48 pm

brunota2003 wrote:The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

Yes,I agree about that. It was a steady increase in % with good wordings.

#1230 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:49 pm

So how much longer till we know "for sure" that we have TD9 or Irene? I am just itching to see what the latest spaghetti models and official track looks like. Hope my friends in the Islands of the EC will be ok

Aric Dunn · #1231 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:TS Irene is the 3rd earliest for the 9th Atlantic TS to form.

First was Irene 2005 (August 7th).
Second was #9 1936 (August 20th, 06Z).

the Irony there is great.. Irene holds the 1st and 3rd spot..

pricetag56 · #1232 Postby **pricetag56** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:49 pm

WmE wrote:
pricetag56 wrote:
KWT wrote:That 2nd VDM did the trick nicely, hard to ignoren that really even if its not that well defined.

Hello Irene...lets see what problems you can cause for us all!

wat exactly does VDM stand for

Vortex Data Message.

that gives them info about the center?

#1233 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:50 pm

Dave wrote:Thanks Tim for breaking me today...after doing Harvey then this one I was starting to get blurry eyed. lol Looks like many more to come though.

It will be many missions for Irene so rest before that.

#1234 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:50 pm

No prob! We had a "fight" over who would do the obs :lol:

(okay, not really a fight) Yes, many more to come...and I'll be in the field again starting early Monday morning, so I'll be out of the loop.

jinftl · #1235 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:51 pm

The 5-day cone from the NHC will certainly be an interesting map to view on the first advisory!!!

Aric Dunn · #1236 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:51 pm

very good pass here.. the center is clearly discernible.. at least the curved band to the right of it..

shaggy · #1237 Postby **shaggy** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:51 pm

If it reforms or gets pulled further north under the convection and becomes stronger before interaction with the big islands what kind of shift could we see in the models? Usually stronger and further north means feeling any weaknesses easier for storms but thats not a set rule by any means. I think the next 36 hours of models and how fast Irene can intensify could make for a torublesome forecast for the NHC.

johngaltfla · #1238 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:52 pm

pricetag56 wrote:that gives them info about the center?

The VDM is the data about the center. Trust me the senior mets and military mets here will walk you through all the data as the deluge is now going to start every couple of hours as this storm is inside a very dangerous area:

A Herbert Box.

:eek:

#1239 Postby **Dave** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:No prob! We had a "fight" over who would do the obs (okay, not really a fight) Yes, many more to come...and I'll be in the field again starting early Monday morning, so I'll be out of the loop.

Ok y'all stop your 'fight'n bunch of hillbillies! Plenty to go around I'm sure...and no I'm not talking bout moonshine, talkin about missions. Gotcha Luis, and I'm sure you'll be around too. :lol:

#1240 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:53 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

By far the biggest blowup of convection we have seen.

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